350htrr

IMO one of three things will happen...

1; The virus peters out and social distancing also peters out...
2; The virus just keeps on and on and everyone gets it or not, and lives or dies, until a vaccine is found and social distancing is here to stay...
3; The virus mutates and starts to kill most people and society falls apart...

and... if you think I am exaggerating...
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world...cid=spartandhp

also...
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world...cid=spartandhp

Leisesturm

I am not aware that it was 'easy' to give up the things you mention. It was relatively easy to issue the orders to suspend them. The moving parts of a sports franchise centers around 5 to 11 individuals. You tell them to stay home and Bob's your uncle. Closing schools ... was that 'easy'? Let's admit it, many of us had a love/hate relationship with consumption. Some of us are glad to have the decision to go out for that restaurant meal taken away from us. The ongoing lack of access to gyms, hair salons, libraries, museums, etc. ... that's society we're talking about. We suspend that at our peril. When one is in the throes of acute respiratory failure I don't imagine one cares much about anything other than getting better. What about if/when one is perfectly healthy? Has there ever been, in human history, recorded or otherwise, a time when perfectly healthy people sheltered in place for months on end? Whose bright idea was this?

350htrr

and... There's the tilting point of the problem we/the world is/are facing... There actually was times like today in the past... On the one side 2%, maybe as high as 10%, of people dying versus society crumbling but we need to just carry on... or, do we do what ancient society's did and close up shop, (kill anyone coming from another village)???... The difference is of course 30% dying of the black plague and no medical help, compared to 2% to 10% dying and lots of medical help. So... we go with plan "A", BUT, It does not mean plan "B" will not be required... I do believe the U.S.military is presently set to deploying to the border to Canada, as we speak... Just saying... I would "suspect, that that would change society a bit" maybe just a little bit, a teeny tiny, bit, but it WILL change things..??? of course it will...

Machka 

Hopefully!!

One of the best things about all this is that it is considered socially acceptable to maintain distance between one person and the next. That's wonderful!!

Mobile 155

Yes, and it is becoming more acceptable every week.

cooker

Sorry to be late to the thread. Bad as pandemics are I don't think de-densifying or getting rid of mass transit will save lives. Motor vehicle deaths dwarf pandemic deaths in the long run, for one thing, Also, these kinds of diseases eventually spread everywhere.and rural areas are not necessarily "safe" . We have a constellation of cases in the small community of Bobcaygeon, 2 hours outside of Toronto for example.

True story and also a Canadian insider joke - sorry to piggyback that onto a tragedy.

Mobile 155

We all understand it could spread to every place. But we also see social distancing has helped to flatten the curve. South Korea and the USA have similar precautions and the death and infection rate is low. Countries that were late to isolation and social distancing didn't do so well. No one is pushing for more people to take mass transit at this point nor would it do any good. In some places passengers that do ride mass transit are forced to board through the back door only and not get withing 6 feet of the driver.

Yes more people are killed by car accidents but more have died from the flu as well plus add drug overdose. But this is every bit as contagious as the common cold, or so I have read.

So the government, CDC and medical community are suggesting not getting into a dense area of humans if you can avoid it. Could it be an over reaction? Maybe but it is effecting the thinking of everyone. Like I said people don't shake hands anymore, hugging is close to non existent. Mass transit is down a lot in New York and San Francisco, I posted links I think earlier. People are leaving the denser areas and communities are trying to stop others from coming into them. I am not judging if the actions are right or wrong only that the actions are happening and the attitudes towards going anywhere that large groups of people are has waned.

It may be different in other countries but I see a change in social attitudes that I am not convinced will return to "normal". If you look at Rhode Islands going door to door looking for people that came there from New York and New Jersey. This "seems like a cultural or social change to me and I am not sure it will go away if this pandemic simply proves seasonal. Countries are closing boarders, ours is considering putting the national guard on the boarders to screen people coming in. If this last much longer mass transit in some areas hear will not last. I don't think.

cooker

To use your own example, South Korea is doing much better than the US despite being much denser and having a lot more mass transit.

Machka 

Motor vehicle traffic has died off here and public transportation is hardly used right now.

Why?

Because everyone is at home!! Or most people are. That's the direction I've felt society could have gone years ago, but it has taken a pandemic to do it.

alo

This will all be over soon, and life will return to normal.

Most people that get it will recover and be immune to it. Then it wont matter if they are exposed to it again.

The leaders know, we need people back at work to avoid severe financial problems. I am sure they are looking at ways to get things back to normal.

Machka 

If by "soon" you mean 1-2 years, then yes ... "soon".

And it'll likely be a NEW normal.

alo

People see how things are now, and think this will go on for a long time. Things will happen in the not-too-distant future that will surprise many people.

Machka 

Such as people finding that they actually like the way things are now and want them to continue this way?

Digger Goreman

So, will the 3ft passing rule necessarily change to 6 feet?

Mobile 155

At least. Unless you are in Italy or Spain, then no cycling allowed so no0 one to pass.

Mobile 155

At least. Unless you are in Italy or Spain, then no cycling allowed so no one to pass.

Mobile 155

However there are fewer people and getting them to stay in place was a lot easier. Here our largest and most dense urban areas are hit the hardest. And while it could spread to less dense area social distancing is a whole lot easier when people are not that close to start with. New York, Chicago, Detroit, LA. Seattle are hot spots and they all got hit about the same time. And they have a harder time social distancing if media reports can be believed. However here is an interesting on what "is" going on around the world. Urban areas are hardest hit now and will likely stay that way till there is some king of cure.

https://www.wri.org/blog/2020/03/cov...yre-coping-now

alloo

I don't think that Cities are dead. Transit rider ship is down 70% in Denver. Civilization was built on cities/towns/villages. The US in the late 20th century is built along the suburbs. Besides our infrastructure cannot handle all the cars of the suburbs. As a country, we prioritize entertainment, prisons, and military...etc. The results of suburbanization is social isolation, less bicycle friendly, more obese people, and fast food. You can take precautions by wearing masks and gloves. I prefer to be around people have lived the commuting life. Not for me. No thank you. Some transit agencies are free during this time. We're supposed to stay home. I ride my bike to work and have been enjoying less crowded roads. Our air quality has been better. Grocery shopping is getting better. You can always get your groceries delivered. I also ride a scooter around and love seeing people interact.

Mobile 155

It isn't cities that are dead or even dying. It is the concept of dense living, mass congregating that is taking a cultural hit. Towns and villages are easy to get people to go into their homes and avoid groups. But that doesn't "seem to be" the culture of the dense living urban citizen. It seems once out of sight of authority they seem to go back to old habits. And the attitude towards that activity is now coming into question. Even you seem to enjoy fewer people on your ride to work. For people used to living separate lives extreme measure don't seem necessary. . https://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs...ing-violations

cooker

Rural America Could Be the Region Hardest Hit by the COVID-19 Outbreak

https://www.healthline.com/health-ne...id-19-outbreak

350htrr

Actually, YES, Why...??? because they think they live in a "different world" in general... JMO By the time they realize they too, have the same problems... & While isolation would be easier, it's too late... JMO Look at what is happening in the more rural states, NO self isolation is suggested by their governments, where it actually could be done more successfully/easily… ...

EDIT; talking about culture change, how IS that going to work with the Amish & other religious peoples.. THAT MEET on mass every week...???

50PlusCycling

Here in Tokyo the population density is much higher than in New York, and despite the fact some of the earliest cases outside China occurred in Japan, the disease has been relatively slow to expand here. As I write, there are no lockdowns in Tokyo or the rest of Japan, stores and shops remain open, and people are still working. Museums and such are closed, schools are closed, sports events and tournaments are being held in empty stadiums or arenas. However, on the bright side, stores remain fully stocked, and one can buy toilet paper and things like that. Trains, subways, and buses are running as usual.

In Japan people tend to practice good personal hygiene, and this being the spring allergy season, a very large percentage of people wear face masks, as they have been doing for more than a century. With the virus outbreak, nearly everyone is wearing a mask. After the SARS outbreak a dozen years ago or so, stores and public buildings in Japan began placing hand sanitizer at their entrances, and though the outbreak eventually ended, stores and shops still keep hand sanitizers out front. These are generally alcohol sprays, and they seem to work pretty well. Though it is hard to practice anything like "social distancing" in Tokyo, people (other than train perverts) are not touchy-feely, so far the spread of the virus is not nearly as strong as in other countries.

Japan has a pretty good medical system, which has always been about 60% over-utilized, that means 60% of people who see a doctor or go to a hospital needn't have bothered. But on the positive side, this has caused Japan to build a larger number of clinics and hospitals. In America there are something like 2.3 hospital beds for every 1000 people, while Japan has some 16.8 beds for every 1000 people.

For the moment, the only thing we have close to a real figure in the coronavirus crisis is the number of fatalities, but even this number is far from exact. This is because in parts of the US, some hospitals are marking all respiratory-related deaths as possible coronavirus cases, while in other places people who were not tested before death are not tested afterward, so it is unknown if they died from the virus or not. Many of those who died and tested positive for the virus were not actually killed by it, but by pre-existing illnesses which would have killed them regardless.

Looking at the overall fatality rates around the world, these seem to be leveling off in places like Italy and Spain, France is beginning to level off. But the UK, Germany, and the US are not yet showing signs of leveling off. As for lockdowns, in Europe these seem to have had no effect, the virus spreads as quickly in locked down countries as it does in countries which are not locked down. The only place where a lockdown seems to have been effective is South Korea. But in South Korea the lockdown was drastically enforced, with all people being carefully tracked at all times, and with mass testing of the population. It seems the more people who are tested, the more cases they find, but the fatality rates also decline.

At the moment, it is hard to say what is going to happen in the future, but hopefully the virus should be played out by late summer.

Mobile 155

I hope you are right. Japan has a death rate of 2.41 compared to the US at 2.46. New York is driving the US rate because half of the deaths are there. And the rest of the country sees that figure every day. New Orleans is catching up. But Spain , France and Itally are scarry with 8+ percent 9+ percent and 12 percent. We will all wait and see how they recover.

Mobile 155

A counter point if you will------I see what you did there. "They think, They realize." Are you talking about people that aren't living in a hot spot at the moment? Are you talking about people big Urban center citizens are fleeing their cities to live among because? If your lifestyle is already more socially distanced and your infection rate is almost zero as is your death rate That is exactly what starts a cultural change. Some people live in a state when the mere suggestion of shelter in place works and some have to be hit on the head with a hammer. https://thehill.com/homenews/state-w...fines-of-up-to That is a cultural difference already. I am suggesting that much like the people that lived through the depression people living through this experience will not soon forget where and how the "hot spots" grew. It doesn't matter if it is all just perception it is how people are, IMHO. This is something I never thought I would see. https://abcnews.go.com/US/rhode-isla...ry?id=69862605

Read this and give me your impression if it isn't a cultural change. https://nypost.com/2020/03/19/we-sho...e-in-hamptons/

I am only basing my assumptions on what I see happening. I am not even trying to guess what happens after it is all over.

Leisesturm

China was Ground Zero of this thing. They couldn't have seen it coming. But they snapped into action and will be o.k. South Korea, Singapore and Japan were saved by one thing: mask wearing is socially acceptable and a large percent of the public is masked at any one time. This more than anything slowed spread of the virus. The contact tracing was possible because spread was not scattershot like in Western Countries where mask wearing is stigmatized. As I understand it, ventilators are a last resort. An absolute last resort. In China the survival rate of ventilator patients was 1 in 10!! So far in the U.S. it is running about 1 in 5. That is mainly because there is so little data in the US on anything related to this outbreak. I can't blame Ford or GM for not being more gung ho about having been conscripted to make ventilators when they are mainly going to serve as hospice equipment. Before the Coronavirus hit, and in the middle of an unprecedented period of growth in the U.S. economy, well over 200 healthy Americans were committing suicide due to the outrageously unbalanced income and opportunity divide. I've heard of rats chewing off a foot to get out of a trap. America just chewed off everything below the waist. We will be debating the wisdom of such extreme measures for at least the next 5 years.