It seems as if we may have drifted a bit from wil we see self driving cars soon to solving the problems of self driving cars once they get here. My skepticism comes from how lone it has taken to get EVs on the road from when we were promised. They may be here now and ready to proliferate as a choice for the average driver but it was a very long time coming and they still have a way to go. Just from a personal perspective I started looking into EVs way back in the early 70s when I first got into cycling as an alternative. 40 to 49 years doesn't seem like a long time but as mtb addict it is a long way from the low hanging fruit to the viable product in the case of transportation vehicles.
My take is they may have much of the ground work laid out but there seems to be some serious road blocks to getting self driving cars onto the the dealer lots and into the public's hands. I have been reading some statements by Musk about the self driving Teslas and he assured the investors that once the system is developed for safe self driving cars "all" models of Teslas have or will have the hardware necessary to be self driving. Once the programs are available that is. My question is will that decision be Musk's to make or will the government and lawyers make that decision?
I only use Tesla because I have only tried a Tesla with the range that would interest me in an EV today. With continuing infrastructure of course. I am not sure even Musk can make a prediction as to when self driving cars can replace manual driving cars. How long will it take for people to transition? Will everyone want to transition? There are still a number of people that refuse to drive a vehicle with an automatic. There are even some that seem to feel they don't want a car at all so self driving would be against their principals I guess.
As long as we are projecting, if they ever do come up with self driving cars or transportation pods and Lyft and Uber get their hands on them we could see the elimination of buses and Taxis even in the larger urban centers. Self driving vehicles can pic you up and drop you off point to point, your home to office and back home. They could take to to the airport or the store or a movie or out to dinner. Your child can have a self driving car take them to school or an after school program. On demand transportation would be a reality. Even in the suburbs people could have their own self driving car, or one for every member of the family like a cell phone. No I don't know if that is how it will work but it sounds nice to me. No sitting in the hot sun or cold rain waiting for a bus that comes when they want to send one and stops running when they want. As long as we are speculating.