Where is this enormous population growth? The US just dropped below the replacement rate, and currently has the lowest recorded growth rate since the Great Depression.
Add to that the fact that hobbyists do not grow at a rate directly proportional to the population-- new humans ≠ new cyclists-- and you could easily have a dwindling market.
But I think the real thing here is the damage that the manufacturers have done to themselves. In 1989, Trek made the 5000, the first monocoque CF bike. It cost $2,500, and was the most expensive bike they sold by a wide margin. Adjusted for inflation, that would be $5,100-5,200.
Instead, today's top of the line Trek Madone is $12,000. There are 29 Trek road models alone that cost more than $5,000. I started driving in the '80s, and my first two cars combined cost less than a Madone SLR 9.
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