TKP, in my experience, it varies - a lot.
I got a Whoop for Christmas, so I've been trying to use that to track my training and progress. There are days when it says I'm fully recovered, and I ride like crap, and vice versa - though generally, I tend to do really well when it says I'm recovered.
But that has zero connection to how my body feels. I can feel absolutely beat, legs heavy and sore, but have a high recovery score and end up with a solid workout. And there are days I feel absolutely great, have a surprisingly low recovery score, and can't hit my numbers to save my life.