Last night I made the wrong decision. I listened to the weather reports last night warning of severe p.m. thunderstorms and possible flash flooding, and I got a ride to work from my wife today. The result... I missed a perfectly good 60°F day in
January in Illinois that I could have rode on summer tires for.
I thought I might ask you guys some questions about the Go or No Go decision.
1) Do you make the Go or No Go decision the night before or morning of? (or further out than that?)
2) Do you decide primarily based on weather forecasts, and if so, what are your "limits" or "decision zones"? Are you willing alter your leave time or stay at work late to wait out passing storm fronts if that's what it takes?
3) Are cumulative weekly leg fatigue or other issues significant in your decision?
4) How frequently do you regret the decision made, as I did today (in other words, what %age are you generally happy with your choice)?
I generally make a Go or No Go pick the night before and stick with it, since getting a ride changes everybody's morning schedules in the house. If I am having leg fatigue and need a day off, I will take one, and I am 95% happy with all of those decisions.
When it comes to weather, my luck is sour. I am changing my "limits" and "decision zone" as I go, but I am still probably unhappy with 60% of my No Go decisions, like today. Less than 10% of my Go decisions were bad, where it was a miserable or more dangerous commute (lightning, etc.) than expected. I guess perfection is not possible, so perhaps where I'm at is okay.
My weather factors in No Go decisions currently are:
- high headwinds (in E or W directions for me) (less of an issue on summer tires - studded tires and 20+ mph sustained headwinds give my hamstrings hell)
- severe t-storm or possible tornadic activity
- heavy snow
I don't have low or high temperature limits here in Springfield. Any day where any predicted temp is close to or below 32°F, I go with the bike with studded winter tires (now that I have 2 bikes)
None of the weather conditions are absolute No Go triggers (I am willing to wait out a passing front, etc.), and sometimes leg fatigue will tip the scales one way or the other. It's not always an easy choice.
Sorry for the long post... I hope to learn from other, more experienced commuters here.