If you ride enough, it would appear you could come out ahead, basically because you’re being subsidized by other purchasers who ride little.
You do need to consider the time value of money. The $425 comes out of your pocket today. The charge for the replacement cassette may be two years down the road. Return on $425 in a balanced portfolio will be enough to replace a cassette every couple of years. I realize it won’t replace a Red cassette, but most $4000 bikes come with much cheaper cassettes. Ultegra level cassettes can be had for around $40 bucks.
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You could fall off a cliff and die.
You could get lost and die.
You could hit a tree and die.
OR YOU COULD STAY HOME AND FALL OFF THE COUCH AND DIE.