Originally Posted by
gregf83
You're getting bogged down in minutia. Once the virus gets hold in a region there isn't a lot of difference in the growth rates. The slope of all the lines regardless of whether it's a city or country is similar. Italy was above 20% per day and now, with fairly draconian measures, they are down to about 15% a day which still results in a doubling of cases every 5 days so not very good.
California is still above 20% day over day increase so it won't be long before your state will be at similar numbers per capita to Italy.
I don't really understand what you're arguing about. It sounds like in your mind this isn't a serious situation and doesn't require any special effort. You sound very much like your president last week. Wait a couple of weeks and I suspect you'll have a different view.
A few days later, is it more apparent what I was arguing about?
The models did not apply to CA. The models better fit NYC and the surrounding area.
There was and is little reason to shut down restaurants and schools here.
SFO still has 7 deaths. Hong Kong 8.5M people 4-5 deaths, Singapore 5M people 7 deaths. The last two are places you can go out to eat.
My statement was that the death rates/capita are vastly different based on region, to which you said CA would be similar to Italy by now. Italy @16K deaths, CA @320.
I'm pretty sure I know the reason. We already had it in CA (and Hong Kong and Singapore).
Our first known case flew in from China, went to Irvine and checked in lat January to Hoag Irvine. Likely months before there were those making similar trips to SFO and LA and hitting Irvine.
Lots of us had symptoms as described for COVID-19. We got it visiting SFO, and working and living in Irvine.
Anyway the models for SoCal are so far off, it is barely worth discussing. We have about 800 people die per day in CA. COVID-19 is under 10% of those that die and it seems to be on the decline.