What's next? After gravel, what's the NEXT BIG THING?
#1
Chases Dogs for Sport
Thread Starter
What's next? After gravel, what's the NEXT BIG THING?
Against my better judgment, I tend to be an early adopter. I was doing gravel back when Dirty Kanza had fewer than 100 entrants and nobody seemed to know what gravel was. Gravel bikers were seen as rather odd by all other cyclists. Roadies couldn't imagine why anyone would WANT to ride on dirt and gravel roads. For years, nobody had a clue that gravel cycling would become the NEXT BIG THING. (I thought it was popular, in part, because it WASN'T a big thing!)
But now, the sales wave is peaking, the fad is in full force, and everybody from road cyclists to MTBers to triathletes is talking about riding gravel. (But how many gravel bike buyers will actually ever ride a dirt or gravel road?) There's a major manufacturer new gravel product introduction just about every week. The gravel segment has become the mainstream and even traditional road race bikes are feeling threatened. But even this mania won't last forever.
So . . . what's next? What cycling segment will be next to see a resurgence? Or, what yet-to-be-widespread new cycling idea is going to become the "next big thing?" What do you think? Where are all the early adopters going now?
But now, the sales wave is peaking, the fad is in full force, and everybody from road cyclists to MTBers to triathletes is talking about riding gravel. (But how many gravel bike buyers will actually ever ride a dirt or gravel road?) There's a major manufacturer new gravel product introduction just about every week. The gravel segment has become the mainstream and even traditional road race bikes are feeling threatened. But even this mania won't last forever.
So . . . what's next? What cycling segment will be next to see a resurgence? Or, what yet-to-be-widespread new cycling idea is going to become the "next big thing?" What do you think? Where are all the early adopters going now?
Last edited by FlashBazbo; 08-01-19 at 12:07 PM.
#2
Chases Dogs for Sport
Thread Starter
I couldn't bring myself to put this in the first post. But . . . urp . . . gag . . . uhmp . . . you don't think it's e-bikes, do you? They're going big in Europe. (On the whole, I'd rather ride a Honda.)
What I'd really like to see is a resurgence of local, grassroots, weekly time trial competition. Could that become a thing?
What I'd really like to see is a resurgence of local, grassroots, weekly time trial competition. Could that become a thing?
Last edited by FlashBazbo; 08-01-19 at 08:35 AM.
#3
Senior Member
Next big thing: e-MTBs. It's already gaining steam.
__________________
2014 Cannondale SuperSix EVO 2
2019 Salsa Warbird
2014 Cannondale SuperSix EVO 2
2019 Salsa Warbird
#4
Behold my avatar:
Join Date: May 2006
Location: SW Colorado
Posts: 1,036
Bikes: 2019 Gorilla Monsoon, 2013 Surly Krampus, Brompton folder
Liked 446 Times
in
290 Posts
Plus its nice that the market now provides me more options than re-purposing a 90s mtb.
Likes For dgodave:
#5
Chases Dogs for Sport
Thread Starter
The SUV market is saturated, too, but not many of those SUV's will ever see an unpaved road (or, egad, off-road).
#6
Behold my avatar:
Join Date: May 2006
Location: SW Colorado
Posts: 1,036
Bikes: 2019 Gorilla Monsoon, 2013 Surly Krampus, Brompton folder
Liked 446 Times
in
290 Posts
....But now, the lemmings have followed and everybody from road cyclists to MTBers to triathletes is talking about riding gravel....
#8
Chases Dogs for Sport
Thread Starter
I didn't say you should. But this is a very odd thread to make multiple replies to if you don't care about what the "next big thing" is.
#9
Behold my avatar:
Join Date: May 2006
Location: SW Colorado
Posts: 1,036
Bikes: 2019 Gorilla Monsoon, 2013 Surly Krampus, Brompton folder
Liked 446 Times
in
290 Posts
But I'm asking why I should care. Maybe there's an actual problem I'm unaware of?
Last edited by dgodave; 08-01-19 at 12:18 PM.
Likes For dgodave:
#10
Senior Member
Join Date: Oct 2015
Location: San Diego, California
Posts: 4,074
Bikes: Velo Orange Piolet
Liked 2,013 Times
in
972 Posts
Now that there's gravel groupset, gravel is bonafide category (not a niche). That allows a niche between gravel and road (e.g. Salsa War Road) and a niche between gravel and MB XC - (e.g. Open WI.DE.). Gravel/road isn't really new (other than new marketing/positioning), but gravel/XC is new. But I don't think gravel/XC (monster gravel?) will become that big.
#11
Sunshine
Join Date: Aug 2014
Location: Des Moines, IA
Posts: 17,038
Bikes: '18 class built steel roadbike, '19 Fairlight Secan, '88 Schwinn Premis , Black Mountain Cycles Monstercross V4, '89 Novara Trionfo
Liked 8,065 Times
in
4,472 Posts
Not sure why you are calling people lemmings just because they are getting into gravel right now. I give no respect to those who adopt early to trends and I give no derision to those who adopt late. Everyone has their one interests, motivation, and means. Many on this very forum are new to gravel every day. Ridiculing them just because they havent already been riding backroads for years is petty as hell.
Its especially odd for you to mock those who are getting into gravel riding now since you have readily admitted that your impulsiveness to early adopt has led you to disappointment many times.
**edited because BF blocks the actual spelling of a word that means to make things similar/uniform, so i misspelled it as a dumb workaround.
Last edited by mstateglfr; 08-01-19 at 01:17 PM.
Likes For mstateglfr:
#12
Chases Dogs for Sport
Thread Starter
Not sure why you are calling people lemmings just because they are getting into gravel right now. I give no respect to those who adopt early to trends and I give no derision to those who adopt late. Everyone has their one interests, motivation, and means. Many on this very forum are new to gravel every day. Ridiculing them just because they havent already been riding backroads for years is petty as hell.
Its especially odd for you to mock those who are getting into gravel riding now since you have readily admitted that your impulsiveness to early adopt has led you to disappointment many times.
Its especially odd for you to mock those who are getting into gravel riding now since you have readily admitted that your impulsiveness to early adopt has led you to disappointment many times.
I wasn't mocking anyone. "Lemmings" is marketingspeak for those who create the crest of a sales wave. No derision meant, but I guess I can see how the term could be seen as pejorative. I will change it in my original post to be better understood.
I am duly censored.
Last edited by FlashBazbo; 08-01-19 at 12:16 PM.
#13
Sunshine
Join Date: Aug 2014
Location: Des Moines, IA
Posts: 17,038
Bikes: '18 class built steel roadbike, '19 Fairlight Secan, '88 Schwinn Premis , Black Mountain Cycles Monstercross V4, '89 Novara Trionfo
Liked 8,065 Times
in
4,472 Posts
Lighten up, Francis! Thin skin?
I wasn't mocking anyone. "Lemmings" is marketingspeak for those who create the crest of a sales wave. No derision meant, but I guess I can see how the term could be seen as pejorative. I will change it in my original post to be better understood.
I wasn't mocking anyone. "Lemmings" is marketingspeak for those who create the crest of a sales wave. No derision meant, but I guess I can see how the term could be seen as pejorative. I will change it in my original post to be better understood.
Didnt realize it now means the exact opposite and represents those who create the surge in a product's popularity.
Its been a few handfuls since I left college, but what I was taught is there are innovators, early adopters, early majority, late majority, and laggards. Words and language are fluid, but dang thats quite the change!
Likes For mstateglfr:
#14
Senior Member
Lighten up, Francis! Did I touch a nerve? Wow.
I wasn't mocking anyone. "Lemmings" is marketingspeak for those who create the crest of a sales wave. No derision meant, but I guess I can see how the term could be seen as pejorative. I will change it in my original post to be better understood.
I am duly censored.
I wasn't mocking anyone. "Lemmings" is marketingspeak for those who create the crest of a sales wave. No derision meant, but I guess I can see how the term could be seen as pejorative. I will change it in my original post to be better understood.
I am duly censored.
#15
Senior Member
Same, lemmings has always been pejorative in the context and intent.
I really enjoyed the game as a kid.
Of the three shops in the area, the only vertical with any growth over the past 2-years has been e-bikes. The others have been completely flat. So yeah, it's already a "thing."
Personally, "gravel" bikes really only became a thing because people wanted to stuff bigger tires under their road bike. I see a lot of gravel bikes, pristine and with slicks on the local MUPs every weekend. No doubt, being loaded into or out of the owner's pristine SUV.
I bought a gravel bike because I wanted the utility and flexibility, there wasn't a single road bike that could achieve the results I wanted.
I really enjoyed the game as a kid.
Of the three shops in the area, the only vertical with any growth over the past 2-years has been e-bikes. The others have been completely flat. So yeah, it's already a "thing."
Personally, "gravel" bikes really only became a thing because people wanted to stuff bigger tires under their road bike. I see a lot of gravel bikes, pristine and with slicks on the local MUPs every weekend. No doubt, being loaded into or out of the owner's pristine SUV.
I bought a gravel bike because I wanted the utility and flexibility, there wasn't a single road bike that could achieve the results I wanted.
Likes For softreset:
#16
- Soli Deo Gloria -
Join Date: Aug 2015
Location: Northwest Georgia
Posts: 14,779
Bikes: 2018 Rodriguez Custom Fixed Gear, 2017 Niner RLT 9 RDO, 2015 Bianchi Pista, 2002 Fuji Robaix
Liked 738 Times
in
469 Posts
Someone is buying these bikes because even the local triathlete shops now stock gravel bikes but most of the roadies I know have little or no interest.
Up in the mountains I see roadies coming down off the gaps in groups of a half dozen but hardly meet a single gravel rider while I ride.
-Tim-
#17
Senior Member
Tim - I think it is. I took a demo Pinarello e-bike out for the day last weekend when their truck was in town. After about 3 hours and almost 50 miles of riding, I'm legitimately giving it a thought. No, not a Pinarello e-bike (waaay out of budget) but one in general.
I don't use Strava, I don't race, I haven't ridden with a bike computer or power meter in 3 years. But I do enjoy an occasional group ride and I'd love to be just a little less sweaty on my AM commute. One of the guys I use to ride with regularly (retired guy) rides about 25-30/hrs per week, has incredible fitness and would indulge me on my demo ride. Because we don't ride much anymore as even his slow tempo had me struggling on most days. On the same e-bike, I kept his pace for 20+ miles, and he was at his limit. I was still cooked, he got a great workout and we rode together for the first time in almost a year. It was a blast. The 'boost' bridged the gap between my 16 avg MPH and his 20+ MPH and still gave me plenty of a workout.
Heck, I put my parents on e-bikes last year for their anniversary. Both of them ride more hours per month outside than I do now, they've both lost weight and feel better. "It's the best present in the world - 72 year old Mom"
From my perspective and I realize it's probably an unpopular opinion, I'm 100% supportive of e-bikes. But my philosophy when I worked at a shop was always: "Whatever it takes to get you riding."
I don't use Strava, I don't race, I haven't ridden with a bike computer or power meter in 3 years. But I do enjoy an occasional group ride and I'd love to be just a little less sweaty on my AM commute. One of the guys I use to ride with regularly (retired guy) rides about 25-30/hrs per week, has incredible fitness and would indulge me on my demo ride. Because we don't ride much anymore as even his slow tempo had me struggling on most days. On the same e-bike, I kept his pace for 20+ miles, and he was at his limit. I was still cooked, he got a great workout and we rode together for the first time in almost a year. It was a blast. The 'boost' bridged the gap between my 16 avg MPH and his 20+ MPH and still gave me plenty of a workout.
Heck, I put my parents on e-bikes last year for their anniversary. Both of them ride more hours per month outside than I do now, they've both lost weight and feel better. "It's the best present in the world - 72 year old Mom"
From my perspective and I realize it's probably an unpopular opinion, I'm 100% supportive of e-bikes. But my philosophy when I worked at a shop was always: "Whatever it takes to get you riding."
Likes For softreset:
#18
Senior Member
Agreed - this was the first thing that came to mind when I saw your question.
I think that e-bikes might help some LBSs stay in business so that they can continue to sell non-motorized bikes also. A friend of mine is a Trek dealer and he ordered as many of the Trek Verve e-bikes (value-oriented commuter model) as he could get - supplies were limited - and he sees a future for his 40-year-old bike shop that definitely includes e-bikes.
And, the next-next big thing will be repairing e-bikes - which will also help the LBS, although there will be training and new equipment costs involved. The motor-controller-battery systems are complex and the average consumer won't be diagnosing and repairing problems. Most name brand e-bikes with name-brand systems should work fine for many years if the batteries are maintained. But, there will always be problems to fix at some point - especially with the off-brand bikes that are being marketed direct to consumers.
I've read that car dealerships make more $$ from service than they do selling new vehicles. Perhaps bike shops can take advantage of this business model with e-bikes.
I think that e-bikes might help some LBSs stay in business so that they can continue to sell non-motorized bikes also. A friend of mine is a Trek dealer and he ordered as many of the Trek Verve e-bikes (value-oriented commuter model) as he could get - supplies were limited - and he sees a future for his 40-year-old bike shop that definitely includes e-bikes.
And, the next-next big thing will be repairing e-bikes - which will also help the LBS, although there will be training and new equipment costs involved. The motor-controller-battery systems are complex and the average consumer won't be diagnosing and repairing problems. Most name brand e-bikes with name-brand systems should work fine for many years if the batteries are maintained. But, there will always be problems to fix at some point - especially with the off-brand bikes that are being marketed direct to consumers.
I've read that car dealerships make more $$ from service than they do selling new vehicles. Perhaps bike shops can take advantage of this business model with e-bikes.
#19
Banned
Bikepacking. Folks get gravel bikes but figure out pretty quickly they aren't racers. They can buy several large sacks and still feel they are part of the scene. Seems like a good plan to me!
#20
HarborBandS
The future can be quite difficult to predict. If you had told me back in the '90's that the next big thing in cycling would be hipsters riding minimalist fixed-gear track bikes without brakes through crowded urban areas, I would have thought your were nuts.
But yeah, the e-bike thing is coming on strong. You can feel it.
But yeah, the e-bike thing is coming on strong. You can feel it.
Likes For HarborBandS:
Likes For HarborBandS:
#22
E-Goatbikes. In 2022, the National Park Service finally decides to allow so-called "e-bikes" on trails, but dictates that they need to blend in with the natural environment and appear to be animals, so as not to be as scary to pack horses they might encounter along the the trails.
#23
Senior Member
I have no idea. I'll be happy riding my gravel bike on the dirt/gravel roads local to me for a long time. Driving somewhere to go ride is a turn-off to me, so whatever the "next big thing" is, if I have to put it in my car and drive somewhere to make good use of it, I don't see myself putting down new bike money for it.
Likes For TimothyH:
#25
HarborBandS
And regarding the gravel trend, how many people are really in to crushing gravel vs. just owning a very versatile bike?
I worked in a bike shop when the hybrid trend came on strong in the 90's, and like gravel bikes hybrids are also quite versatile in terms of the mixed terrain they can handle. But hybrid owners were very quickly slapped with the label of "non-serious cyclist", and hybrids became the choice for soccer mom's and grandmas everywhere. Gravel bikes have a lot of the versatility of hybrids and touring bikes, but maintain a level of coolness.
I worked in a bike shop when the hybrid trend came on strong in the 90's, and like gravel bikes hybrids are also quite versatile in terms of the mixed terrain they can handle. But hybrid owners were very quickly slapped with the label of "non-serious cyclist", and hybrids became the choice for soccer mom's and grandmas everywhere. Gravel bikes have a lot of the versatility of hybrids and touring bikes, but maintain a level of coolness.