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-   -   Covid 19 - what is your personal concern threshold? (https://www.bikeforums.net/showthread.php?t=1195481)

BookFinder 03-09-20 05:45 PM

Covid 19 - what is your personal concern threshold?
 
It's dominating the news. Part of me says that at my age (65 later this month) I should be concerned. Another part of me thinks the panic is unjustified.

What say ye?

Via edit: Well shucks - working on the laptop and left off the "9." Understand the topic to be "covid-19"

DiabloScott 03-09-20 05:49 PM


Originally Posted by BookFinder (Post 21359766)
It's dominating the news. Part of my says that at my age (64 later this month) I should be concerned. Another part of me thinks the panic is unjustified.

What say ye?

I'm not so concerned for myself (age 60) - as much as for the problems with hospitals being overwhelmed and such and all the civilization problems that go along with the epidemic.

CliffordK 03-09-20 06:22 PM

I'm not sure we're to the point where "Panic" is justified.

However, you and many readers on this board are now getting into the age group where mortality starts going up. Now, if you are a fit cyclist, you may well be able to weather the storm, but you could have family members who couldn't. I know my mother, and many of her neighbors are 25 years older than me, and I worry about them.

I managed to get (viral) pneumonia a couple of years ago. For some reason it has taken absolutely forever to clear from the system. I think my O2 Sats fell down to the mid 70's, and my HR didn't drop below 100 BPM for a couple of weeks. It wasn't a fun period of life. :mad: It could well have killed me if I hadn't been reasonably fit going into the ordeal.

Heck if I know what "underlying conditions" mean, but I'd prefer not get Coronavirus, and try my luck again.

We have a serious problem in the USA (and probably similar to what is happening in Europe), where the CDC decided that they only needed to monitor those they deemed to have "close contacts", and sent quite a few home for "home quarantine". At one time, they may well have had 10,000 people under surveillance, but had only administered < 500 coronavirus tests. All the while recognising that there were quite a few cases of only mild illness, or even asymptomatic illness that could spread the disease. There was no community monitoring. So, they were administering thousands of influenza tests, many coming back negative, but no coronavirus tests.

There are indications that the current Washington outbreak was directly connected to a patient that was quarantined over a month ago. And, somehow the virus was spreading in the community despite the quarantine, with no additional surveillance. And, now they've had 17 deaths in a single nursing home. Now, I realize that nursing homes are a unique environment of people living there for their final months/years. But... still... 17 deaths and counting?

It is impossible to tell if the current 600 cases across the USA are accurate, or if those are just the tip of the iceberg. I'd expect the numbers to be at least 10x that, so perhaps 6,000 to 10,000 cases nationwide, and we've likely already had quite a few undiagnosed deaths.

On the Grand Princess, it was likely a US Citizen who was "Patient Zero", and has infected dozens of Americans during the first cruise, and an unknown number for the second cruise.

Still out of > 300 million in the USA, that is just a drop in the bucket.

I'm hoping we are hitting the end of the flu season now, and the coronavirus spread will wane, but it could well sweep across the USA this fall, with nothing to stop it if they don't come up with a good vaccine. And, while it may wane here in the north, it could wreck havoc in the south.

So... not at a panic, but at least annoyed.

TakingMyTime 03-09-20 06:23 PM

I'm relatively healthy for my age (65). I take precautions but I'm still going to the gym and would not have a problem going out to dinner, a movie, etc. I guess I'm just a fatalist. If I get it, I get it. I'm also trying not to be too cavalier about it. I don't want my wife to put "I told you so" on my tombstone.

ThermionicScott 03-09-20 06:26 PM

I voted "Dead certain" that I will get it, but I'm not worried...

Hondo Gravel 03-09-20 06:28 PM

Going to KISS concert next Saturday in Lafayette Louisiana so I’m watching closely....

BenzFanatic 03-09-20 06:40 PM

I think I'm about 100x more likely to die in my commute to work in the next few weeks. But I am sitting on a high horse with probably 6 months worth of TP for myself.

CliffordK 03-09-20 06:49 PM


Originally Posted by BenzFanatic (Post 21359837)
But I am sitting on a high horse with probably 6 months worth of TP for myself.

I've changed my personal hygiene to reduce my use of TP. Ever since one of the environmental groups made a big campaign confounding "Virgin Wood" and "Virgin Forests". Nonetheless, I decided to minimize the TP that I flushed.

So I haven't bought any new TP for years.

I did buy some extra groceries, but unfortunately find myself eating them. :mad:

Rajflyboy 03-09-20 06:53 PM

Many more people dying from the flu than this beer virus

I think so far 17 women that have the corona virus have had healthy babies.

this is mostly a big nothing burger

CliffordK 03-09-20 07:08 PM


Originally Posted by Rajflyboy (Post 21359860)
Many more people dying from the flu than this beer virus

I think so far 17 women that have the corona virus have had healthy babies.

this is mostly a big nothing burger

We know the numbers in Wuhan/Hubei have multiplied a lot, and absolutely overwhelmed the medical system there. And China has used drastic measures to control the spread of the virus in the country.

Here is a video posted by another member about exponential growth.


Originally Posted by Seattle Forrest (Post 21358504)

I don't believe that we only have 600 cases in the USA at this moment. The real number, however, is difficult to ascertain without a lot more tests. But, the point of the exponential growth is that even 600 cases can rapidly be > than a million in the blink of an eye.

Hopefully summer will give us a reprieve, but if the a vaccine isn't developed, the chances are almost certain that the virus will be back this fall, and will be difficult to stop.

And, unfortunately, the vaccine isn't predicted until hopefully the 2021/2022 flu season, and thus next fall/winter could be rough.

Marylander 03-09-20 07:35 PM

I've had the common cold (another coronavirus) but don't remember ever having the seasonal flu (yet another coronavirus). I have found that my immune system works great when I'm getting lots of regular exercise and I've been getting lots of regular exercise for years (I should caveat that my immune system goes down the toilet if I overdo the exercise). I'm sure it will suck if I somehow end up with this new one but I don't expect to.

FiftySix 03-09-20 07:49 PM

I've been watching it passively mostly because you can't avoid the news of it. This website is interesting if only for the graphics of it all. https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashb...23467b48e9ecf6

My biggest worry is what the economy will do, market downturns, price of oil dropping, etc. This city's business owners and managers start tightening up the budgets when stuff like this happens. Which means job cuts or pay cuts. My pay goes up and down with my customer's willingness to part with their money. My last pay cut was in 2012 and I get the feeling if the market tanks too much, I'll be getting another pay cut. My sales dollars have been flat, while my service dollars have been high, but sales is what makes the bosses and our vendors happy.

As far as my family or myself getting sick from Covid 19, we will go to the local clinic and pay cash for diagnosis and prescriptions. We haven't had health insurance since November 2016, so it is what it is.

mtb_addict 03-09-20 08:09 PM

i am more worried about a large scale quarantine than anything else.

you see in Wuhan, millions of citizens became prisoners in their own homes for 2 months, because the infection is out of control and hospital are overwhelmed. millions trapped, cant get food or emergency services, and starving or living on ramen noodles for weeks.

StupidlyBrave 03-09-20 08:43 PM

I am self quarantined right now.

I have had no exposure to this virus (that I know of), but caught a nasty head cold. And I travel for business nowadays. I figure folks would freak if I show up with sniffles-n-coughs either at the airport or at the client's office. So I don't. I'll take my temp on Friday and cancel next week's travel if necessary.

Mad Honk 03-09-20 09:08 PM

I'm more worried about the response from MP and the WH than the virus itself ! Viruses come and go and even Ebola runs through stages of remittance before re-surging. But this one is one that has grown exponentially because of airbourne transmission. How do we combat that? not so much retorical question but a reality about air- bourne virus's. Smiles, MH

Rage 03-09-20 10:02 PM

I’m actually hoping that you guys can help me figure out how concerned I should be.
It’s hard to reconcile what is in the news with what I am seeing on the street. I was at the mall today and it was packed to the gills.
Was at Costco, Jetro and Shop-rite yesterday. Also packed.
No decline in pedestrian or street traffic that I can detect. Subways and buses are as crowded as ever.
I live in NYC btw. If the virus gets out into the open here, it’s going to spread like wildfire.

canklecat 03-09-20 10:17 PM

Not too worried. I'm paying attention only to science based reports, not politicians or headlines. My Facebook contacts are the worst. They all have some agenda, driven by politics, emotion or personal finances based on their investments. And they're all blaming "the media" for their own choices to indulge in hysteria. The "media" ain't the problem. There's plenty of factual info available. People see what they want to see.

Available data so far indicates it's highly contagious, compared with the "common cold" caused by other coronaviruses, but seems dangerous mainly to folks around age 70 and older. IOW, pretty much like any respiratory illness.

At 62 I'm not quite in the danger range and while I've had chronic allergies and asthma, and many childhood bouts with pneumonia, I've been remarkably free of problems due to colds and flu as an adult. I get my flu shots, pneumonia shot every few years, take reasonable precautions, try to eat well, avoid stress and get enough rest.

Seattle Forrest 03-09-20 10:22 PM


Originally Posted by CliffordK (Post 21359851)
I've changed my personal hygiene to reduce my use of TP. Ever since one of the environmental groups made a big campaign confounding "Virgin Wood" and "Virgin Forests". Nonetheless, I decided to minimize the TP that I flushed.

So I haven't bought any new TP for years.

I did buy some extra groceries, but unfortunately find myself eating them. :mad:

​​​​​​I had never heard of anyone buying used toilet paper before!

CliffordK 03-09-20 10:52 PM


Originally Posted by Seattle Forrest (Post 21360046)
​​​​​​I had never heard of anyone buying used toilet paper before!

I think the confusion with the environmental group was that TP can be made out of say new wood vs recycled newspapers (softened). But, for whatever reason the US TP industry almost exclusively uses new wood to make it. Some of it may be old growth, but most would be second growth, or perhaps plantation wood, but not much recycled paper products.

However, I do use some TP, but a roll can last me a very long time. I can't remember the last time I've hung a new roll... 5+ years ago?

mtb_addict 03-10-20 12:00 AM

u can wash yur butt after number 2 like Europeans, and need very small amount of tp.

Machka 03-10-20 01:49 AM

I figure there's about a 90% chance I'll get it.

But I don't smoke so that's something in my favour.

ahsposo 03-10-20 04:27 AM


Originally Posted by Seattle Forrest (Post 21360046)
​​​​​​I had never heard of anyone buying used toilet paper before!

There's bones_mcbones who has some museum of the stuff or something.

ahsposo 03-10-20 04:32 AM

Personally I am not at all worried about covid-1, it's pretty old news. Covid-19 is the latest. I just keep a bottle of Tito's vodka going. You know, for "hand sanitation" purposes.

GadgetGirlIL 03-10-20 04:55 AM

I'm most worried about the impact it will have on the economy. I work for a university and the contingency planning is in full swing. Next week is spring break and I'm betting someone will bring back a bonus from their travels.

indyfabz 03-10-20 05:43 AM


Originally Posted by ahsposo (Post 21360174)
Personally I am not at all worried about covid-1, it's pretty old news. Covid-19 is the latest. I just keep a bottle of Tito's vodka going. You know, for "hand sanitation" purposes.

R.I.P.

https://www.wjbf.com/top-stories/don...and-sanitizer/


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