Originally Posted by
ooga-booga
i think mollema is the only one with that established capability to (very outside chance) get to third place. i was pegging him, pre-tour, anywhere from 4th-10th place. kind of like the new majka.
mollema is consistent, which is great for a gt, but rarely exciting. once the lopez, porte, alaphilippe, pinot, bardet, quintana's of the tour detonate or fail to ignite, mollema just gradually
moves up the standings. landa always seems to have a bad day or two or more early on but then crushes it in the last week and make you wonder "why isn't he closer to being in contention?"
what do you think gives trek more exposure? winning the team title, aggressively challenging 4-6 stages (consistent breakaways), porte and/or mollema finishing in the top ten, a member of the team winning a jersey (other than yellow) or a single stage win?
i'd probably go with a stage win followed by a single or two riders in the gc top ten. can't imagine any team rolling into the tdf and putting one of their major goals as winning the team title. in the third week if within striking distance? absolutely.
it seems like more of a fallback/consolation prize to me. i could be wrong tho and it would only be the third time since dinner.
Mollema is a bit like Cadel at a certain stage in his career. Never embarrassing, but all the stars need to line up for him to win the Tour. After stage 8, you can stick a fork in his podium chances. He's not going to make up a big chunk of his lost time on the top guys ever. There may be some self-destructions, but he's got a lot to make up against some rather steady riders. Without a flat ITT, Quintana isn't likely to implode. Roglic has a good track record. Bardet is riding well. Pogacar has looked good going uphill, Bernal has been composed, and there are MANY others ahead of him.
I know Trek didn't come looking for Team honors, but I think that the only stage win candidates are the two "S" guys. Their GC dreams are ruined.
I have to accept that my faith in Pinot has been misplaced. He sometimes displays brilliance, but he also is accident prone, and I think after today, he'll find himself in a mental prison of his own making. Team leader passes to Pogacar. I hope he can make it to Paris without any more stages like stage 7.