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Old 03-24-20, 10:51 PM
  #121  
Doge
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Originally Posted by gsteinb
OC content from what I think was the day after doge last posted

https://www.ocregister.com/2020/03/1...irus-outbreak/
Is the news "An Orange County man in his 70s with underlying health conditions has died of the novel coronavirus, the county’s first reported death from the disease."?
Then the link in the OC Register talks about LA.

I posted because folks were both showing graphs and equating Italy with USA and then CA and saying the rates were the same, which they were not.
CA had 1st death March 4th, Italy Feb 21. 17 days later Italy at 366 deaths, 17 days later for CA at 24 deaths. They are not the same rates.
Some countries have a case to death ratio that is very low. Some are over 500 cases - no deaths. Comparing cases is not useful. Under current orders the behavior is the same if you test positive or if you don't.

If you test positive stay at home. If you test negative stay at home.
Both LA county and OC have now determined testing is useless (which I posted before). They are moving more to that let it play out view, who knows how bad it will be.
I know that the data that was posted - that I "argued" about was deceiving at the time, and has proven to be. USA is not at Italy rates. CA is <10% Italy rates before the crackdown and same number of days in.

OC is still very very low in serious illnesses from CV. That is not downplaying it, just what it is. Hoag is in the heart of the OC and some more beds are being filled, but they are way down still from normal levels. They are way below the flu epidemic 2 years ago.

I'm not quite sure what you are objecting to other than me saying that certain regions are not having an issue and are not close to tracking with many models.



Anyway, I didn't see much point in going on. I was looking at data and posting data and folks were saying I was downplaying it. I certainly was downplaying the graphs and predictions, but I posted about actual numbers for actual regions.
This was pretty much the argument I posted above a few days before.

Last edited by Doge; 03-24-20 at 10:59 PM.
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