This whole thread just seems so weird to me. I can't imagine not locking my bike with a high quality chain or decent u-lock if it's not within sight and within about three second's reach. If I'm leaving the bike, there's No way I'd leave panniers on it. The tent is $300. The sleeping bag is $150, sleep pad $60, pillow is $20. There's $230 in my sleep set-up. Kitchen is less, but not cheap to replace. Panniers themselves, another couple hundred? Hell, counting the little stuff too, I probably have $750-$1000 hanging off of my bike. I'd be happy if they just took a tablet or camera!
I'd almost certainly be better off if someone stole my bike than my panniers. I could acquire a bike with rack mounts that fit me well enough a lot easier than I could acquire my panniers and all of the gear in them. I also probably couldn't acquire the same quality stuff, spur of the moment, without spending much more. I'd actually end up re-buying everything twice! For example, I could get another tent spur of the moment, but probably not an ultra-light tent that was what I really wanted. I'd have to settle for a lesser tent and then still buy another one to be happy with it before my next tour. I've put a lot of thought into all of my gear, and it's taken a decent amount of time, research, and money build up my gear. If they took the bike, I find something to get me by until I get home. Then I resell the bike to reclaim some of the money and get to build up a new bike!