Old 11-05-19, 07:11 PM
Keepin it Wheel
RubeRad's Avatar
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: San Diego
Posts: 9,410

Bikes: Surly CrossCheck, Krampus

Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 20 Post(s)
Liked 1,028 Times in 787 Posts
Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike View Post
The same place they are today, almost nowhere , except for the few isolated (good weather, non freezing, low speed, well marked wide roads, relatively low density) locations where the Governor/local leadership have kow-towed to Goggle and its ilk for relative chicken feed and allow the promoters free reign to expose the general public/unwilling guinea pigs without serious regulatory oversight, to the promoters' test vehicles/prototypes and software trial and errors on public highways.
You sound skeptical...

I think we should have a quantitative predict-o-poll, like as of Jan 1 2025, how many Level 5 driverless vehicles will be operating in the United States?
(a) 0
(b) 1-100
(c) 101-1000
(d) 1001-10000
(e) 10001-100000
(f) 100001-1000000
(g) more than 1 million

Then in 2025 we could resurrect the zombie thread and see how things developed vs how people thought.

I think I'd go for (e) for 5 years, but (g) for 10 years.

Note this layout of the levels of automation mentions Waymo as an example of Level 4.

If we don't make it to Level 5 ("monitor and maneuver through all road conditions and require no human interventions whatsoever, eliminating the need for a steering wheel and pedals"), my prediction is it will be due to regulatory/insurance/policy/public trust/perception issues, not technical issues. And I'm not saying those other issues are non-issues and technology should just win, I'm just saying the technology is the easy part.

And of course, if we don't make it to Level 5, robot-car hawks will claim that it's a technology problem (not safe enough, not reliable enough...). And people like me will say it's a public education problem (the robot-car hawks are too stupid and/or stubborn to understand that the technology is good enough)

[EDIT] thinkng a little more, I think Level 5 is too ambitious for 5 years. Level 4 is more like it. I think Level 5, strictly interpreted, may never be possible. There will probably always be some small percentage of situations where the car will be programmed to decide that the risk is unacceptable and say something like "Due to construction/weather/whatever, I cannot drive any closer to your destination, you'll have to walk from here, or can I call you a pedicab or manual taxi" or whatever.

Last edited by RubeRad; 11-05-19 at 07:18 PM.
RubeRad is offline