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-   -   The TdF is too predictable (https://www.bikeforums.net/showthread.php?t=1178407)

Dreww10 07-15-19 12:39 PM

The TdF is too predictable
 
Year in and year out, the Tour (at least in regards to the GC) is the most predictable sporting event on the planet. We always know which team is going to win, and it's generally one, maybe two, riders on that team that, barring absolute catastrophe, are going to win. But beyond that, the high mountain stages make one of the world's premier sporting events one that could only be feasibly won by a very small handful of very lightweight riders in the field of 176. We have stars like Sagan, Cavendish, Kittel, etc. who have absolutely zero chance.

I get that the high mountain stages are a part of Tour tradition, but wouldn't a race that virtually any rider in the field could win not make it more exciting? A race where every stage truly matters in the GC and a breakaway on even a flat stage could decide the yellow jersey, and not just one or two mountaintop finishes?

Stage 8 of this year's Tour was arguably the most exciting that I've witnessed in my few short years of watching this race, and it was exactly what bike racing ought to be: tough enough to challenge everyone, but not so difficult that a non-climber can't stun the field and a good sprinter can't hang on and have a shot to win.

Over the years, they've added the climbers jersey, the sprint jersey, now the in-route time bonuses all in an effort to increase excitement, without addressing the real reason the race isn't an epic all-out affair every day.

Imagine if another form of sport rigged its game to where 98% of the players/teams genetically had no chance -- who would bother watching?

Caretaker 07-15-19 01:38 PM


Originally Posted by Dreww10 (Post 21028156)
We have stars like Sagan, Cavendish, Kittel, etc. who have absolutely zero chance.

Hmmmmm........

CyclingFever 07-15-19 03:30 PM

So you want a pack ride for 4 hours with a bunch sprint everyday?

Did you predict today? If it's so predictable find a bookie and get rich.

Dreww10 07-15-19 04:01 PM


Originally Posted by Caretaker (Post 21028287)
Hmmmmm........

I get it, they latter two aren't racing this year, but most years they are.

Dreww10 07-15-19 04:06 PM


Originally Posted by CyclingFever (Post 21028500)
So you want a pack ride for 4 hours with a bunch sprint everyday?

Did you predict today? If it's so predictable find a bookie and get rich.

Did you watch today's stage? It was a sprint stage and ended up with significant GC ramifications. If flat stages mattered more to the GC, you'd see flat stages get a little more wild.

And yes, it is predictable. Thomas and Bernal two and three, with a non-GC threat in the lead. A couple high mountain stages coming and the GC is over for everyone else. This is precisely how any honest fan would have predicted it.

sdmc530 07-15-19 04:10 PM

This year has been good. 10 stages, 10 different winners. Yes the sprinters rule the flatter stages the scrawny guys rule the hills and the GC guys are just riding with the team but this year has been good. The yellow jersey lead out the sprint, that was awesome! Froome wouldn't have done that.


If you watch the in depth interviews its pretty obvious that most guys are "service" riders and they know their roll, its how the team dynamic works. This tour has been excellent, its still really up for grabs of course.....

Nothing really new this year all in all but great racing

CyclingFever 07-15-19 05:32 PM


Originally Posted by Dreww10 (Post 21028554)
Did you watch today's stage? It was a sprint stage and ended up with significant GC ramifications. If flat stages mattered more to the GC, you'd see flat stages get a little more wild.

And yes, it is predictable. Thomas and Bernal two and three, with a non-GC threat in the lead. A couple high mountain stages coming and the GC is over for everyone else. This is precisely how any honest fan would have predicted it.

Are there Sports Books anywhere where we can place a wager? Itís a sure thing.

GrainBrain 07-15-19 07:13 PM

You could probably have no mountains and the result would be the same. It's a 3,000km death march and the GC winner will always be the guy with the best funded team. The best funded team will always be able to pay $$$ for the best riders. The best riders are the ones who are genetically blessed to recover quickly and be strong but efficient.

You act like Geraint is some twig but the guy has Olympic gold from the team pursuit so plenty of power.

Sagan's awesome, but I wonder why he gets none of the hate? He's dominated the green jersey, except when he was DQ'd in '17.

I think what would make a wild tour is if the GC winner couldn't compete with the same team the following year or two.

one4smoke 07-15-19 09:35 PM

Personally, I'd like to see every stage have about the same profile as stage 5. :thumb:

bogydave 07-15-19 09:41 PM


Originally Posted by GrainBrain (Post 21028872)
You could probably have no mountains and the result would be the same. It's a 3,000km death march and the GC winner will always be the guy with the best funded team. The best funded team will always be able to pay $$$ for the best riders. The best riders are the ones who are genetically blessed to recover quickly and be strong but efficient.

well maybe
But
CMR might need to be in the formula too
(Chemically Modified Riders)

Still fun to watch (the recording)
strategies, race events, amazing speeds,
analysis, predictions ,
so much can happen, on paper the winner
may be known,
But the race not happening on paper :)

Rajflyboy 07-16-19 09:49 AM

Somebody will beat ENEOS someday. Someday yes it will happen.

Marcus_Ti 07-16-19 09:56 AM


Originally Posted by Dreww10 (Post 21028554)
Did you watch today's stage? It was a sprint stage and ended up with significant GC ramifications. If flat stages mattered more to the GC, you'd see flat stages get a little more wild.

And yes, it is predictable. Thomas and Bernal two and three, with a non-GC threat in the lead. A couple high mountain stages coming and the GC is over for everyone else. This is precisely how any honest fan would have predicted it.

The GC is fairly well inarguably the least interesting most over-hyped contest in grand tour racing. Pay attention to the stage wins.

dstrong 07-16-19 10:22 AM


Originally Posted by Dreww10 (Post 21028156)
Imagine if another form of sport rigged its game to where 98% of the players/teams genetically had no chance -- who would bother watching?

Don't follow Formula 1. It's become a parade of cars, with 1 team taking most of the wins and only two other teams that can come close to competing with them.

I've enjoyed this year's version. A lot of great action, no gigantic pile-ups (which is always surprising in those sprint finishes) and some good hard racing.

ThermionicScott 07-16-19 09:55 PM


Originally Posted by CyclingFever (Post 21028500)
Did you predict today? If it's so predictable find a bookie and get rich.

+1. If I could predict every stage, I'd make bank and keep my trap shut about it.

ooga-booga 07-16-19 11:06 PM


Originally Posted by dstrong (Post 21029804)
Don't follow Formula 1. It's become a parade of cars, with 1 team taking most of the wins and only two other teams that can come close to competing with them.

I've enjoyed this year's version. A lot of great action, no gigantic pile-ups (which is always surprising in those sprint finishes) and some good hard racing.

super surprising. was just thinking how few first week crashes there had been...

Rollfast 07-16-19 11:27 PM

I think that if that were true then Eddy Merckx would be a very happy old Belgian.

Caretaker 07-17-19 01:58 AM

The chances a SkIneos rider winning GC is probably better than even and it's been that way at least since Nibali won in 2014 so yes who's going to be on the top step in yellow is pretty predictable although not certain. The yellow jersey is iconic and what the general mass of public focus on to the exclusion of everything else.
SkIneos are dominant (a) because they have the most money and (b) because their one and only objective is to have a rider win the GC.

Brocephus 07-17-19 06:30 AM

Meh, who cares, I don't even know who those guys are. How's Lance doing ? :roflmao:

CyclingFever 07-17-19 08:31 AM

They just interviewed him on NBCSN. Seems to be doing fine.

BKE 07-17-19 10:59 AM

Darn it, I've watched every stage on the NBCSN early coverage but had an appt. that couldn't be missed today, sorry I missed him. No big deal, it's taped.

As for predictable, 11 stages with no repeat winner has it wide open right? They say that the big mountains will drop Juju but what if his team director tells the team " this is our year, we fight for Juju (who's in the Yellow) from here all the way into Paris"? What if they do just that ? He appears to have stamina and endurance and maybe the Yellow will up his and the teams determination so who knows, he might do it. Wouldn't that be something?

Caretaker 07-17-19 11:38 AM


Originally Posted by BKE (Post 21031715)

As for predictable, 11 stages with no repeat winner has it wide open right? They say that the big mountains will drop Juju but what if his team director tells the team " this is our year, we fight for Juju (who's in the Yellow) from here all the way into Paris"? What if they do just that ? He appears to have stamina and endurance and maybe the Yellow will up his and the teams determination so who knows, he might do it. Wouldn't that be something?

What if they if they say "this is our year, we fight for Nicolau"? Nicolau Mas (+1'46") currently in 6th is officially Quick-Step's GC guy.

HardyWeinberg 07-17-19 12:39 PM


Originally Posted by Rajflyboy (Post 21029750)
Somebody will beat ENEOS someday. Someday yes it will happen.

Yesterday (or Monday, rather) definitely had me pro-Ineos. If they are smart enough to not get blown up by that, more power to them. Same for how they handled their team wipeout the day before that.

BKE 07-17-19 03:17 PM


Originally Posted by Caretaker (Post 21031799)
What if they if they say "this is our year, we fight for Nicolau"? Nicolau Mas (+1'46") currently in 6th is officially Quick-Step's GC guy.


Either, take your pick. Yesterday in your other thread I thought Juju was your man to pull off something amazing (at -1:12) but I'll go back and read your initial post. Either way, it wouldn't be Einos who most everyone seems to think it will be one of their leaders, Garnet or Bernal, but they haven't decided yet have they? For something amazing and exciting to happen from any other team would be like watching Lance or Fred L. (his one day), but then we'd have to think about Bogydaves' reference to CMR.

CyclingFever 07-17-19 03:49 PM

With Sports Books now legal in PA, NJ, and DE is there anywhere actually giving odds and taking bets on le Tour?

Dreww10 07-18-19 06:09 AM


Originally Posted by Caretaker (Post 21031127)
The chances a SkIneos rider winning GC is probably better than even and it's been that way at least since Nibali won in 2014 so yes who's going to be on the top step in yellow is pretty predictable although not certain. The yellow jersey is iconic and what the general mass of public focus on to the exclusion of everything else.
SkIneos are dominant (a) because they have the most money and (b) because their one and only objective is to have a rider win the GC.

If Ineos could simply be taken out of the race, it would be a barn-burner all the way to Paris. At this point, no one can possibly predict who will claim the third step on the podium. Unlike Ineos that is a seemingly impenetrable force every year, the other teams all have *****s in their armor and have made mistakes with their GC riders, so it's a wide-open affair beyond the likely first and second place finishers.


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