mandovoodoo

It's sustainable as long as UPS and FedEx deliver. We're going to open up the abandoned portions next year and put in crops.

So much depends on population density. I suspect we'll end up at the fringe of the more dense population, with public transport a relatively short distance away. Used to be that way - the old rail line was 3 miles away with a station. Wouldn't be terribly surprising to see that rise again!

mike

Well, one thing I DID notice this weekend is that I rode the Chicago rails which I have not done for a long time. Despite it being the weekend, the trains were full all day long. Most of the riders were youngish - teens to early twenties.

Clearly, the Chicago rails are being used more than before.

I did also notice that the Chicago area has not yet seen the gas prices drop like they have in other parts of the USA.

KrisPistofferson

I think I learned in 1st grade science class that oil was a non-renewable resource, the dip in prices that occurs at the end of every summer doesn't make it not so, nor does it make every other developed nation want oil any less. Wingnuts on both sides want to scapegoat someone, from Bush to Treehuggers, but the naked truth is that it is a finite resource that is in increasing demand. Any worthwhile plan for the future is going to take that into account, whereas "business as usual" will be disastrous.

I am not a doomsayer, such as Kunstler, but I am not a "Don't worry, be happy" -type, either. Plans need to be made on a governmental level as well as the level of the individual American. Personally, I have become quite the scooter-afficianado.

bicycleptic

I believe a lot of societies attitude depends on what age group one falls into. I know young people fresh out of high school who dont seem to be particularly alarmed by gas hitting 4 bucks a gallon. But then they have probably never paid below $2.50. On the other hand when I was a teenager and worked at a station gas was under a dollar still. I started cycling for more then recreation when gas hit $1.50. Now the only thing that stops me from cycling to work is thick fog, lightning and snow/ice on the road.

What I have observed is that once gas hit $2 it never again dropped below $1. Then once it hit $3 it never again dropped below $2. Now that it has hit $4 I am willing to wager it will never again drop below $3. You can blame it on Bush or any other one person you want to but I dont believe one person can control gas prices. It is supply and demand. More demand then supply I believe.

If you sold widgets and could double the price on widgets and still sell just as many widgets as before would you lower the price on the widgets back to what it was before?

Bramble

Just 8 months ago at the beginning of 2008 the average price of gas was right around $3, now everybody's excited that its under $4. Its still about a dollar increase in less then a year.

For fun with historical gas price graphs, see gasbuddy.com. https://www.gasbuddy.com/gb_retail_pr...t.aspx?time=12

Cyclaholic

Mike, I don't the gas shortage or the bike revolution have even truly begun.... yet.

When will it truly begin? well, you know how so many scooters are being sold right now? when everyone is on scooters and there are no cars in private ownership, and people start abandoning their scooters because they can't afford to fill the scooter's tank, that's when we'll see the start of the real bike revolution.

Sangetsu

There is not, and hasn't been any gas shortage. The high price of gas is the result of speculation in the energy markets. With the real estate market having collapsed, investers have been looking for a place to put their money, the obvious choice was the energy market. With the war in Iraq, nuclear proliferation in Iran, Chavez in Venezuela, and unrest in North Africa, there is plenty of cause for there to be concern enough to drive the energy markets higher. But even with all the aforementioned facts, there has been no reduction in oil production or supply.

Iran is trying very hard to manipulate the markets to keep the price of oil high. Have you ever noticed than when oil starts to trend downward, Iran does something to make headline news? Whether it is declaring that they have succeeded in enriching uranium, or test fired missiles, or stated they will deny the UN access to their nucler sites, every single time oil drops by more than 2%, Iran will do something to scare investors into jacking the price back up again.

Venezuela was doing the same thing last year, threatening to confiscate oil company assets and equipment, and nationalizing public utilities. It was all done to further increase already record high oil prices.

The head of the Federal Reserve has suggested limiting the stock market's ability to speculate in oil and gas, but they fear that if they act in such a way, speculators will just move to European and Asian markets, continuing to keep the price high, and removing what little real influence the American stock market has on the energy market.

atbman

Randya, I emailed the Prime Minister, but he hasn't answered.

parker63

https://yehudamoon.com/images/strips/2008-08-03.gif

FLYBYU

I often wonder what it would be like if we couldn't afford to drive. Would it send us straight back to the days of horses and wagons or what? I read a statistic a while back that said if we stopped polluting completely right now, it would take 100 years for the earth to return to it's natural state. People start riding a bike to work to save money, but that is just doing it for selfish reasons, what about destroying the place where we live with polution? That is why I don't see the point in scooters, it is just another way to be lazy and save yourself a little coin.

monk

You say this as if you think gas prices going down is a bad thing.

capejohn

First of all, when did we have a gas shortage? The prices will come down dramatically once the companies get their way with offshore drilling.

There is still no movement on efficiency, and till that happens there will always be an energy problem.

Four dollar gas didn't do much to slow down the waste. Five or six dollars may but I don't think the government has the where-with-all to bring the prices that high.

genec

I don't think the government controls the price of oil... did you happen to notice Exxon's profit reports this week?

cod.peace

Gas may be cheaper, but wait til winter. Heating oil in New England is predicted to be around $4.50/gal, compared with $3.30/gal last year. Natural gas is up, what, 40% over last year? I don't use any so I don't follow that price too much.

randya

BS

crhilton

+1

Edit: My bird jumped on my keyboard.

iflyskyhawks

I find it mildly hilarious that when gas drops from $4 to $3.50 that people are running in the street rejoicing at how "cheap" gas has become and how the big drop is going to decrease bicycle use, increase SUV sales, etc.

The oil companies must be thrilled. We've all lost sense of how much we were paying before this double-digit percentage price increase started happening.

I second the "talk to me when gas is below $2" comment someone else made.

Now, get on your bike and start pedaling!

mandovoodoo

Something very important to consider when thinking of new exploration is the time to market of any new oil sought. Exploration takes a long time. Drilling wildcats does, too. Then there's development. It's not months and often not even a few years.

But every time cost jumps, smaller and harder to find targets become viable. So exploration will go on until the energy cost of exploration exceeds what we get back out.

In the meantime, I expect pretty soon for conservation to rear its head. Cycles play right into that.

Imagine if every manufactured home in the US was done as green and energy efficient as possible. Solar heat, solar water heat, flash heaters for water, etc. There's no reason it can't be done.

rocoach

Oil drilled in America, Alaska, etc. will be sold by Chevron, Exxon, et al to the Chinese and the rest of the world. What makes you think it will solely be for the use of Americans, and thus reduce the cost to Americans? The primary beneficiaries of Alaska oil will be the big oil companies.

trackhub

I don't think there was any actual shortage, at least not a 70's style shortage. Prices are coming down because people aren't driving as much. I've noticed this on my evening rides. There simply are not as many cars on the road. Riding up Commonwealth Avenue toward Boston College the other evening, I was almost tempted to ask "Where is everybody?" Many cyclists out though.

I'd like to think people will not get the idea to run right out and buy a Hummer, simply because a gallon of regular us under four bucks. But, Americans are funny about this. A year ago, there was whining galore because a gallon of regular was approaching three dollars. And now? "Oh look honey! Gas is back down to less than four dollars! That's so cheap! Let's go buy that Lincoln Navigator, so our kids will be safe!" Yeah, kind of like that.

All it will take is one little thing, such as a snafu at a refinery, or a platform in the gulf going off-line because of a hurricane, and prices will be right back up there. Let's not forget, Labor Day weekend is approaching. Pump prices are sure to spike then.

One more thing: As cyclists, we all like to eat. Some of eat quite a bit. Hopefully, lower fuel prices will mean lower grocery prices. But, I'm not very optimistic about that.

Bikepacker67

Ya...
The fact that the Fed has injected the printing presses with steroids, or that world demand has smacked head-first into the wall of world production have nothing to do with it.

crhilton

I think I read it was down 3% in the US for june compared to june last year. I don't know about the rest of the world. I actually found that pretty shocking.

Sammiches

Here in the economic badlands of Michigan gas prices are just about down to where they were this time last year. I drove then, but I'll keep biking my commute. The health benefits just can't be ignored.

Besides, the price will go right back up next summer anyway (if it takes that long). I'll just keep biking 8 - 9 months of the year without bothering with daily prices of fuel. I just wish I could bike during winter, but my commute would always be in the dark, on snowy/icy/black-iced roads. A 40 mile commute in that is beyond brave and well into stupidity.

Now we're looking at nasty prices for home heating this winter. I don't have a good solution for that.

crhilton

If you haven't already you might try turning the thermostat down and buying sweaters. I'm told this does wonders for the heating bill with almost no initial investment.

RobertHurst

Blaming speculators for high oil prices is just political scapegoatsmanship. Speculators would be equally responsible for the recent precipitous 25$ decline, and still people talking about speculators and their high oil prices?

If speculation were responsible for the run-up in oil, then we would see stockpiles increasing, but that is not the case.