Stage 20
B-M all in for the shark, early. Carapaz tough to shake. Landa the wild card. I'm at 60-40 whether he gets in a good dig and moves up to 3rd or 2nd, or finishes with the bunch (or worse if he serves Carapaz, which is in itself a coin flip).
Another 60-40: Nibali goes for it, explodes, and finishes after the final TT in 3rd or 4th -- Nibali goes for it and and exploded Carapaz, and then it's a question of where Landa ends up.
I think there are going to be top GC riders and stage hunters scattered all over the place on the front of the race, and can't wait to see what bizarre +/- fleeting alliances emerge.