Thread: Culture change
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Old 04-03-20, 07:38 PM
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50PlusCycling
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Here in Tokyo the population density is much higher than in New York, and despite the fact some of the earliest cases outside China occurred in Japan, the disease has been relatively slow to expand here. As I write, there are no lockdowns in Tokyo or the rest of Japan, stores and shops remain open, and people are still working. Museums and such are closed, schools are closed, sports events and tournaments are being held in empty stadiums or arenas. However, on the bright side, stores remain fully stocked, and one can buy toilet paper and things like that. Trains, subways, and buses are running as usual.

In Japan people tend to practice good personal hygiene, and this being the spring allergy season, a very large percentage of people wear face masks, as they have been doing for more than a century. With the virus outbreak, nearly everyone is wearing a mask. After the SARS outbreak a dozen years ago or so, stores and public buildings in Japan began placing hand sanitizer at their entrances, and though the outbreak eventually ended, stores and shops still keep hand sanitizers out front. These are generally alcohol sprays, and they seem to work pretty well. Though it is hard to practice anything like "social distancing" in Tokyo, people (other than train perverts) are not touchy-feely, so far the spread of the virus is not nearly as strong as in other countries.

Japan has a pretty good medical system, which has always been about 60% over-utilized, that means 60% of people who see a doctor or go to a hospital needn't have bothered. But on the positive side, this has caused Japan to build a larger number of clinics and hospitals. In America there are something like 2.3 hospital beds for every 1000 people, while Japan has some 16.8 beds for every 1000 people.

For the moment, the only thing we have close to a real figure in the coronavirus crisis is the number of fatalities, but even this number is far from exact. This is because in parts of the US, some hospitals are marking all respiratory-related deaths as possible coronavirus cases, while in other places people who were not tested before death are not tested afterward, so it is unknown if they died from the virus or not. Many of those who died and tested positive for the virus were not actually killed by it, but by pre-existing illnesses which would have killed them regardless.

Looking at the overall fatality rates around the world, these seem to be leveling off in places like Italy and Spain, France is beginning to level off. But the UK, Germany, and the US are not yet showing signs of leveling off. As for lockdowns, in Europe these seem to have had no effect, the virus spreads as quickly in locked down countries as it does in countries which are not locked down. The only place where a lockdown seems to have been effective is South Korea. But in South Korea the lockdown was drastically enforced, with all people being carefully tracked at all times, and with mass testing of the population. It seems the more people who are tested, the more cases they find, but the fatality rates also decline.

At the moment, it is hard to say what is going to happen in the future, but hopefully the virus should be played out by late summer.
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