zacster

I could see the FD go away if someone would make a 2x internal hub that worked well with derailleur shifting. While I have no problem with FDs myself it does tend to be the part that doesn't work well for the casual rider, and hence are always left in the same position, usually on the small ring, or the middle of a triple.

My prediction is though is that mechanical shifting will go away when some Chinese manufacturer makes an electronic derailleur that is cheaper than any mechanical one. Shimano will race to catch up with a Sora line of Di2. Push button shifters are cheaper to make than mechanical ones for sure, batteries are ubiquitous in everything with USB charging. And once it is electronic, cassette spacing becomes a non-issue, you just use a phone app to get it right. On top of that, there should be a standard protocol to use, maybe an extension of ANT+, which all of the fitness manufacturers and software developers have used, Garmin, Wahoo, TacX, Polar, Zwift, Rouvy, etc... Why create something new when we have something that works. This way any shifter will work with any derailleur, and with any software too. Zwift would be able to auto-shift for you by sending the signal to your derailleur. Or a phone app could too. Everything should just interoperate.

With some AI software, you probably don't even need to configure it yourself. Just set the phone near rear cassette and the software will look and listen for clean shifting and voila! You're done! I guess someone will have to provide the pedal power to keep the chain moving though.