My spider senses say:
50% just what ^ he said, Bala grabs a bonus and a small gap to make it tighter on the overall.
30% he pips Yates for a few seconds but the bonuses are gone by the time they get there.
20% Yates by 10 or 20 sec. I'd feel better about that if the climb didn't shallow out toward the end. So maybe save that for stage 20.