This is just me - not everybody is like this. But for most of my adult life I have been at (roughly) my right weight or I have been 30-50 pounds overweight. There have been 3 extended periods ( multiple years) where I did serious exercise. I am talking like running (7 minute miles) 50 miles per week, or riding a bike 150-200+ miles per week. And then there have been 3 extended periods where I did not do those things,.
Without exception when I was not exercising I was (or was getting) fat. When I was exercising I was losing weight or was not fat. That is my personal equation. It probably does not work for everyone as I find lots of exercise easy and diet control hard. But this is not 'go for a casual spin on the bike' type exercise.
Back to the topic - burn 800-1000 calories a day at whatever level of effort works for me. I cannot speak for others.
dave