Self-Driving Car Progress-Free 2019
This article claims that there won't be any progress in autonomous vehicles in 2019. It seems the reason all the big car companies jumped into the autonomous car game was to slow its progress.
[sarcasm]What a surprise[/quote] If this article is correct and 2019 will just be a year of milking along the status quo of driving dependency in transportation, can we expect to see any other progress in LCF in 2019? If so, what areas of LCF do you expect to see growth/progress in in the coming year? - ride-sharing? - public transit (local and/or long distance)? - infrastructure? - electric bikes and scooters and/or other small vehicles? - innovations in work management that facilitate more telecommuting and reduce commuting - more local retail and delivery options? - more people choosing transportation biking? Or will 2019 be a year of automotive cultural perseverance and growth, with LCF further marginalized? https://jalopnik.com/2019-will-not-b...ion-1831398495 |
Originally Posted by tandempower
(Post 20725903)
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Originally Posted by tyrion
(Post 20725932)
That's a stupid article. A handful of anecdotes in support of a straw man. 2019 won't be a "revolution" in self driving cars, just steady progress in both technology and marketing.
They do this 'gradual incremental progress' thing with everything from fuel efficiency to safety improvements to electric motors. It's not limited to the auto industry. It's an obvious business tactic not to progress any faster than the market makes you. If you form a convoy and all slow down together, you can charge everyone waiting on you more over a longer period for incremental speed increases. So if self-driving innovations are going to go slow and gradual, the question is how else LCF can find a way around the traffic jam of business dragging its feet. Or maybe we should just be patient and go back to driving cars until the industry can get around to offering us alternatives. I'm sure that is what they would love us to do. |
Originally Posted by tandempower
(Post 20725949)
They do this 'gradual incremental progress' thing with everything from fuel efficiency to safety improvements to electric motors. It's not limited to the auto industry. It's an obvious business tactic not to progress any faster than the market makes you. "Slowing down the convoy" is a much less feasible strategy, these days. |
I didn't read the linked article.
But slowing down a tech by the existing players doing a slow, incremental approach doesn't sound like it will work. There's too much investment money that will finance just about any unlikely idea, even if there's no obvious way it will ever pay off. Self driving cars probably still can't drive in snow or even in heavy rain, and mostly are in areas that have been mapped and scanned in great detail. But google is ramping up Waymo car access to the general public in Arizona. |
Originally Posted by rm -rf
(Post 20726079)
I didn't read the linked article.
But slowing down a tech by the existing players doing a slow, incremental approach doesn't sound like it will work. There's too much investment money that will finance just about any unlikely idea, even if there's no obvious way it will ever pay off. Self driving cars probably still can't drive in snow or even in heavy rain, and mostly are in areas that have been mapped and scanned in great detail. But google is ramping up Waymo car access to the general public in Arizona. |
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hype_cycle
Let others burn cash on the front end, then take over. |
Some folks seem not to realize that a lot of companies which are not car companies are doing the cutting-edge work on AVs.
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Originally Posted by Maelochs
(Post 20726249)
Some folks seem not to realize that a lot of companies which are not car companies are doing the cutting-edge work on AVs.
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Originally Posted by tandempower
(Post 20726160)
I've said in past threads that they should focus on getting certain routes established as fixed transit lines, where the vehicles have been programmed to function like rail vehicles except without rails.
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Originally Posted by tyrion
(Post 20725932)
2019 won't be a "revolution" in self driving cars, just steady progress in both technology and marketing.
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Originally Posted by tandempower
(Post 20725903)
This article claims that there won't be any progress in autonomous vehicles in 2019. It seems the reason all the big car companies jumped into the autonomous car game was to slow its progress.
Do you think Tesla made their auto-pilot less capable than they could have so they could get sued when it causes accidents? There are thousands of articles that directly contradict what I say and paint a rosy picture. Problem is they're ALL written by journalists trying to get readership by hyping the technology. You see nothing but flowery abstract language when discussing specific technical issues or a discussion of only those things we've solved as though we're there now. |
Originally Posted by tyrion
(Post 20726292)
They're going to map everything they possibly can. The cost for this is relatively low, and reward for reducing restrictions on driverless transpo is high.
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Research should be spent on eliminating cars in my opinion, not self driving. Man we depend on technology too much....
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Originally Posted by Walter S
(Post 20727308)
That's a made up story based on no factual evidence.
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I think a more practical approach would be to certain highways being self driving for long driving trips. But even that has a hole in the theory, when the self driving car puts you at your exit and the driver accidentally fell asleep!!!.. why not have a super advanced transit system?? Probabky because car companies rule the world, thru jobs and oil and economy!!
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Originally Posted by rossiny
(Post 20727354)
I think a more practical approach would be to certain highways being self driving for long driving trips. But even that has a hole in the theory, when the self driving car puts you at your exit and the driver accidentally fell asleep!!!.. why not have a super advanced transit system?? Probabky because car companies rule the world, thru jobs and oil and economy!!
Certain highways and non-highway routes could simply be designated as fixed transit routes for self-driving vehicles and people would know to be careful there and keep their kids and pets safe, etc, the same way they do around a train track, truck area, or other higher risk area. Designating such routes would make it easier to make custom transit routes that fit your schedule and connections. The problem is that the people who work in driving jobs are scared to lose them, so even though no one really wants to drive a bus long distance in the middle of the night, they'd rather do it and get the pay than to lose job opportunities to self-driving technology. |
Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
(Post 20727343)
Not likely are "they" going to "map" variables, like the locations of every other parked or moving vehicle on the road, every wandering animal, jaywalker, child chasing a ball, icy spots, pothole, construction or anything else that isn't permanently attached to the street or road.
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Originally Posted by rossiny
(Post 20727354)
I think a more practical approach would be...
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Originally Posted by tyrion
(Post 20727517)
Correct. The mapping will focus on things that are relatively static. That's normally how mapping works.
All the Radar and LIDAR and smart guys in Silicon Valley in existence may not be good enough to reliably and consistently drive a car without human control/oversight in the midst of such variables, except in tightly controlled locations and favorable weather environments. The economics of such restricted use doesn't look favorable except for dreamers who don't care about reality, or speculators willing to lose billions of other people's dollars and have access to apparently bottomless purses of venture capital. |
Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
(Post 20727519)
You are in the wrong thread, as well as the wrong BF sub-forum to post a so-called "more practical approach." This is the place to post cockamamy conspiracy theories.
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
(Post 20727539)
The economics of such restricted use doesn't look favorable except for dreamers who don't care about reality, or speculators willing to lose billions of other people's dollars and have access to apparently bottomless purses of venture capital.
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Can you own a self-driving car and still call yourself car-free ??
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Originally Posted by tyrion
(Post 20727566)
On the contrary, it looks favorable to people with very successful track records in high tech investment. You won't find anyone knowledgeable in technology businesses betting against self driving cars.
What you'll see soon is more and more increments towards self driving such as self parking, adaptive cruise control, lane keeping, etc. and you'll think self driving cars are right around the corner and you'll be dead wrong because of the need for better sensors, AI, legal hurdles, and more. |
IMO as we get closer to self driving cars, driving will become more dangerous. The problem is the way people react to emergencies. If you're at the wheel of the car not depending on any automation such as adaptive cruise control and lane keeping then your senses are sharp and your responses are quick as you're ready for anything. Then you drive more and more autonomous vehicles and while the owner's manual will be full of boldface disclaimers (absolving the manufacturer of liability) you will find it irresistible to rely on automation more and more especially as it continues to perform well. Once you stop paying close attention to the road and keep getting good feedback you'll spend longer and longer periods of time (like seconds) not looking at the road. Even if your car senses a situation that it can't handle and wants you to take over, you're not ready to suddenly respond to an emergency situation whose development you didn't even witness. People don't function well like that.
Note that the reason manufacturers are doing this automation has NOTHING to do with safety. They just want a revenue stream that funds more and more self driving development without biting off the whole enchilada. |
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