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Eroica and Coronavirus

Old 03-09-20, 09:54 AM
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Eroica and Coronavirus

I doubt that anyone is going to welcome this discussion, but the CDC is recommending that people not take long and non-essential plane trips. Technically, I guess, Eroica is non-essential. I was inclined to go anyway on the twin assumptions that a) I would not get sick, and b) that even if I did get sick I would recover fine.

I still believe both of those things, but I have come to understand that the avoid-non-essential-travel recommendation is less about protecting the individual doing the traveling than those who might be infected as a result of the travel. I might get sick and recover fine, but some older resident of Cabot, Vermont who has some underlying health problems--and whom I might infect at the village store after I get back--might not be so lucky. To put it bluntly, I might kill someone without meaning to.

Of course, we accept that risk every time we choose to get behind the wheel of a car. I'm not quite sure how to calculate the odds on all this, but I do know that I'm more receptive to changing my plans on the basis of guilt than of fear.

To complicate things, I have to decide one way or the other within the next few days, since I would have to ship a bunch of stuff to Cambria sometime this week if I am in fact going.

How are others thinking about all this?
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Old 03-09-20, 10:04 AM
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Great thread. I hate to say this but I'm canning two trips I signed up for in June. Neither involves flying but they do involve meeting a thousand or more new friends. I think the risk is low but until they come up with better testing protocols or a vaccine, social isolation is likely the best route.
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Old 03-09-20, 10:05 AM
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Originally Posted by jonwvara View Post
I doubt that anyone is going to welcome this discussion, but the CDC is recommending that people not take long and non-essential plane trips. Technically, I guess, Eroica is non-essential. I was inclined to go anyway on the twin assumptions that a) I would not get sick, and b) that even if I did get sick I would recover fine.

I still believe both of those things, but I have come to understand that the avoid-non-essential-travel recommendation is less about protecting the individual doing the traveling than those who might be infected as a result of the travel. I might get sick and recover fine, but some older resident of Cabot, Vermont who has some underlying health problems--and whom I might infect at the village store after I get back--might not be so lucky. To put it bluntly, I might kill someone without meaning to.

Of course, we accept that risk every time we choose to get behind the wheel of a car. I'm not quite sure how to calculate the odds on all this, but I do know that I'm more receptive to changing my plans on the basis of guilt than of fear.

To complicate things, I have to decide one way or the other within the next few days, since I would have to ship a bunch of stuff to Cambria sometime this week if I am in fact going.

How are others thinking about all this?
I am in the construction industry and just saw a notice that an upcoming symposium in Atlanta, GA has been cancelled. There will likely be more of this type of response. There is also a lot of discussion about how the virus might affect the 2020 Olympics.

I think it boils down to using good judgment and perhaps when in doubt, erring on the side of caution. The part that I don't like is the "self-quarantine" aspect. Many have been told to do so and violated the recommendation. That is just stupid. I don't have an answer other than people should obey the advice of health officials, but there will always be those who throw caution and viruses to the wind.
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Old 03-09-20, 10:25 AM
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Update: Just saw a local example of what I was talking about. A guy and his daughter violated the "self-quarantine" and attended a "Father-Daughter" dance over the weekend. This verbiage from the news article is most concerning. There is still a lot we don't know.

"There's so far not a lot of information about whether people who aren't experiencing symptoms can also spread the virus. Neither the St. Louis County woman's father nor her sister are symptomatic and there isn't a reliable test for people who are asymptomatic at this time."
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Old 03-09-20, 11:02 AM
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I wasnít planning to go this year anyway, but I was scheduled to be in Paris the following Monday for a work-related conference. I had to cancel due to corporate policy restricting attendance at large events because of the virus. I was bummed, but I think itís the right decision.

Today I have what Iím pretty sure is just an ordinary cold. Itís mild enough that Iíd normally go into the office, but under the current circumstances Iíve decided itís best to work from home.
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Old 03-09-20, 11:09 AM
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Originally Posted by jonwvara View Post
I doubt that anyone is going to welcome this discussion, but the CDC is recommending that people not take long and non-essential plane trips. Technically, I guess, Eroica is non-essential. I was inclined to go anyway on the twin assumptions that a) I would not get sick, and b) that even if I did get sick I would recover fine.

I still believe both of those things, but I have come to understand that the avoid-non-essential-travel recommendation is less about protecting the individual doing the traveling than those who might be infected as a result of the travel. I might get sick and recover fine, but some older resident of Cabot, Vermont who has some underlying health problems--and whom I might infect at the village store after I get back--might not be so lucky. To put it bluntly, I might kill someone without meaning to.

Of course, we accept that risk every time we choose to get behind the wheel of a car. I'm not quite sure how to calculate the odds on all this, but I do know that I'm more receptive to changing my plans on the basis of guilt than of fear.

To complicate things, I have to decide one way or the other within the next few days, since I would have to ship a bunch of stuff to Cambria sometime this week if I am in fact going.

How are others thinking about all this?
I cancelled this yearís trip to the Sea Otter Classic...oh wait, the SOC cancelled on me.

I am not going to do the Campagnolo San Diego Gran Fondo.. There is always next year.
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Old 03-09-20, 11:16 AM
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I live near Fresno and just started hyping myself up for finally attending this year's eroica since it's so close to home, but the chances, however slight, of being part of a problem rather than a solution in this sensitive worldwide issue, have made me change my mind. Next year!
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Old 03-09-20, 11:26 AM
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There will be more accurate information on community transmission a month from now for sure, decisions to attend will no doubt be needed before then.
Not Good, not good.
My guess the attendance was less than expected over the course of time.
In prior years it almost always happened right at tax time. Not good for me.
This year a bit of a shift.
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Old 03-09-20, 12:23 PM
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I sure am conflicted. It took a lot of negotiating with my employer to get the 3 weeks off to drive and do some sightseeing plus I have a fair amount of $$ invested as well. On the other hand I would be devastated if I contracted it and passed it to a loved one who died. Hopefully the organizers will make the decision for me but I wouldn't bet on it.
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Old 03-09-20, 01:39 PM
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Damn, you're making me rethink my previous position.
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Old 03-09-20, 02:27 PM
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Originally Posted by gugie View Post
Damn, you're making me rethink my previous position.
And mine as well.

Mrs. Doc is not happy about me going as we are both well into the 'endangered group' by age. Have an entry, a plane ticket and a rental car but my guess is that I can get a credit or refund on the ticket based on circumstances and cancel the car. Likely we'll have to eat the cost of the house unless some sort of insurance was purchased. If they cancel the event hopefully there will be some provision for refund or credit.

Personally though, I'm gonna wait as long as possible. No need to ship stuff ahead, Jon, as the airlines have made it cheaper to fly with your bike as a second bag ($40!) than ship it ahead ($120 to California just a few weeks ago). So if I bail at the last minute, no huge financial loss.

I would miss seeing everyone, though...:-(
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Old 03-09-20, 04:44 PM
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Originally Posted by TugaDude View Post
Update: Just saw a local example of what I was talking about. A guy and his daughter violated the "self-quarantine" and attended a "Father-Daughter" dance over the weekend. This verbiage from the news article is most concerning. There is still a lot we don't know.

"There's so far not a lot of information about whether people who aren't experiencing symptoms can also spread the virus. Neither the St. Louis County woman's father nor her sister are symptomatic and there isn't a reliable test for people who are asymptomatic at this time."
I was in St. Louis over rhe weekend. Not sure how "stay home" can be misinterpreted. Perhaps people whose kids attend exclusive private schools don't have to understand. I mean, how could Buffy possibly miss the dance?

Heck, I'm nervous after being at Helen Fitzgerald's for St. Baldrick's.
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Old 03-09-20, 04:56 PM
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As I posted in the 2020 European Vintage rides thread, Gran Corsa, following the Milano-San Remo route, was cancelled last week. I was planning to go, and the organizers wrote that I can use my entry for 2021. Now, you can't leave all of Italy as of today. My CEO banned all business travel until June 30.

That said, I'm still open to flying down to North Carolina in May to visit friends, but I don't have to make that decision for a few weeks. We'll see.
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Old 03-09-20, 05:01 PM
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I had to cancel Italy (Rome and Venice) for the 2nd year in a row.


Not exactly Eroica related or bike but darn virus has caused damage.
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Old 03-09-20, 05:12 PM
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Aren't we getting a bit too far ahead of ourselves? I mean, if the Corona stats have you worried, have a look at these numbers:

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Old 03-09-20, 05:49 PM
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Originally Posted by non-fixie View Post
Aren't we getting a bit too far ahead of ourselves? I mean, if the Corona stats have you worried, have a look at these numbers:
Right, well, even if you took the smallest number of possible flu illnesses (34,000,000) and divided that by the largest number of deaths (52,000) then you get one in every 643 people. Currently in the US there are about 500 positive Coronavirus cases, and 19 confirmed deaths. That's roughly one out of every 25 people who have tested positive just in the US. Worldwide the numbers are roughly 114,000 with 4,000 deaths, or one in every 28 people.

Big difference, there.

I'm not one to get all jumpy about things and I'm a pretty healthy 31 year old man, but my mother has multiple sclerosis and my father is a smoker, so I certainly wouldn't want to come home as a carrier only to get someone like them sick. And there are a lot of people like them.

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Old 03-09-20, 05:52 PM
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You may not have a choice. Not only are large events currently restricted in Italy, the whole country is literally on lock-down.
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Old 03-09-20, 05:54 PM
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Originally Posted by Barrettscv View Post
You may not have a choice. Not only are large events currently restricted in Italy, the whole country is literally on lock-down.
I'm pretty sure we're discussing Eroica California.
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Old 03-09-20, 05:56 PM
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Originally Posted by Kilroy1988 View Post
I'm pretty sure we're discussing Eroica California.
The opening thread does not specify and several post mention Italy.
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Old 03-09-20, 05:57 PM
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Originally Posted by non-fixie View Post
Aren't we getting a bit too far ahead of ourselves? I mean, if the Corona stats have you worried, have a look at these numbers
The seasonal flu is uncontained. That ship has sailed. If there were something that could be done to stop it, weíd do that. COVID-19 isnít yet uncontained in the same way. If it becomes part of our daily existence like the common cold or the flu, it will probably be worse. It seems unlikely at this point that weíll be able to contain it, but anything we can do to slow it down buys time for researchers to work on a vaccine. Thatís probably the goal at this point.
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Old 03-09-20, 05:58 PM
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Originally Posted by Kilroy1988 View Post
Right, well, even if you took the smallest number of possible flu illnesses (34,000,000) and divided that by the largest number of deaths (52,000) then you get one in every 643 people. Currently in the US there are about 500 positive Coronavirus cases, and 19 confirmed deaths. That's roughly one out of every 25 people who have tested positive just in the US. Worldwide the numbers are roughly 114,000 with 4,000 deaths, or one in every 28 people.

Big difference, there.

I'm not one to get all jumpy about things and I'm a pretty healthy 31 year old man, but my mother has multiple sclerosis and my father is a smoker, so I certainly wouldn't want to come home as a carrier only to get someone like them sick. And there are a lot of people like them.
Thanks for a concise explanation.
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Old 03-09-20, 06:06 PM
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If it gets cancelled, I may drive down there and spend the weekend all by my lonesome riding my bike. Who needs the unwashed masses to have a good time. I am starting to get the feeling that the organizers will cancel. While I am not worried about my own health, i see what others are saying about killing a loved one or a stranger inadvertently ​​​​​​​. That is something to consider for sure.
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Old 03-09-20, 06:08 PM
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...I usually exhibit some flowers in the annual Sacramento Camellia show here, which happened over the past weekend. I skipped it this year. I enjoy the show, but not enough to balance the risk reward calculation. NorCal is kind of an active area for community transfer right now, and I doubt that will have changed by the time the NorCal eroica ride is scheduled. There will be other Camellia shows, and other NorCal eroica's.
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Old 03-09-20, 06:43 PM
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Im really dissapointed about this year due to the virus. Im a long time steel rider and was looking to my long over due first eroica and meeting many of the super posters and participants. Another favorite CA event was just cancelled, the Indian Wells Tennis Tournament, which was one of the greatest and almost on par with the 4 tour or open events, USO, Wimbledon, FO & AO. I also have family in CA and am waiting now to visit. 2020 is really looking like a historic year.
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Old 03-09-20, 06:53 PM
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Originally Posted by Barrettscv View Post
The opening thread does not specify and several post mention Italy.
Oops, you're right, I didn't mention California, just Cambria. This is the sort of unforced error that used to really irk me in my editing days. Sorry!
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