Thanks! Yeah, I agree. I failed to mention I've done a couple of century rides, and as you said, most do not know how to ride a paceline. My upcoming ride is not a huge event (not thousands, but a few hundred). I agree in a huge ride, there's always another bus coming along.
In this smaller event, I'm hoping I can ride the course as fast as the lead riders, so I'm trying to think of how to do it, without making the mistake of either dropping off the lead pack too soon, or going out too fast and blowing up. My concern is, if I drop, there won't be another group for a while.
I've had some success with coaching, scolding, cajoling a group of strangers to fall in line and rotate 2 minute pulls. Yes, as you mentioned sometimes they fracture into 8 individuals racing each other.
I guess this is the difference between time trialing and road racing and century riding. I think can time trial 62 miles in under 3 hours (with no headwind). With any paceline, even a little, I should finish faster than doing it solo. Unless I go out too fast and blow up. I'm no racer, but my I've heard some road races ride the first third to half at a moderate pace, until someone launches a serious attack. At my event I think it's more likely a bunch will over estimate themselves, go out too fast, then wilt. I suppose there's no way to know in advance, unless you know most of the strong riders who are going to be there.
So I'm back to: go out with the leaders, refuse to pull, stay within the front 20 or so to spot a break. If they're slow, patiently suck wheel, until such point that I know I can solo it faster the whole rest of the way. If they're fast, hang on as long as possible.
Yes, I'm over thinking it. I was just hoping to prompt the forum for some bit of wisdom.