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Yale study says actual death count is wrong

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Yale study says actual death count is wrong

Old 07-02-20, 08:51 AM
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Rider_1
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Yale study says actual death count is wrong

It's actually much higher. Suck it, haters and propagandists.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/01/offi...&ICID=ref_fark

Edit: the "suck it" is my contempt for those who are lying and downplaying the reality and severity of the pandemic, and spreading conspiracies. I am in no way revelling in these numbers.

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Old 07-02-20, 09:02 AM
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Using National Center for Health Statistics data, researchers at Yale University compared the number of excess U.S. deaths from any causes with the reported number of weekly U.S. Covid-19 deaths from March 1 through May 30. The numbers were then compared with deaths from the same period in previous years.
...yes. This is the methodology recommended by most of the professional epidemiologists with some sense of honesty I've read recently. I had not realized anyone had done this yet, so thanks for the link.
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Old 07-02-20, 11:57 AM
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I'm guessing a factor that lower the overall death rate is fewer car accidents, probably near offsetting increased deaths from postponing doctors visits, etc.

I'll also guess none of this is news to funeral homes.
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Old 07-02-20, 12:04 PM
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Ok, but why the "suck it"?
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Old 07-02-20, 12:27 PM
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I get confused. Which side are the haters and propagandists on?

I'll guess the vast majority are male, including inside the world of science, medicine and research. The woman who observed that Germany's first COVID case was infected by someone with no symptoms and tried to warn the world in January was immediately drowned out and discredited by male researchers with a different (more palatable) agenda. The (nearly entirely male) WHO got on board with those male researchers. Symptom-less transmission wasn't officially recognized by CDC and others for many weeks. The doctor that tried to get the western world on the right path is still discredited. That COVID hits males harder than females in general - crude justice.
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Old 07-02-20, 02:19 PM
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Originally Posted by AlmostTrick View Post
Ok, but why the "suck it"?
Yeah, that sounds confusing. I just wanted to agitate the A-holes who come on here with their denials and propaganda. Those who are trying to convince people that it is a hoax, that the numbers are much lower and that we are being lied to with inflated numbers. You know who they are.
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Old 07-02-20, 04:04 PM
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Originally Posted by 79pmooney View Post
I get confused. Which side are the haters and propagandists on?

I'll guess the vast majority are male, including inside the world of science, medicine and research. The woman who observed that Germany's first COVID case was infected by someone with no symptoms and tried to warn the world in January was immediately drowned out and discredited by male researchers with a different (more palatable) agenda. The (nearly entirely male) WHO got on board with those male researchers. Symptom-less transmission wasn't officially recognized by CDC and others for many weeks. The doctor that tried to get the western world on the right path is still discredited. That COVID hits males harder than females in general - crude justice.
I read the NY Times article on this whole debacle. Many peole have died as a consequence of the delayed and incorrect response. To get the story straight I reread the article underlining dates and the people involved. At one point the Surgeon General was discouraging people from using masks. There are still people in high positions working against the correct response.
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Old 07-02-20, 04:25 PM
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Actually I saw a news report a few days ago that traffic accidents were up.

https://ohsonline.com/articles/2020/...vid19.aspx?m=1

Originally Posted by 79pmooney View Post
I'm guessing a factor that lower the overall death rate is fewer car accidents, probably near offsetting increased deaths from postponing doctors visits, etc.

I'll also guess none of this is news to funeral homes.
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Old 07-02-20, 10:27 PM
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USA way too sheltered never faced real strife or famine. Has no clue how to handle a crisis that is real and not on network TV. After or if this all passes it will only get worse. We will have The Survivors, The Chosen Ones, The Dead Were GOD FORSAKEN, then the 2020 people .. Until the Poop hits the fan everyone will just look around and wonder how did that poop hit that fan
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Old 07-02-20, 11:35 PM
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Originally Posted by Hondo Gravel View Post
USA way too sheltered never faced real strife or famine. Has no clue how to handle a crisis that is real and not on network TV. After or if this all passes it will only get worse. We will have The Survivors, The Chosen Ones, The Dead Were GOD FORSAKEN, then the 2020 people .. Until the Poop hits the fan everyone will just look around and wonder how did that poop hit that fan
+1 Recently I've read several books on civilian life in Germany in the World Wars. We've never seen anything remotely close except the Civil War and even there, many not in combat zones still had their comforts.
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Old 07-03-20, 08:46 AM
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^^^^^^^^^ the soup kitchens of stalingrad REDUX
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... and so it goes
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Old 07-03-20, 08:48 AM
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^^^^^^^^ the rat soup of warsaw REDUX
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Old 07-03-20, 08:57 AM
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Originally Posted by AlmostTrick View Post
Ok, but why the "suck it"?

...some of us expect to be Raptured.
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Old 07-03-20, 09:57 AM
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The only statistic I pay attention to is the body count. Because dead is dead. People can argue forever but the only real reality is the corpses. That is what I’m looking to make my own assessment of what is going on.
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Old 07-06-20, 05:24 PM
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That's an interesting read. As a numbers guy, I'd be interested to get a look at the numbers in the original paper, and see how they deconflicted natural year-to-year variability in death numbers.

I listened to the WTF Podcast interview with Kenya Barris, his dad died a number of months ago (I forget whether it was maybe Feb or Mar?) and based on the symptoms which were mysterious at the time, he suspects it was corona before anybody really knew what was going on. I think he said he is trying to get autopsy samples tested.
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Old 07-06-20, 05:39 PM
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Here's the original paper: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...rticle/2767980 (full PDF can be downloaded from there)

They have many graphs showing March 1 - May 30 2020 projected/expected, and an obvious coronavirus bump of the actuals.

What I'd like to see is a graph showing separate March 1 - May 30 curves for 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, all basically on top of each other (slightly growing with population) but then 2020 should stand out like a sore thumb with a radically different shape.

They have a github page with data, maybe I can make that graph.
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Old 07-07-20, 06:45 AM
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Originally Posted by RubeRad View Post
Here's the original paper: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...rticle/2767980 (full PDF can be downloaded from there)

They have many graphs showing March 1 - May 30 2020 projected/expected, and an obvious coronavirus bump of the actuals.

What I'd like to see is a graph showing separate March 1 - May 30 curves for 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, all basically on top of each other (slightly growing with population) but then 2020 should stand out like a sore thumb with a radically different shape.

They have a github page with data, maybe I can make that graph.
28% higher. I thought it might be more than that. Good to see an actual number.
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Old 07-07-20, 07:11 AM
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Originally Posted by OwenMackay View Post
I think it is wrong. My friend's father died recently of a heart attack and they wrote the reason of death is COVID19
Are you saying all the extra dead people compared to the average just decided to die now? No reason, just happens to be a coincidence that a whole bunch of 'em popped off the perch during a pandemic? Makes sense....
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Old 07-07-20, 10:03 AM
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Originally Posted by OwenMackay View Post
I think it is wrong. My friend's father died recently of a heart attack and they wrote the reason of death is COVID19
Well maybe the 28% extra deaths this year are due to heart attacks, somebody should look into that too
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Old 07-07-20, 10:50 AM
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Originally Posted by RubeRad View Post
Well maybe the 28% extra deaths this year are due to heart attacks, somebody should look into that too
I'd expect heart attacks to be up because of COVID. It can go to the blood and blood vessels and we know it can cause strokes. The heart is pretty dependent on a reliable blood supply to do its thing.

So heart attack? No test for COVID? Or with even a positive test it could go down as a pre-existing condition (whether or not it was). 2020 might go down as the bumper crop year for heart attacks.
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Old 07-07-20, 10:58 AM
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Originally Posted by RubeRad View Post
Well maybe the 28% extra deaths this year are due to heart attacks, somebody should look into that too
As mentioned, COVID-19 is now recognized as a cardiovascular disease. The first person to die of this disease in the US, a woman in San Jose, dropped dead from a heart attack. No prior known conditions. They only discovered she had SARS-CoV-2 a few months after the death, when they went back and checked.

In addition, there is a huge reluctance for people to go to the ER with conventional (non-COVID) problems, including heart problems. So the body count can go up indirectly because of people not getting needed medical treatment for existing or newly-developing conditions.

Why do you always insist upon trying to explain away the death toll?
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Old 07-07-20, 10:59 AM
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Originally Posted by Trevtassie View Post
Are you saying all the extra dead people compared to the average just decided to die now? No reason, just happens to be a coincidence that a whole bunch of 'em popped off the perch during a pandemic? Makes sense....
It is re-election year.
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Old 07-07-20, 11:12 AM
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Originally Posted by wgscott View Post
Why do you always insist upon trying to explain away the death toll?
Why do you insist on insisting that I am trying to explain away the death toll?

OwenMackay is the one trying to explain away the death toll, I was just trying (and apparently failing) to make a sarcastic remark to point out, this study shows unequivocally that deaths (without regard to cause) are sharply up, so if anybody's going to try to explain away covid deaths as something else, then they have a new problem of having to explain how other causes of death explain the overall spike
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