One thing you can guarantee is that you can NOT predict how you'll use this bike nor how you'll be riding in twelve months time. The more appropriate the bike is to you now, the more likely you'll do lots of riding.
Choose a bike shop that understands you and talks to you and who isn't trying to talk you into what they have. Even people who do all their own mechanical work develop a close relationship with their lbs and you're best to choose this now. You'll bet benefits like lots of advice, help with buying stuff, suggestions on when to buy (new year's stock coming in, last year's stock being sold off, etc) and shops always have access to stuff that's not on the shop floor - you're more likely to know about this if you've already got a good relationship with the lbs.
As for which one to buy - buy the bike you fall in love with. Nothing else matters (provided it fits).