Originally Posted by
Geepig
Why do you multi-quote ***** all the time? I don't come around telling you how to build a wheel, so take your nose out of my area.
Not sure where I have my nose that is in your area.
As for multiple quotes, I use them so that I make it easier for the reader to follow my point.
When I rode the open Downs the chances of getting a puncture were minimal, other than the random rusty nail type event. When I descended into a valley it would generally be between hedges, often blackthorn. In autumn and winter this was not much of a problem, but once they started to cut the hedges many of the thorns ended up scattered on the tarmac, so the chances of a puncture rose. While one cannot predict exactly where a puncture will occur, one can calculate the risk - higher for post-cut hedged roads, lower for unhedged plateau roads. So you can map out the areas of high and low risk, which is nothing different to what businesses do every day, nothing different to the algorithms that place the adverts down the right hand side of this page - which for me this week are all scantily clad ladies advertising lingerie because of a job I had this week editing lingerie shop content online.
I’m not sure what this has to do with lingerie but aren’t you saying flats are random as I said above? While I agree that there are some places where picking up a thorn (for me, it
Tribulus terrestris), trying to predict exactly where that might happen is nearly impossible. Can you pinpoint places where you might pick up thorns after they are trimmed or do the thorns get scattered around by lots of human activity? Are thorns picked up and spread by cars? Do they fall off trucks? Are you sure they are all gone shortly after the hedges are trimmed or do you find occasionally find one out of season?
Our not being able to do something is not the same as no one being able to do it.
I suppose you could collect data and product a model to predict where objects that cause flats would be more probable from one place to another. The problem is the amount of data needed to do a even marginally useful model would be massive. Data collection take money and the more data needed, the more money that is needed. The kind of money that would be needed for a flat probability model would be astronomical and, in the end, the model would probably be mostly useless anyway. There are lots of other projects that are far more deserving.