Radish_legs

I wonder what the distribution of threshold ceiling looks like for dedicated amateur cyclists.

For example, I have raised my TP from about 230 to about 275w in the past year. Was talking to my cycling coach he said that my genetic limit is probably something like 320w. No matter how hard I work, not likely to ever surpass that. I'm more fast-twitch and I'm old. My fitness goal is a TP of 300w which I think is achievable (on my trainer ride yesterday I did a PR of 317w for 10min, which was not a FTP test, i.e. very hard effort, but not an all out effort geared towards 10min PR).

What % can achieve a TP of 400w? 350w? 300w? 275w?

Many of you are much more experienced, more trained that I am or ever will be. What is your experience with a threshold power ceiling?

TheKillerPenguin

Honestly, you are way too new to the sport to worry about that, and it is really hard to know. I am of the opinion that most people can get to a point where they can get their cat 2 and probably their 1, and the true limiter is how much time and energy they are willing to invest into the sport. I would worry more about learning how to race and completing the workouts that are given to you and less on a theoretical genetic limit you may never have the time or motivation to actually reach.

Radish_legs

I don't think I'm ever going to reach my genetic limit. I have a family and career and many things to balance. But I think the topic is interesting. I see some guys on strava whose power numbers are just amazing (to me). You know, FTP = 400w. I wonder how many people can actually get to that with enough time and motivation and work.

And I know watts are not everything. Guy who won our local C race yesterday did over 300w. The guy who was 2nd place in the B race by a fraction of a second was something like 230w.

globecanvas

Raw watts don't usually mean much. W/kg is more meaningful.

It's definitely the case that continued gains require more and more work as fitness increases, until you reach a point where it takes a ridiculous amount of work required for even a tiny improvement. But some people will still do the ridiculous amount of work and keep improving.

dz_nuzz

I definitely would say there is a range in which people exist. I have some teammates whose FTP is easily 100 watts lower than mine, even when he did more threshold training than me I had an FTP close to 40 watts higher (We are effectively the same weight)

On the flip side, he has a sprint that is probably 600 watts higher than mine.

Ygduf

I disagree.

Ygduf

this really depends. uphill is one thing, not uphill is another.

miyata man

If there was a quantifiable way to measure mental proclivity for the rigors of racing a bicycle. People would still worry more about brain power than efficient throughput or agility. Persuade themselves of all the old chestnuts surrounding wattage with renewed vigor. Instead of treasuring the fleeting moments they get enough blood down there and up top for the stars to align.

Have to agree with Dz_nuzz on there being a limited space most people exist in.

mattm

For amateurs the FTP range is 2.0 - 5.0 w/kg, roughly.

For pros it's like 5.5 - 6.0+ w/kg or something crazy.

But the thing I don't like about the "ceiling" idea is that how do you know you've actually hit your ceiling, or just plateaued? Just keep pushing yourself, forget ceilings.

globecanvas

I did say "usually." The context is this guy wanting to know how high people's raw numbers are. I'm pretty confident that you and I are on the same page with respect to this issue

dz_nuzz

Still working on getting my FTP up to 600 Watts, I know I will make it eventually.

grolby

An estimate of your max potential can be interesting in the abstract, or exciting in terms of giving you some quantifiable headroom for improvement. It has limited practical value except insofar as it's based on estimates and assumptions about your physiology that can more directly inform the training you do. I've gotten an estimate of the threshold power I could produce, and it's an estimate I like because it's fairly high. But the more useful information I've gained from the analysis that produced that estimate is a more thorough understanding of my strengths and weaknesses. I could remain well below that theoretical potential and still dramatically improve on weak areas. It would be great to achieve a threshold of blah blah watts, but the goal isn't to have a high threshold per se, it's to race better.

topflightpro

I think there is probably a ceiling for all of us. Even the best athletes reach a point where they no longer improve. Where that ceiling is, however, I don't know. How much could I push my FTP if I quit my job and dedicated all my time to training it? 100 watts - maybe. 300 watts - highly unlikely. No matter what effort I put in, I would never come close to the outputs of top level pros.

And I'm going to disagree with TKP, I think most people can work their way to Cat 3, maybe 2. But beyond that, genetics will play a role.

miyata man

You can't ignore the importance of development during the formative years of youth. It really does a play a large part in setting you up to succeed in the rest of your life. This is the larger reason sedentary children are such a growing health concern. Their maximal ability could be minuscule compared to that determined by biological limiters.

PepeM

The ceiling is given by VO2max, which is not super-trainable, isn't it?

jsk

VO2Max is somewhat trainable, but there's definitely a ceiling.

I don't have the link handy but I recall reading a post either on Slowtwitch or the Wattage Google group where Andrew Coggan did the math based on what we know about the VO2Max ceiling for somebody with average genetics. The number he came up with was in the range of 3.9-4.1 w/kg if you optimized body weight and trained to full potential.

rubiksoval

Honestly, I'd probably find a new coach. Sounds like a ridiculously arbitrary number to me.

rubiksoval

After 10 or so years I thought I'd reached an FTP ceiling. Then I started focusing on workouts I hadn't done before and whadaya know, FTP went up 15 watts.

Stimulus -> response. Just gotta keep working that stimulus.

globecanvas

That's a VO2max number, or FTP?

jsk

That was the FTP number calculated based on the VO2Max ceiling for a male with average genetics.

Ygduf

without the part I quoted it's not funny :/

I'm not sure any of us really exist. @Doge prove we're not in a computer simulation or something.

Matt2.8NJ

I bought a new power meter that read 10 watts higher on average, and my FTP went up too! The investment clearly paid off.

hubcyclist

i don't have much of value to add, but I have wondered about my ceiling, given I've started relatively late compared to others. and anytime I've sniffed 265 as my ftp I've had life stuff come up and sent me tumbling back to 230, where I'm at now. so I'm sensing 265 (around 3.7 w/kg if I'm at my good weight) may be my ceiling. not all that special but I'd take it over where I am now lol

miyata man

I bet upgrading it to the latest firmware and separately requesting Garmin's latest 'not for public release' elevation algorithm will do you better than a measly 10 watts.

Intentional calibration offsets and attainment of nylon sporting goods before they drop are the only real metric of who matters anymore in cycling.

Matt2.8NJ

where can I get some of whatever you're taking?