It depends. I am getting softer but I have also started a tradition of Black Friday rides. In western Oregon, that date can be very wet. I ride those on my winter bike, 35c tires (or more), fenders, Phil Wood hubs, etc. I wear enough clothing to be warm all day wet. A pannier to stash clothes.
I'm a huge fan of good modern thermals (REI, Patagonia, etc.) that work very well when soaking wet so if I bring enough, I don't have to worry how wet I get, (It is important to slow down the water change though, You used your body heat to warm that water. If it runs off and you have to warm the new water, you are losing heat.). Also the very rideable Showers Pass jackets.
Ben