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-   -   Driverless cars today... where will they be in 5 years... (https://www.bikeforums.net/showthread.php?t=1187381)

genec 11-05-19 02:58 AM

Driverless cars today... where will they be in 5 years...
 
Waymo has rolled out completely driverless vehicles in parts of Chandler AZ. No safety driver.

They are mapping LA; they are looking to move forward and are working with other partners. And yes, they see cyclists.

https://techcrunch.com/2019/11/01/ha...de-in-a-waymo/

rseeker 11-05-19 05:28 AM

Stephen Dubner (Freakonomics) interviews Ford CEO about the future of Ford vehicles. (Every step you take, every move you make, they'll be watching you.)

Can an Industrial Giant Become a Tech Darling? (Ep. 357) - Freakonomics Freakonomics

Harry Shearer (The Simpsons, Spinal Tap) interviews Dr. Shoshana Zuboff on her recent book The Age of Surveillance Capitalism.

https://www.wwno.org/post/le-show-week-nov-3-2019

CliffordK 11-05-19 06:18 AM

Serving time for vehicular homicide?

https://live.staticflickr.com/5735/2...3904bfb3_b.jpg

noisebeam 11-05-19 10:01 AM

Ha, I signed up to be a guinea pig under NDA for 3mo, but never had a reason to use the free service since I cycle everywhere local. I thought it would be good as a backup in case I got a mechanical (although there probably isn't space in the trunk filled with electronics). They still use my commute route for training, with and without human in driver seat.

I-Like-To-Bike 11-05-19 10:54 AM


Originally Posted by genec (Post 21195295)
Driverless cars today... where will they be in 5 years...

The same place they are today, almost nowhere , except for the few isolated (good weather, non freezing, low speed, well marked wide roads, relatively low density) locations where the Governor/local leadership have kow-towed to Goggle and its ilk for relative chicken feed and allow the promoters free reign to expose the general public/unwilling guinea pigs without serious regulatory oversight, to the promoters' test vehicles/prototypes and software trial and errors on public highways.

I-Like-To-Bike 11-05-19 10:58 AM


Originally Posted by noisebeam (Post 21195667)
Ha, I signed up to be a guinea pig under NDA for 3mo, but never had a reason to use the free service since I cycle everywhere local. I thought it would be good as a backup in case I got a mechanical (although there probably isn't space in the trunk filled with electronics). They still use my commute route for training, with and without human in driver seat.

Free taxi service available for use when needed does sound useful. Advantages to the consumer that the taxi is driverless is what exactly other than that Google is paying for the cost of this service?

colorider 11-05-19 11:42 AM

It will be interesting. I recently bought a 2020 Subaru Forester and it practically drives itself at times. It has front and side sensors that keep the car in its lane, slows down when traffic in front slows down. It takes some getting used to after driving a 2007 RAV4 previously. lol

Seattle Forrest 11-05-19 12:11 PM


Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike (Post 21195744)
The same place they are today, almost nowhere , except for the few isolated (good weather, non freezing, low speed, well marked wide roads, relatively low density) locations where the Governor/local leadership have kow-towed to Goggle and its ilk for relative chicken feed and allow the promoters free reign to expose the general public/unwilling guinea pigs without serious regulatory oversight, to the promoters' test vehicles/prototypes and software trial and errors on public highways.

Is that what your crystal ball says? Did you get it in a box of cracker jacks?

That was an I Like to Bike style post.

I-Like-To-Bike 11-05-19 12:24 PM


Originally Posted by Seattle Forrest (Post 21195855)
Is that what your crystal ball says? Did you get it in a box of cracker jacks?

That was an I Like to Bike style post.

That is exactly what my crystal ball says based on the backwards trajectory of so-called progress over the past two years in this endeavor!

What is your Cracker Jack opinion and what is it based on other than ad hominem arguments?

Any progress to report other than that based on Elon Musk brand Unicorn Horn Dust, Techno Promoter/Fan Boy pipe dreams, or an A&S-type car bashing fantasy of bicycling bliss without evil human motorists?

Surely you can find a click bait headline to post from somewhere that will support whatever you would like to think the status of driverless cars will be in the next 5 years, though not as many as dreamy headlines as seen just two years ago before the Uber-pedestrian fatality "glitch" slowed down the spewing of unabashed dreamy hype.

I-Like-To-Bike 11-05-19 12:39 PM


Originally Posted by colorider (Post 21195814)
It will be interesting. I recently bought a 2020 Subaru Forester and it practically drives itself at times. It has front and side sensors that keep the car in its lane, slows down when traffic in front slows down. It takes some getting used to after driving a 2007 RAV4 previously. lol

"Practically drives itself" (i.e. advanced cruise control useful mostly, if not totally, on limited access highways) is not a driverless car. Do you safely take naps, or read a book while behind the wheel of your Suburu when it is practically driving itself?

colorider 11-05-19 12:43 PM


Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike (Post 21195903)
"Practically drives itself" (i.e. advanced cruise control useful mostly, if not totally, on limited access highways) is not a driverless car. Do you safely take naps, or read a book while behind the wheel of your Suburu when it is practically driving itself?

Of course not. I was just commenting on how the car's sensors are pretty impressive. They are a long way from my previous car which was 13 years older.

79pmooney 11-05-19 12:58 PM

Driverless cars today... where will they be in 5 years...

When some genius hack masters reprogramming GPS satellites; they'll all end up at an auction block in Kansas.

I-Like-To-Bike 11-05-19 01:14 PM


Originally Posted by 79pmooney (Post 21195934)
Driverless cars today... where will they be in 5 years...

When some genius hack masters reprogramming GPS satellites; they'll all end up at an auction block in Kansas.

Which will get to the auction block first, the Uber/Lyft "robo-car" enterprise or their rental scooter enterprise?

Luckily for Waymo, Google has the deep pockets to fund their driverless car experiment; until upper management gets tired of the lack of progress towards generating a product that can produce foreseeable profits.

genec 11-05-19 01:15 PM


Originally Posted by 79pmooney (Post 21195934)
Driverless cars today... where will they be in 5 years...

When some genius hack masters reprogramming GPS satellites; they'll all end up at an auction block in Kansas.

GPS is only used for gross route mapping. Just like human drivers use it.

Sensors are used for the moment to moment driving. That's how they see cyclists, new road construction and constantly changing road scene.

I-Like-To-Bike 11-05-19 02:26 PM


Originally Posted by genec (Post 21195962)
Sensors are used for the moment to moment driving. That's how they see cyclists, new road construction and constantly changing road scene.

Are the currently fielded sensors able to reliably anticipate and react appropriately in real time(other than come to a stop whenever confused) to what the operators (unpredictable humans or unrecognized/non-standardized proprietary driverless software/hardware) of other nearby vehicles do in moment to moment driving, let alone predict and react appropriately in real time to the actions of unpredictable pedestrians and animals?

Has there been any credible progress on any of the driverless car players sharing software technology and recognition data so that their vehicles can safely recognize and interact with each other in real time driving scenarios?

PedalingWalrus 11-05-19 02:41 PM

You won't have to tip the driver

genec 11-05-19 03:42 PM


Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike (Post 21196078)
Are the currently fielded sensors able to reliably anticipate and react appropriately in real time(other than come to a stop whenever confused) to what the operators (unpredictable humans or unrecognized/non-standardized proprietary driverless software/hardware) of other nearby vehicles do in moment to moment driving, let alone predict and react appropriately in real time to the actions of unpredictable pedestrians and animals?

Has there been any credible progress on any of the driverless car players sharing software technology and recognition data so that their vehicles can safely recognize and interact with each other in real time driving scenarios?

I have no idea... I don't develop the cars or software.

There is a video, at the link I offered, showing a driverless car reacting to boxes falling off a truck and a cyclist swerving. Maybe a better reaction than the "unpredictable humans" driving on the roads today.

But I don't know.

Nor do I know if Waymo plans on sharing/selling their software to other operators.

But I do know the roads today are filled with "unpredictable human" drivers who often fail to "predict and react appropriately in real time to the actions of unpredictable pedestrians and animals, AND other drivers" to the tune of some 40,000+ deaths a year.

What's your solution? Denial?

Seattle Forrest 11-05-19 03:51 PM

Do the self driving cars ever have drinking problems? Are they addicted to Facebook and text messages? Do they ever get road rage and create dangerous conditions for everybody around them to get revenge? Do they get tired and fall asleep at the wheel?

noisebeam 11-05-19 04:17 PM

If I stick my left arm out the ones behind me slow down and will let me merge - all of them every time. Same if I drift out of shoulder or bike lane - they slow and move left. If I stop too close at a red light (like 18" away adjacent to front bumper) they wont go on green until I do. I have fun playing with them. They are highly responsive and have no personality.

coffeesnob 11-05-19 04:55 PM

the driverless cars will be filled with the AI robots umpiring baseball.

RubeRad 11-05-19 07:11 PM


Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike (Post 21195744)
The same place they are today, almost nowhere , except for the few isolated (good weather, non freezing, low speed, well marked wide roads, relatively low density) locations where the Governor/local leadership have kow-towed to Goggle and its ilk for relative chicken feed and allow the promoters free reign to expose the general public/unwilling guinea pigs without serious regulatory oversight, to the promoters' test vehicles/prototypes and software trial and errors on public highways.

You sound skeptical...

I think we should have a quantitative predict-o-poll, like as of Jan 1 2025, how many Level 5 driverless vehicles will be operating in the United States?
(a) 0
(b) 1-100
(c) 101-1000
(d) 1001-10000
(e) 10001-100000
(f) 100001-1000000
(g) more than 1 million

Then in 2025 we could resurrect the zombie thread and see how things developed vs how people thought.

I think I'd go for (e) for 5 years, but (g) for 10 years.

Note this layout of the levels of automation mentions Waymo as an example of Level 4.

If we don't make it to Level 5 ("monitor and maneuver through all road conditions and require no human interventions whatsoever, eliminating the need for a steering wheel and pedals"), my prediction is it will be due to regulatory/insurance/policy/public trust/perception issues, not technical issues. And I'm not saying those other issues are non-issues and technology should just win, I'm just saying the technology is the easy part.

And of course, if we don't make it to Level 5, robot-car hawks will claim that it's a technology problem (not safe enough, not reliable enough...). And people like me will say it's a public education problem (the robot-car hawks are too stupid and/or stubborn to understand that the technology is good enough)

[EDIT] thinkng a little more, I think Level 5 is too ambitious for 5 years. Level 4 is more like it. I think Level 5, strictly interpreted, may never be possible. There will probably always be some small percentage of situations where the car will be programmed to decide that the risk is unacceptable and say something like "Due to construction/weather/whatever, I cannot drive any closer to your destination, you'll have to walk from here, or can I call you a pedicab or manual taxi" or whatever.

I-Like-To-Bike 11-05-19 08:44 PM


Originally Posted by Seattle Forrest (Post 21196215)
Do the self driving cars ever have drinking problems? Are they addicted to Facebook and text messages? Do they ever get road rage and create dangerous conditions for everybody around them to get revenge? Do they get tired and fall asleep at the wheel?


Originally Posted by genec (Post 21196207)

But I do know the roads today are filled with "unpredictable human" drivers who often fail to "predict and react appropriately in real time to the actions of unpredictable pedestrians and animals, AND other drivers" to the tune of some 40,000+ deaths a year.

What's your solution? Denial?

Rehashing statements of a problem to solve are NOT a solution, NOR evidence that various "robo car" promoters are any closer to fielding driver less (Level 5) vehicles than they were two years ago, or that they will be any closer in 5 years.

I-Like-To-Bike 11-05-19 09:26 PM


Originally Posted by RubeRad (Post 21196445)
You sound skeptical...
And of course, if we don't make it to Level 5, robot-car hawks will claim that it's a technology problem (not safe enough, not reliable enough...). And people like me will say it's a public education problem (the robot-car hawks are too stupid and/or stubborn to understand that the technology is good enough)

Really, good enough for what? Educate me.



Originally Posted by RubeRad (Post 21196445)
[EDIT] thinkng a little more, I think Level 5 is too ambitious for 5 years. Level 4 is more like it. I think Level 5, strictly interpreted, may never be possible. There will probably always be some small percentage of situations where the car will be programmed to decide that the risk is unacceptable and say something like "Due to construction/weather/whatever, I cannot drive any closer to your destination, you'll have to walk from here, or can I call you a pedicab or manual taxi" or whatever.

A little thinking and skepticism is useful for seeing behind the curtain of hype and wishful thinking.

Do you understand that level 5 vehicles have to be capable of driving without human assistance or oversight beyond the boundaries of tiny geo-fenced fair weather enclaves, limited to minutely mapped and coordinated with the installed vehicle proprietary software, well marked lanes, and close to ideal road conditions that are without snow, ice, fog or slippery surfaces. DO you understand that none exist now, nor have any of the promoters so far demonstrated any Level 5 prototypes that would indicate that they have "solved" the "technology problem" or will be able to solve the "technology problem" of level 5 in the next 5 years or will be capable of producing and fielding safe Level 5 vehicles in the next 5 years.

Wishful thinking and hype do not make a safe driver less vehicle any closer to being produced.

The "solution" may be what you are hinting at - change the definition of "self driving vehicles" to whatever the promoters are capable of producing and declare mission accomplished, no matter how limited the usefulness, safety and practicality is of a sort-of, kind-of, almost-like a driver less vehicle.

Hondo Gravel 11-05-19 09:40 PM

A few years ago my neighbor’s wife drove into the Hondo post office taken out a wall. Good thing no one was hurt or killed. We all know she was on her cell phone :lol: She won’t admit it so it is best to leave it as it is. My foot slipped on the gas when I wanted o hit the breaks :innocent: I don’t expect driverless cars here anytime soon. Maybe in San Antonio. A driverless car taking her to the post office would have been a better alternative.

I-Like-To-Bike 11-05-19 10:24 PM


Originally Posted by Hondo Gravel (Post 21196630)
A few years ago my neighbor’s wife drove into the Hondo post office taken out a wall. Good thing no one was hurt or killed. We all know she was on her cell phone :lol: She won’t admit it so it is best to leave it as it is. My foot slipped on the gas when I wanted o hit the breaks :innocent: I don’t expect driverless cars here anytime soon. Maybe in San Antonio. A driverless car taking her to the post office would have been a better alternative.

Are there taxis with human drivers in Hondo? Would one of them be a viable alternative for people who are incapable of driving safely?

BTW, how do "we all know" that the neighbor's wife was on her cell phone at the time of the accident? Were "we" talking to her then?


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