Let's Talk About Thibaut
 

A week ago on stage 10 Groupama-FDJ got caught napping and Thibaut Pinot lost 1:40 to Geraint Thomas, today he's 0:15 behind him. In the ITT he lost 35 secs. to Thomas but then we hit the Pyrenees and he won stage 14 and in stage 15 came second the clear winner in the GC battle.

Of the GC contenders he's clearly the rider in top form and in David Gaudu has a team mate who can take him to the last couple of kms. where he has the ability to launch blistering attacks.

Thibaut Pinot is my pick for the yellow jersey in Paris.

Buchmann (BOH) is looking like a strong contender for a podium place.

Pinot, Buchmann, Thomas is my pick for podium.

Year after year, people always forget that the TDF is a 3 week race, a marathon of marathons.

Remember Simon Yates' epic implosion at the 2018 Giro? He lost 40 minutes in a single stage.

I'd still put my money on Geraint Thomas because I think he's burned fewer matches than Pinot or Alaphillipe heading into week 3. There will be an epic showdown in the Alps, where I predict Pinot will lose a handful of minutes, and Alaphillipe will lose 10+ minutes.

Yes, anything can happen and no one can foretell all the possible misfortunes; however, Caretaker's point still stands, as of now Pinot is the strongest. I don't know if he'll win, but he's definitely got to be a favorite as of now. If he didn't get caught out in the crosswinds on stage 10, one can only imagine...

It's not just Thomas that's not looking like he can win, but his whole team seems not to be having the same mojo as previous years. His only hope is, that he truly does have more "matches" remaining.


Next week will be very interesting....

Even though conventional wisdom says JA will fold, he’s surprised everyone and proven all the naysayers wrong up until this point.

Pinot does indeed appear to be the strongest right now, but as we know that can change at any moment. I’m kicking myself for not picking him in the fantasy league, opting for Bardet instead.

Sure hope JA can continue to surprise...

The Guardian (Jeremy Whittle) predicts Bernal, Pinot, Thomas.

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/20...geraint-thomas

Mainly to what it calls Bernal's 'consistency in the mountains' and that when Thomas fades, as it predicts, Ineos will switch their support.

We will see.

I do not think Thomas will "fade". He may not be as fast, or as fit, but he may be getting fitter. He is too experienced to fade. To me he may not have what it takes to win, but that is just that some others have more of it.

As a fan - I'm not liking the switcharoo thing. Choose your rider and go with them. I can get behind a team the does not win.
One that does not know who is their leader it like so many messed up companies I deal with and not interesting. I understand the Froome thing was not planned, but they need to get their act together in a way the fans understand. The leader should be Thomas, as he is defending and more experienced. As it should have been Hinault when Lemond was better.

To each their own. After so many years of Sky dominance, it was kind of interesting last year to see the internal drama play out. I started out rooting against Froome, and then ended up rooting for Thomas. And this year, Ineos at least looks vulnerable, which is refreshing. But I suspect that you are right - Thomas won last year because he had the goods, and there's every reason to expect that he's going to be strong in the Alps this coming week.

Now you're asking for a fight, there.