tandempower

So in other words they charge a little more for shipping to customers who do pay so that they can subsidize free shipping for various reasons, mostly promotional I assume.Security is an issue in all situations. You seem to imply that truck deliveries and/or brick-and-mortar stores solve these problems. ATMs are pretty strong and don't get breached very often, I think. I'm sure Amazon could find a vendor to produce secure locker islands that are at least as secure as an ATM, maybe Mercedes since they seem to want to do business with them. It might even make Mercedes-Amazon look progressive in struggle to reduce traffic and congestion on the roads.

tyrion

These human delivery solutions are all relatively short term.

Robert C

My sister worked for one of their contract delivery companies, Ontrak, for a couple of years. They expect the drive to have a late model van and to cover a very large area fast. She drove an average of over 200 miles per day.

There was no "extra" pay or time given for dirt roads, mud, or snow. It came out to six days a week, twelve to fourteen hours a day. There was no coverage for sickness, and certainly no vacation time. If a location could not be reached, the driver was expected to take it to a post office and mail it. The driver was responsible for the postal cost. It definitely was a case of shifting the cost onto the employee.

Mobile 155

[left]

CliffordK

They could probably contract with companies like Mailboxes Etc to have drop boxes... are they still around? Having high tech drop boxes would likely be a benefit to several companies. I could imagine post offices even adopting high tech PO boxes. So, customers wouldn't necessarily have to rent boxes when they are empty.

Cities and neighborhoods might or might or might not embrace the idea of regional drop boxes. Some neighborhoods have centralized locking mailboxes. This would be similar, perhaps requesting a chunk of sidewalk for the installation.

If one could convince people that using a regional drop box for deliveries would get them $1 off of their next order, some may choose the services, and encourage space to be set aside to use it. Especially if UPS, Fedex, and Amazon could share facilities.

One issue, of course, is drop box capacity would be best if they were emptied out daily. What about people on vacation? Or trying to swing by when convenient?

tandempower

I googled "Amazon locker" and got this: https://www.amazon.com/b?ie=UTF8&node=6442600011

Where do I see room to negotiate about what? Using bike couriers instead of Mercedes vans and generating stock market demand and kickbacks all around? Not much on that one, unless there's an off chance that Amazon is more interested in the deliveries than colluding with Mercedes to sell its vans in bulk.

The irony is that by ordering from Amazon and getting their deliveries via the vans, LCF people will be supporting the auto industry, who structure bike couriers out of the possibilities because more efficiency would mean less van sales.

Still, if I didn't think there was a chance sanity could win and bike couriers had a chance of actually getting to deliver packages instead of Mercedes-funded delivery drivers being the shoe in for the job, there would be no point mentioning it. . . or would there?

I-Like-To-Bike

Not a chance that sanity would "win" in this (or any) BF-LCF Brand Critical Thinking Discussion™.

CliffordK

Nothing in life is exactly free.

I haven't sold on Amazon, but if you sell a $20 item on Amazon (shipped from home), then there is normally a shipping charge. There seem to be some options to get around that, perhaps with larger orders? Maybe that is configured by the vendor.

Nonetheless, Amazon takes a commission out of every $20 sale. So, the vendor may get $18.

Fulfilled by Amazon is more complex, and multiple vendors send products to Amazon to warehouse and distribute. The items get mixed to some extent, so if I send an item to Portland, and someone buys it in New York, then an equivalent item from another vendor may be shipped from New York.

There are, of course, commissions, and perhaps rent for stuff fulfilled by Amazon.

"Free" shipping, of course, does a couple of things.

• No haggling over shipping rates... it is free, after all.
• Buyers may do larger orders to get the "Free" perks.
• For a seller, say a 100% markup. $10 item, sold for $20. Buyer pays shipping, $10 item, $10 shipping, $10 profit ($30 total).
  $50 combined sale, free shipping, $10 profit, $15 shipping. The profit per sale is the same (other than increased inventory overhead). Hit a $100 or $200 combined order (stimulated by that free shipping offer), and the profit goes up.
• MAP, Minimum Advertised Pricing. Free shipping is one place where that fails. I was hunting for some ExtraTerrestrials recently. Every store sells them for exactly $55... Can you say Price Fixing? But, the online stores inevitably sell them for $55 & Free Shipping. That means, because of the MAP, I pay exactly the same price delivered to my door if I buy them in a store (maybe), or delivered to my doorstep.
• Free shipping and combined orders may mean huge benefits for vendors. Say one calculates a $5 item + $5 shipping for $10 total, advertised as free shipping. Now, have a customer order 5 of those, and one now gets $25 worth of product, and $25 worth of shipping. If that shipping is only costing the vendor $10, then they've made an extra $15, or are now going to the bank with $8 each, rather than $5 each

Anyway, everyone gets their chunk of the pie with free shipping offers. But, since the actual rates are normally hidden, one never quite knows what that chunk is. Save say $1 per item on 10 Million in volume, and that equals $10 Million dollars. And don't expect that money to all come back to the buyers/sellers.

With Amazon Prime, Amazon has some pretty extraordinary shipping turnaround. But, this also runs the risk of greater fees through the post office. And, thus a stimulus for building a web to improve logistics while reducing the premium costs.

Mobile 155

tandempower

Why can't you admit that it's more rational to use one van to transport packages from a warehouse and a few bike couriers to deliver them door-to-door in a local area instead of using three vans, all going back and forth to the warehouse and doing the door-to-door deliveries as well? Three vans cost 3x as much, use 3x as much fuel, 3x as many tires, parts, and maintenance, have 3x as much insurance risk, etc.

How is it sane to use more vans instead of less unless you're colluding with the van-maker to get kickbacks on the promotion of future sales and investments that come with boosting van sales?

CliffordK

For some, maybe.

The primary reasons I shop on Amazon and E-Bay is that I can get a selection that is difficult to get locally, or at cheaper prices.

It just isn't worth it to hit 10 local stores to hunt for some rare item, and probably end up with a second-rate substitute, when I can go online, do the product research, and buy exactly what I want, and frequently saving money.

Yes... Profit...

But, profit is also fickle. One likes to look good. So, if "green" is vogue, then they'll make an attempt to look greener than the competition.

Then the question is whether bikes are more expensive or less expensive than using vehicles. I think the answer is that in some cases, the bicycles (E-Bikes) could be used very efficiently.

I mentioned, for example, in a small town, it might be easier to support a part-time bike courier, than a part-time van courier.

Likewise, in a high density metro area, the difference in speed between bikes and vehicles might be minimized, and the biggest issues would be capacity for the vehicles vs lower capital and operating costs for the bikes.

Then, there is the question of the number of ethical LCFers (or people complaining about global warming and doing nothing about it). Given a choice of buying from Vendor A and Vendor B. If I knew Vendor A was doing emission free delivery (ok, last mile delivery), I might choose them over Vendor B. It is probably not a large segment of the population, but some of them may be over-represented with online sales.

Effective use of the vans for a company like Amazon likely will mean a mixed system. So, their private delivery service may be profitable in an urban setting with the average distance per delivery being 1 mile. And, unprofitable in a rural setting with the average distance being 10 miles, in which case, they'd be better off contracting with the post office for those rural deliveries.

Thus, bikes may be competitive in the same places where the Amazon vans are competitive.

CliffordK

I had those consolidated mailboxes, and the only time I ever lost mail was when I was moving, and the post office decided I wasn't picking up my mail frequently enough and took all of my mail out of the mailbox, and then it was just gone, I'm not sure what ever happened to it.

I may consider contacting Amazon, but don't think I want to personally commit to trucking packages around for 8+ hours a day, every day, so it would have to be some kind of a subcontractor option.

Mobile 155

Please do. At least you will hear what they have to say. Love to hear how many cyclist want to be tracked every foot of the way for 8 hours a day. The issue isn't about what we want it is about what Amazon has offered. Read Robert Cs post about a relative contracting for Amazon. Read about UPS drivers and what they do through with Amazon only making up 20 percent of their deliveries. Read the link I posted on amazon drivers coming over from Uber and Lyft type of services. This is real world. A delivery driver for Amazon can easily go 200 miles in a day. How viable is that for a cyclists with a trailer? Even with a E-bike? And 1 mile apart deliveries are about 7 minutes apart by bike. That would be almost 6 hours without a break if every stop was a mile of so for 50 stops. If several stops were 3 miles apart your day would be shot and you wouldn't finish your route. If you are a sub contractor will you provide a replacement when you are sick or on vacation?


I read the link in the first post again. I doubt they will hire cyclists to work in with van drivers when they are already getting 150 to 200 deliveries a day now by van.


The question was asked what do we think. I think Amazon has a system that works and isn't looking to change the system but rather only to dump employees to cover their costs. It will cost someone 10k to see. In the case of Flex drivers it will cost using your own car and being able to make same day and next day deliveries from the warehouse. But I also don't believe the question was serious. I think it was whispering a dream about what someone wanted to believe would work.

I-Like-To-Bike

Because in Critical Thinking™ Fabricated FantasyLand, a sane investor would buy as many $34,000 vans as possible for only $10,000 from Amazon and turn around and sell them immediately for a sizeable profit. What a deal!

Anything is possible when reality is never a factor to be considered in the so-called "Critical Thinking" process, AKA Economic Daydreaming.

CliffordK

I have never seen an Amazon van. Certainly none of my Amazon orders have come to my house in an Amazon van.

Amazon may well have a system that works, but it sounds like they are looking for something better.

Yes, covering shifts for people who call in sick would be a problem, as would potentially covering 6 days in a 5 day work week. Some would depend if one had redundant systems to cover absentees, or perhaps a contract with USPS to cover overflow. Multiple employees?

From what I've observed, E-Bikes can be pretty snappy. So, while I might hit 5 to 10 MPH with a heavy load of cargo, many E-Bikes consistently hit 20 MPH, with good acceleration from stops. So, that means 3 minute miles. In many urban settings, that could compete well with vehicle traffic. In some cases, couriers will lane-split, and beat traffic. I wouldn't think that would apply to a large cargo e-bike, but they would be able to utilize bike lanes and trails not accessible to vehicles. Perhaps even being easier to park. So, for short delivery distances, the penalty for a bike may not be that much, other than cargo capacity.

90+% of my riding is already tracked by Strava... I suppose the only difference is few people ever actually see it.

tyrion

I agree. It will be easier for them to "let contracts expire" than to "layoff employees" should they decide to change operations quickly.

As I've been saying, these human operators are just an interim solution that could be discarded within 10 years.

I-Like-To-Bike

Aren't dreams, fantasies, and a conjured alternate reality the basis for every so-called Critical Thinking™ thread on this list?

Mobile 155

It is like seeing a charging Lion running at you and thinking, I wonder if he wants to play? I freely admit I don't understand tossing the thought out there if even you don't believe it will work or that anyone but you has the least bit of interest in the idea. It is even harder when you hear, "I think they are just trying to sell Vans." and in the next breath, "Maybe they will be interested in Lockers and Bicycles." I admit I don't get the reasoning.

I-Like-To-Bike

Transport vehicles with a lack of cargo space would be a problem wouldn't it, for a service based on timely and reliable delivery of a maximum amount of packages for as little cost as possible?


Protection from the weather for both driver and packages, as well as security of the packages while in the delivery mode would be a problem too, except for those who would deliver multiple packages in the alternate reality of BF-LCF Fantasyland.

BTW, legal parking may not be so "easy" for a large cargo bike (as pictured in your post 15) in crowded areas where on the street parking is not easily found for noncommercial plated vehicles. I cannot imagine sidewalk parking for such sidewalk obstructions would be permitted in most dense urban business areas.

tandempower

I'm sure that option is limited by the contractual fine print.

What I suspect they're doing is selling the vans for what essentially amounts to a 30% down payment and then using the bulk sale as a marketing tool to boost investor confidence in future sales of parts, etc. When dealing with futures trading, you lock people into future work/spending and then borrow against those future earnings projections to make money in the present.

This is why bike-onomics puts you at a disadvantage in an economy that makes money in the present by trading on the expectation of future waste-sales. Bikes simply cost less and are more efficient, so you can use them to reduce the amount of cars but if the car companies are making deals that give kickbacks to people for doing things by driving, you as a bike courier or other bike business aren't going to be taken seriously as a generator of waste and kickbacks. They keep bikes around as a recreational thing, but the moment they threaten to reduce car sales, they reject, dismiss, ignore, and otherwise negativize about it irrationally, as per your posts, M155's, and some others here. What I always wonder is that if you aren't for bikes taking market share away from cars, why are you here except to belittle anyone who shows up here thinking they can make a difference by choosing to bike instead of driving?

I-Like-To-Bike

More like a rabid raccoon.

I-Like-To-Bike

What you "suspect" on this subject has no basis in reality and doesn't require any further discussion except perhaps as a trivia game.

I-Like-To-Bike

Inability to carry much cargo would tend to decrease the utility of a vehicle for a service based on reliable, secure and prompt delivery of multiple packages in all weather, all year at minimal cost for the shipper. Quite a "penalty" I would say.


BTW, do you have any idea of the cost of the cargo e-bikes being tested by UPS that you referenced in msg 15? Know many private citizens with such a vehicle? Can a citizen without commercial plates park legally on the sidewalk in business districts of big cities or do they have to find a legal spot on the street?

Mobile 155

Dude you said you got the reason they wanted to sell vans. You must also realize you cannot make 150 to 250 deliveries a day of everything from TVs to Christmas trees. All you have to do is prove you can duplicate the deliveries already made with a bicycle to get the contract with Amazon. If you cannot do it then you cannot change the rules of a company you have no stock in or position in. That is reality, life not negativity. Did you even read about the distances required to deliver for any of the express carriers? Many years ago I had a delivery route when I first started working. My first stop was 98 miles from the warehouse. The senior mans first stop was 10 miles from the warehouse. I might have had 20 stops he had about 40 stops. Some of the stops were with boxes of paper, 42 pounds per box of 8.5 x 11 paper and 62 pounds for 8.5 x 14 or 17x11. One stop might have had 10 boxes and another might have five. Just tell me how a bicycle could do either of those jobs with 20 stops or 40 stops? Amazon will have different size boxes as well and they will have routs starting a pretty good distance away from the warehouse. If your first stop is 15 miles from the warehouse and 15 miles back can you do that by bike? Can you make 80 stops if the first stop is 15 miles from the warehouse? Can you do it with one load? If not who is making it hard for cyclists to get in on the Amazon deal?


Give us a practical explanation of warehouse to front door where bicycles can fill the needs of a company that already gets 200 deliveries out of a drive?

I-Like-To-Bike

Where can I order motor vehicles and vans from Amazon like TP? Is that on a site known only by those who can do the secret MindMeld handshake?


TP doesn't necessarily have to realize anything which he chooses not to recognize as meeting his agenda and/or fit his imaginary scheme