Originally Posted by
Doge
The whole per capita part is being ignored in most the social postings I read.
I don't have the daily number for Italy, but what I have seen on Facebook or both countries going from 1000-6000 in the same period of time is not the same rate, just like and increase of 10,11,12,13 is not the same rate as 50,51,52,53.
These posts and stats I've seen ignore the base - in this case the population. As much as 40% of the US deaths were due to external sources - boats, an identified individual bringing it in.
I also was hearing that we may all be carriers, we don't know. A pile of tests Sunday @ Hoag Hospital of folks feeling sick, coughing, runny noses - they couldn't find a carrier. The testing thing is difficult. It is hard to test 350 million people to find those 6,500 that have it. I'm sure it is more than 6,500, but I don't but this "we may all be carriers" thing.
To me the rate that matters is deaths per capita, and then the geographic location. The rate of deaths is too new a stat.
In the USA as of March 18 10:34 EDT there are 116 fatal cases. The WA elderly from one rest home and several from a cruise ship contribute a significant amount to that.
The first death from a USA caught infection was Feb 29 - 18 days ago. A rate of deaths/USA population/days since 1st death ~ nothing.
The rate of deaths in the states I live in goes between 1/day to 0 per day (CA has 11, CO 2). The rate based on population 11/39,000,000/14days = .00000002 deaths per capita per day in CA. and less in CO.
Not that any deaths are OK, and not that this could not grow and maybe what we have done will reduce contagion, but I'm far from panic as to the virus itself. It could be bad, it could get bad. It is not bad now.
That stock market, and being restricted are much bigger issues.
Right now the states I live in - CA and CO,
People don't just get it and die from this; its usually a long burn and eventually their body gives out so those numbers are bound to go up. Its really a terrible experience with life altering consequences if you survive (from what I've read). The good thing is only a small percentage have those issues, but not all are old people.
We can't compare this to China or even Italy because Italy tested well and China locked down the country very early. We're not even testing people with symptoms that are severely sick. We're also far from our peak unfortunately, the numbers are going to grow (despite hiding numbers via non testing). It's going to be grim, and we're all probably going to know a person or two. Hopefully we're all wrong. Everyday there's a 'this medicine works against it' article, maybe one of those actually does help and greatly reduces things.
My biggest frustration out of this isn't the panic, imo there's a time to panic (to an extent). Its the people on social media comparing it to H1N1, calling it a hoax, an overreaction, etc. So if that person has 1,000 followers and influence 5 to ignore protocols, those 5 could spread it or get it.