Yep, I think you are right. He saw going into turn 3 that the 3 in front of him were not going to stay side by side, since the upper riders had not started accelerating. So that wall was going to break up. Second or third would be a good bet for most people. First is impressive. Certainly being sheltered helps a lot too.
Originally Posted by
carleton
I think plan B (after Hoy realized that he didn't have enough time to go around Kenny) was to get in behind Levy and hope to get 3rd place in front of Kenny who was above and half a wheel behind Van Velthooven by this time. Then the touch with Van Velthooven happened which caused Van Velthooven to open the door for Hoy. Hoy then mashed the hardest 3 pedal strokes of his career. Not only did he pass Van Velthooven for 2nd, he was able to pass Levy for the win.
Mind you all three of the other guys were in the wind the last half-lap or so while Hoy was sheltered. Actually, I think Hoy was sheltered the entire race (I can't look at the video right now at work). Riding at 45+ MPH with no shelter is exhausting, and that's what Levy, Van Velthooven, and Kenny did for various amounts of time. I believe that's one reason why Hoy had the gas at the end to punch out the last move. He was less fatigued than the rest.