Originally Posted by
MoAlpha
Okay, now do you have a number between zero and 1 in mind for the probability of each of those 5-10 cars hitting you or is it zero because you run red lights? Let’s leave politics out of this. Mine are too dark and heavy to discuss in public.
Probability does not work in situations with many variables. We can discuss probabilities with playing cards, dice, roulette wheels, and any number of things that exist basically in a vacuum. EVERY motorist/car combination is a variable. Let's say 50% of the drivers who pass me are sober, paying attention, and have a vehicle in good repair. I would say the probability of them hitting me is very near zero.
Then there is the drunk guy looking at his phone driving a box van with loose steering and still under slight influence of some sleeping pills he took the night before. Will he zone out right on my position? A mile before (probability is then ZERO of hitting me because he won't ever get to me) or will he tag a parked car a mile up the road (probability of hitting me is still ZERO because he already successfully passed me). Had I left the house minutes earlier perhaps I would have been between him and the parked car a quarter-mile further up the road.
You can't figure probability on ^^THIS because there are too many variables.
Therefore: If I choose to stay home or take the bus, the probability of me being crushed on my bike is ZERO. If I ride my bike, the probability is MORE THAN ZERO. Perhaps still a "statistical zero" no doubt but tell that to the ghost bikes. If I don't cycle on open roads I will not get hit by a car. Maybe a meteor, but not a car. ACTUAL ZERO chances.
You are trying to trick me into guessing a number when nobody can do this. The SOBER driver has less of a chance of hozing me, the DRUNK/TEXTING driver has a better chance of hozing me. How am I supposed to know who is driving that next car? So I have to ASSUME the worst if I want to be ready for the drunk guy. This is a lot of stress. So, I choose to easily avoid the stress by not doing something stressful that is potentially life and limb threatening. "You can't put a price on love" and you can't put a number on highly variable occurrences.
But you already knew this.
You are happy to keep me responding and I am happy to get some typing practice.