Originally Posted by ZHVelo

Sure but maybe someone has some numbers from experience, e.g. 50% increase in first year then 30% then 10% then 5% then incremental til you hit your genetic limit after 6-8 years or something like that. Or maybe add a range around those.

Anyway the reason I asked is because on one hill I improved by 4 minutes in 11 weeks. And these were more or less from scratch, so the first 11 weeks of training. If I can improve another 4 minutes, I am in the top 10. Hence, if most people make most (i.e. >50%) of their gains in the first 3 months then that means I probably won't improve by another 4 minutes, but otherwise I have a shot.