Bike shortages are about to get very real
 

Talked to my shop and was told that manufacturers are almost running out of their yearly allocations. It's not because of covid and production halt but because the demand has been considerably greater than last year. Most manufacturers order production runs for the entire year ahead of time by almost a year and once they're delivered it's next to impossible to get a second batch that wasn't ordered way ahead of time.

They are expecting 2020 models to be completely sold out for the year by June-July. So if anyone is planning on getting a new ride you better jump on it or wait until the 2021 production run.

Because of the lockdowns, outdoor activities are becoming popular. Same thing with home gym equipment.

My fave shop is almost completely out of sub-$1,000 bikes -- people are buying them for commuting since they are staying away from public transportation. Shop owner told me that they just can't get anymore such bikes, at least from their brands - QBP, Kona, and a couple others.

I'm just tickled the hear this! Couldn't sell my Raleigh Tamland a few months ago, even at a give away price:foo: Time for a CL listing!

I'm good to go. Just got a fresh drivetrain on the Revolt, Defy is only a couple of months old. Next bike on my radar is a 2021 that I'll probably wait until later next year to get anyway. Maybe find one gently used that someone buys in the frenzy and then never rides. :thumb:

Expensive bikes are somewhat available but lower cost are getting scarce. It is caused in part by the tarriffs on the fall/winter then the virus shutdown in Jan-Mar. that halted production that woukd have been making the bikes then to sell now. High end bikes are still fairly available. Some parts and wheels are getting scarce too.

time to sell my older one for $600 and UPGRADE!

e bikes are really hot too. but the bike shops are weeks out on services now.

So this causes a bit of inner turmoil....

local Giant dealer has a Revolt E+ Pro in my size. I really do want an E bike. (just because)
However I had other plans and an E-bike just doesn't fit into them.....

Well all this shutdown kind of has me in a situation anyways. I Got the Van, got the MTB, Now I just need a Gravel bike to pack in the van with the MTB and Go! But If I can't get out this year in the van then Yes I'd probably rather have the Revolt E+ pro and keep my Supersix EVO himod for local riding.

In the meantime I am still being indecisive on a gravel bike. I am also holding out to see what Giant brings with the Revolt Advanced for 2021. I am hoping for a GRX 1x.

the two bikes being argued are the Revolt Advanced vs Niner RLT RDO.... both being available in multiple locations and also from the Factory and I don't see a shortage. One local shop has a 2019 Revolt advanced 1 for 1900$ Hmm but I'd rather have Shimano brakes. If I had to deal with SRAM brakes then there is the Whipshot 853 Force from Bikesdirect.

Sold an older bike on CL a few weeks ago, it was purchased fairly quickly and for a good price, by someone wanting to get out doors and ride since Gyms were closed.

I bought 4 bikes last week after shopping for a couple months. All four are Specialized Sirrus X models . . . but none of the 4 was my first choice, all were Plan B selections, due to the lack of avails for the models, colors and price points on the four I was seeking.

I had contacted so many dealers that Specialized CALLED ME . . . but they didn't offer any solution for the bikes I was seeking, they just wanted to ensure the dealers were responding to my inquiries. Their search tool involves a FIND NEAR ME coordinate, and I had entered inquiries in nearly 10 different zip codes to search various markets within a day's drive. I figured it would result in a day to drive up, then overnight, and a day to drive back with 4 bikes. I live near Miami, and I'm accustomed to driving up to 1000 miles to job sites on the east coast and mid-Atlantic . . . so if I could bundle all 4 bikes under one destination, that was my plan.

Anyway, I had to move up on all 4 bikes in model and price, and choose alternate colors, to find 4 available. I've pieced it together now by buying two at LBSs and the other two ordered from Specialized and shipped to one of the LBSs. And I was willing to buy 2 Canyons and go with just 2 Sirrus Xs, but the avail dates of the Canyons keeps moving later and later, and now the earliest avail on the Canyon I was considering shows mid-June. I was tired of the Canyon date moving later and later, so when I located the 4 Sirrus Xs I pulled the trigger, and spent about $1200 more than I'd targeted.

There's an article in today's New York Times describing the circumstances of the delays in the supply lines for bike priced below $1000 USD.
I cannot share the link here, maybe I do not yet have enough posts to allow it.

Looks like not just the virus response, but tariffs are also a factor. Only pointing this out because it's interesting to see how national decisions like that trickle down.

Yup, Trump's tariffs are, predictably, making a bad situation worse -- in many markets. And consumers here in the US are paying virtually the entire cost. Tariffs should have never been imposed - they almost always hurt the country that imposes them - but now would be the perfect time to end them.

I’m setting a reminder on my phone for summer 2021 to check Craigslist for good deals.

Playing the long game... My thoughts exactly...

Why did you buy 4 of the same bike?

one for myself, and three for my sons

The bike biz was in horrible condition before this hit, so when demand explodes it's not surprising there are shortages.

Let's not get into politics here please.

I was clueless of these market forces when the pandemic hit. I just found myself suddenly with no work travel and no commute to office, working only from home I had more time to organize my riding schedule and figured it was a chance to spend more time on the bike. Honestly, I thought "it's a good time to support the local shop", I thought places would be closed and laying off their guys, etc etc . . . I didn't connect the dots on the demand side (more folks grabbing their bike just like I was) or on the supply side (with all the materials coming out of China and Taiwan). I had planned to buy bikes for my kids for the summer anyway, and in the course of evolving from browsing to shopping to buying I started to understand how acute these shortages really are.

So I identified a couple models that interested me, and not being the most patient guy to start with, I started getting a little more active in locating what I wanted. A couple discussions with the local shop enlightened me that a bunch of folks were ahead of me, the store was selling out their inventory and telling me they were unsure when they'd have new supply, etc. As I better understood how severely the supply lines were being impacted and how long it might take to catch up (late summer at best-case??) I decided to increase what I would spend to get the bikes while I still could. On a positive note, my kids now have cooler bikes than any of them deserve as they're not geeky about bikes like I am, and I've increased my road mileage substantially, launched into gravel riding after pondering it for months, and lost 27 pounds (and counting) since mid-March!

If you are referring to my post above (#15), that is not about politics; it is simply economic analysis, and is directly relevant to the thread topic. You can look in virtually any introductory economics textbook for the theoretical analysis, and you can start here with the practical application to the tariffs on imports from China.
This is interesting, too.

In my estimation as a moderator, the discussion of tarries could become political, which is not allowed in this forum. That's all, no deeper meaning. If I thought your previous posts were over the line they would already have been deleted. Make sense?

A shot over the bow. :)

Regarding your comment about the bike biz being in rough shape before the pandemic: yeah, but I'm not sure this is helping much. My fave big-city shop is working hard, fixing people's old bikes and selling sub-$1,000 bikes to people who want them for commuting and a safe outdoor activity. But they are almost sold out, and can't get more anytime soon. So, just as the virus will likely hit us with a "second wave," I wonder if there will be a big slump in the bike industry, once inventory is completely gone.

It's not just a bike shortage.....

the ports were sitting very empty back in Febuary/March anyone paying attention. You guys are just seeing the bike shortage because It directly effects you (your hobby/passion). Tariffs have nothing to do with a shortage. Tariffs only raised the cost of said bikes.

From the article:
”=inheritBut the demand could not have come at a worse time.Most American importers have kept limited inventory since 2018, when President Trump ordered new tariffs on goods produced in China, where some parts used on nearly all bikes sold in the United States are made.

As a result, in 2019 the number of bikes imported into the United States dropped by around 25 percent compared with 2018, according to Mr. Margevicius. In the first quarter of this year, imports were down by around 30 percent compared to the same period in 2019.”

I am willing to pay more for imports if it means more jobs for Americans! Except wheels, I can buy 3 sets of Light bicycle wheels for the same price as a set of zipps.

I'd also glady pay the tariff on many bicycles than to Over pay Salsa for bicycle of the same quality as a China made bicycle.

Actually they do. When tariffs were expected to hit 25% two things happened (1) manufacturers hurried to produce what they could ship before the tarriffs hit then slowed production appreciably after in anticipation of a slump in orders; and (2) bike shops shifted ordering to buy fewer bikes at higher cost. Both have led to shortages of many bike models in the US market.

but... apparently... the consummers don't mind paying the tariffs, and are buying bikes.

So the question is "Who" made an issue over the Tariffs? The same "Who" that are making an issue of it here and now.

You claimed tarrifs have nothing to do with the current shortage. 2 posters have now provided information to refute your claim. One cited an article and the other owns a bike shop so thats kinda sorta direct knowledge.

Whether consumers will pay the terrific or not has nothing to with if your comment was wrong, which it was. The tarrifs contributed to the current shortage because once in effect, production was reduced and imports were reduced.

Again, whether or not consumers will pay the increased price has no bearing on the accuracy of their comments.

Also, consumers having to pay more money due to the government hiking up taxes on the product(which is what this is) is mind-boggling.
With tarrifs, consumers are financially penalized in the end. Thats unfortunate.