I have been mulling over this thread for the past week, as I am a bike Friday fan (even though I don't own one).
Brompton has it easy: one frame, one size. very limited variation of parts, very minimal real innovation or need to update tooling, high profit margins, very enthusiastic user base. Very distinct niche.
Brompton is extremely limited, and IMHO an overpriced factory bike (but I still love mine)
Bike Friday:. Multiple very different models. Bespoke only. Multiple tooling and skills needed to accommodate very different models (haul a day, vs pakit, vs osata, vs pocket rocket, etc). Higher skill welding needed. Higher labor costs. No marketing. Very limited profit margins
IMHO, very inexpensive for a bespoke bike. Comparing bike Friday to Moots, Waterford, or Sevens makes more sense.
Bike Friday has multiple challenges it will need to address:
- marketing/demand.
The bike market has softened considerably, even as costs have gone way up. Yan had a thread on this a few months ago.
Bike Friday doesn't market. Everyone knows a brompton, or Dahon, or Tern....bike Friday gets me blank stares from patients.
- cost/labor/logistics
Frankly, skilled American labor is expensive. As a small family business, my guess is that they are paying people that they can't justify/afford, at cost to the bottom line.
I know this because my business is the same way. I tend to be too soft on my staff
In contrast, no such problems at Dahon, tern, downtube, brompton, Ries en Muller, Pacific cycles...
- too many models
Unless they constantly sell all the models at equal amounts, I would recommend cutting some of them.
- pricing too low
IMHO, there's a strange position in the middle where you're not Walmart cheap or Nordstrom. You're in the middle like Macy's or Sears.
This is a horrible place to be.
When my practice fees were in the middle, we were treated like crap. We had low demand (they must be bad if they charge so little). Conversely, we had people complain about pricing (why are you more than Western dental).
To survive, we had to do a massive price adjustment three years ago...or close.
The insurance companies were paying us 30% or our fees from 2010. Things were not sustainable.
After correcting our fees, we were in Nordstrom territory. We still provide Nordstrom quality. However, now our patients value is more.
- Lack of strategy from management
We will have a very nasty worldwide recession very soon. Bike Friday will be hit extremely hard, and won't be able to rely on non-American markets to shield them.
If management has their head in the sand, bike Friday will be doomed despite whatever capital investment is given
In contrast, my tiny dental practice has prepared for the recession for the past 4 years. We are also bracing ourselves for the chicanery that insurance companies are increasing pulling.
At least every 3 months, we try to assess if we are doing the right thing.
I wish bike Friday the best, but they will need to dramatically change things