Originally Posted by
topflightpro
... A week ago, we were at 1000. Now we are at more than 6000. We are very closely following the spread rates seen in Italy, ...
The whole per capita part is being ignored in most the social postings I read.
I don't have the daily number for Italy, but what I have seen on Facebook or both countries going from 1000-6000 in the same period of time is not the same rate, just like and increase of 10,11,12,13 is not the same rate as 50,51,52,53.
These posts and stats I've seen ignore the base - in this case the population. As much as 40% of the US deaths were due to external sources - boats, an identified individual bringing it in.
I also was hearing that we may all be carriers, we don't know. A pile of tests Sunday @ Hoag Hospital of folks feeling sick, coughing, runny noses - they couldn't find a carrier. The testing thing is difficult. It is hard to test 350 million people to find those 6,500 that have it. I'm sure it is more than 6,500, but I don't but this "we may all be carriers" thing.
To me the rate that matters is deaths per capita, and then the geographic location. The rate of deaths is too new a stat.
In the USA as of March 18 10:34 EDT there are 116 fatal cases. The WA elderly from one rest home and several from a cruise ship contribute a significant amount to that.
The first death from a USA caught infection was Feb 29 - 18 days ago. A rate of deaths/USA population/days since 1st death ~ nothing.
The rate of deaths in the states I live in goes between 1/day to 0 per day (CA has 11, CO 2). The rate based on population 11/39,000,000/14days = .00000002 deaths per capita per day in CA. and less in CO.
Not that any deaths are OK, and not that this could not grow and maybe what we have done will reduce contagion, but I'm far from panic as to the virus itself. It could be bad, it could get bad. It is not bad now.
That stock market, and being restricted are much bigger issues.
Right now the states I live in - CA and CO,