Originally Posted by Tiglath

The last resort of the desperate, parading a resume.

Sir, the argument from authority is a common fallacy. Arguments are not right because you are whatever you are. Arguments need to stand on their own merit. A highly educated man would know that.

I tell you again, and njkayaker has told you also, that the argument that the 14% applies to the individual is incorrect.

Take responsibility for what you write at the very least. Did you state and write or did you not that the 14% is:

"predictive for individual elements within the population"

If you did, and you know you did, you have not been able to demonstrate it. You've ignored every polite question I asked that would have shown that you know what you are talking about, or not.

The nykayaker gentlemen has told you in no uncertain terms that the 14% applies to the population only. And that is the end of it.

Bayes' Theorem and The Holy Trinity won't extricate you from the egregious mistake making that claim is.

By claiming now that you are properly qualified and professional in those matters you make the mistake infinitely worse because it casts a long shadow on your academic and professional competence.

Can't you see that claiming degrees and jobs can't possibly help make an incorrect claim correct? It is what it is, invalidity is inherent to it, and nothing you do for a living changes its validity and soundness.

Keep digging if you wish but a retraction of that claim is your best shot at this point to regain any credibility.

Your plea to leave you alone is unnecessary. I told you before, it's your argument I object to. This forum and thread concern safety matters. Normally bullcrap arguments are neither here nor there, but in this case they might actually have bad unintended consequences. If some impressionable people were to believe your claim might think that their individual risk is that of the population at large, and that in health and safety matters can be a very bad mistake. So, I am sorry, the falsity of your claim needs -- requires -- to be loudly exposed for what it is: raw sewage.