Circling back around after several more weeks off and the first really significant bout of fatigue (non-active) since OTS set in almost exactly 10 months ago.
As noted, after riding off the cliff, I continued riding at a gradually decreasing level, but almost entirely just 17-25 miles at a time with zero intensity. I took the entire month of January off, rode a couple of times and realized it was a waste of time trying, took 2-3 more weeks off, rode once or twice, and took off almost the entire month of March.
Realistically, how much could one expect their HR to increase from the above scenario? My HR has gradually increased throughout this ordeal to where it's at least 20-30 bpm high for any given effort, including my HR while standing over the the bike in the driveway.
Likewise, how much fitness could one realistically lose in this case? I've read this can be about 15-20%, and most of my fellow locals seem to come back from a hiatus without losing much, but I've essentially gone from averaging 20 mph fairly easily to working really hard to average 15. I don't have a power meter, but I would guess that's an FTP drop of well over 50%. I essentially have no power, nor any endurance (about 25 miles absolute max). To tie the two questions together, at 15.5 mph avg speed my avg HR is 133. Prior to OTS, I could avg 15.0 mph on a recovery ride with an avg HR of 97-98. I can say without hesitation that I am significantly less capable now than I was when I started cycling 6 years ago.
I keep remaining hopeful that it's simply significant de-training, but the progression of symptoms, continued loss of power and increase in HR makes it evident it's not.