Bike Forums - View Single Post - Impact of Pandemic on Racing

03-20-20, 03:42 PM

#73

gregf83

Senior Member

Join Date: Jun 2008

Location: Vancouver, BC

Posts: 9,201

Mentioned: 11 Post(s)

Tagged: 0 Thread(s)

Quoted: 1186 Post(s)

Likes: 112

Liked 289 Times in 177 Posts

Quote:

Originally Posted by Doge

Absolute numbers say nothing about rate to humans.

Saying there were 20K auto deaths means little. We want to know per the world, country, what state, what amount of time?
That graph only plots cases by country over time. It leave out population. Then...death rates are all over the place. If that graph showed risk of death, USA would be 1/5th the slope of Italy.
That is why I said it was misleading.

As you would expect rates are tracking a lot based on population density. Italy is about 5X the population density USA.
Areas in the USA of higher populations, and the whole eastern USA, have more cases and assumed, future death per capita, so the death rate is higher.

West Coast - we have SFO - 1095 cases, 21 deaths. Population 850K. They may become the rate of cases as Italy. As may LA.
CA as a whole, I doubt we will see much more than 1/5 the Italian rates.

My area (SoCal Orange County 1.8M population) now has lines at the grocery store.
So far - Yesterday. https://www.ochealthinfo.com/phs/abo...el_coronavirus
0 deaths (yet)
0 cases < 18
26 18-49
27 50+
26 of the cases are community contracted, 25 were contracted travel / elsewhere.

You're getting bogged down in minutia. Once the virus gets hold in a region there isn't a lot of difference in the growth rates. The slope of all the lines regardless of whether it's a city or country is similar. Italy was above 20% per day and now, with fairly draconian measures, they are down to about 15% a day which still results in a doubling of cases every 5 days so not very good.
California is still above 20% day over day increase so it won't be long before your state will be at similar numbers per capita to Italy.

I don't really understand what you're arguing about. It sounds like in your mind this isn't a serious situation and doesn't require any special effort. You sound very much like your president last week. Wait a couple of weeks and I suspect you'll have a different view.