How much can you keep improving?
06-03-20, 08:42 AM
#51
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Oh, yes, I thought it was 3.5 w/kg and you were 81kg.
I still think you'd be very hard pressed to do an 9 minute, 8% climb at 350 watts and 70 kg. That's a grind.
259-267-285 isn't a huge improvement over that time period, and certainly wouldn't indicate that you could then go 285 -> 350 any time soon. The speed relative to those wattages will definitely not be linear as a number of factors could have affected those; wind, riding position, passing cars, etc. 12w/16w just doesn't equate to 42/58 seconds over 13 minutes, so there were definitely some other significant factor(s) happening.
But it's a long-term game, so keep chipping away at it and who knows. Optimize your bike, your fit, and your clothing a bit more and you could probably get some free speed, too.
I still think you'd be very hard pressed to do an 9 minute, 8% climb at 350 watts and 70 kg. That's a grind.
259-267-285 isn't a huge improvement over that time period, and certainly wouldn't indicate that you could then go 285 -> 350 any time soon. The speed relative to those wattages will definitely not be linear as a number of factors could have affected those; wind, riding position, passing cars, etc. 12w/16w just doesn't equate to 42/58 seconds over 13 minutes, so there were definitely some other significant factor(s) happening.
But it's a long-term game, so keep chipping away at it and who knows. Optimize your bike, your fit, and your clothing a bit more and you could probably get some free speed, too.
Though you are right, the faster you go the more resistances, I forgot that, so 350W is too low an estimate. but let's see how it goes
06-03-20, 12:35 PM
#52
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I think it is safe to say that improvement is not linear. Rather it is an increasing curve with decreasing slope, reaching whatever genetic limit you have, and likely varies based on a number of variables.
06-05-20, 08:18 AM
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I have found that the more concrete and specific the goal the easier it is to continuously improve. For me that means belief, focus and commitment. General, goals such as improving overall fitness or similar wax and wain over time.
06-09-20, 11:47 AM
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A few observations here:
-I think we might be discussing ftp a few times in regards to some 20min PR's instead of the 60min definition, if so........let's talk in CP5, CP8, CP20, CP60 instead of "ftp". As it's a long cry from doing 270w or so up your 13min climb to doing it for a full uninterrupted hour.
-Even going from 300w to 350w for 8ish minutes is a mammoth difference. While some folks have freakish natural VO2max potential, the power duration curve for you simply won't ever be so drastic that if you can do 300w for 20min you would automatically be able to do 350w for 8min. Maybe, but probably not. I've done 305w for 20min and 330w for 8min. On the 8min I tried for 350w and had to dial it way back after 5min then get back into the gas.
-Lastly, there is still a very large aerobic contribution to 8min power. 8min is at the long limit of working on VO2. Even 3min has a solid aerobic contribution. Most plans I've seen don't jump into VO2 before doing a solid SS and/or threshold primer of work for a few weeks or even month. VO can be "easy come easy go", so if you can maintain a better aerobic engine.......it won't be as tough a task working back into VO. If you only do a lot of VO for VO sake.......soon as you're done, easy go. (Not my idea, podcast listening regurgitation).
-I think we might be discussing ftp a few times in regards to some 20min PR's instead of the 60min definition, if so........let's talk in CP5, CP8, CP20, CP60 instead of "ftp". As it's a long cry from doing 270w or so up your 13min climb to doing it for a full uninterrupted hour.
-Even going from 300w to 350w for 8ish minutes is a mammoth difference. While some folks have freakish natural VO2max potential, the power duration curve for you simply won't ever be so drastic that if you can do 300w for 20min you would automatically be able to do 350w for 8min. Maybe, but probably not. I've done 305w for 20min and 330w for 8min. On the 8min I tried for 350w and had to dial it way back after 5min then get back into the gas.
-Lastly, there is still a very large aerobic contribution to 8min power. 8min is at the long limit of working on VO2. Even 3min has a solid aerobic contribution. Most plans I've seen don't jump into VO2 before doing a solid SS and/or threshold primer of work for a few weeks or even month. VO can be "easy come easy go", so if you can maintain a better aerobic engine.......it won't be as tough a task working back into VO. If you only do a lot of VO for VO sake.......soon as you're done, easy go. (Not my idea, podcast listening regurgitation).
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06-15-20, 06:49 PM
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Suggesting, as you and many have, that someone will be predicted to reach an unknown ending level of performance in 6-8 years irrespective of an unknown level of starting performance is not analytically possible. The reason is simple: if starting and ending performance are unknown, so is improvement as the formula suggests. If improvement is unknown it's not possible to know when someone will achieve it....
Suggesting, as you and many have, that someone will be predicted to reach an unknown ending level of performance in 6-8 years irrespective of an unknown level of starting performance is not analytically possible. The reason is simple: if starting and ending performance are unknown, so is improvement as the formula suggests. If improvement is unknown it's not possible to know when someone will achieve it....
07-17-20, 08:10 AM
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Just as an update, tried again today.
Average watts increased to 307, time improvement was exactly 60 seconds. Which means each watt decreased time by 2.8 seconds, down from 3.6 seconds per watt on the last attempt compared to the 2nd last attempt. So yes, definitely no longer linear.
Average watts increased to 307, time improvement was exactly 60 seconds. Which means each watt decreased time by 2.8 seconds, down from 3.6 seconds per watt on the last attempt compared to the 2nd last attempt. So yes, definitely no longer linear.
