Originally Posted by
gregf83
The important take away from the graphs is not the absolute numbers but the slopes of the line which represent the growth rates. California is currently about 3 wks behind Italy. If they don't react aggressively the cases in California will be the same as Italy 3 wks from now. Fortunately, your government recognizes this and is taking action now before things get out of hand.
Absolute numbers say nothing about rate to humans.
Saying there were 20K auto deaths means little. We want to know per the world, country, what state, what amount of time?
That graph only plots cases by country over time. It leave out population. Then...death rates are all over the place. If that graph showed risk of death, USA would be 1/5th the slope of Italy.
That is why I said it was misleading.
As you would expect rates are tracking a lot based on population density. Italy is about 5X the population density USA.
Areas in the USA of higher populations, and the whole eastern USA, have more cases and assumed, future death per capita, so the death rate is higher.
West Coast - we have SFO - 1095 cases, 21 deaths. Population 850K. They may become the rate of cases as Italy. As may LA.
CA as a whole, I doubt we will see much more than 1/5 the Italian rates.
My area (SoCal Orange County 1.8M population) now has lines at the grocery store.
So far - Yesterday.
https://www.ochealthinfo.com/phs/abo...el_coronavirus
0 deaths (yet)
0 cases < 18
26 18-49
27 50+
26 of the cases are community contracted, 25 were contracted travel / elsewhere.