downtube

Margin on parts is 50%, bikes is around 40%, but expensive bikes have a lower margin.

Assuming Peter goes with dealers, I expect the Helix to sell for around 3k, which means dealers need 2k to inventory them. I don't see many dealers buying in.

Thanks,
Yan

Jipe

Anyway, those who want to be the first to have an Helix (if it is ever produced) should better pre-order than take over a backer position.

KentS

Man I can't wait until spring of 2018!

"ORDERS FOR HELIX WILL RESUME SPRING 2018"
--www.helix.ca

Jipe

You can be sure that orders will resume as soon as Helix production will really start !

Gibsonsean

Interesting insights Yan.

Helix have heavily invested in automation which helps with cost long term of course but is only really worthwhile for volume and scalability.

What do we think Helix's target markets look like, what pricepoint and volumes makes them viable and can these be acheived? Assuming ambitions for volume, can this be acheived without a dealer network?

avole

I think that's a bit late to be asking now, but I assume Helix have already researched all the above. ìf they haven't, then it's wing and a prayer time

Gibsonsean

I would hope they have a business plan but they haven't shared it with backers. No reason why they should.*

Interested in other's informed perspectives.

downtube

Things are constantly changing, hence I would expect the business plan has evolved....and will continue to evolve.

There is no reason for them to share it publicly. Does Dahon, Brompton, etc share their business plan?

Thanks
Yan

avole

Brompton's is pretty east to work out. No-one is asking that Helix publish their business plan only saying they must have one that answers the queries raised earlier.

I'm certain it would have evolved, too, since missing order and delivery targets would not have been part of the original

Joe Remi

I'm fairly certain entering the folding bike market in 2019 was not in the original plans...

Gibsonsean

Today's update: Custom parts are well in train with various sets coming in between now and late August. Piccies of lots of shiny custom parts.

MrFlamey

Slightly dissapointing that the parts are scheduled to arrive at the end of August, as I thought it was supposed to be this month, so that means another month of no bikes shipping, and it's becoming more and more likely I won't have a bike ready for Autumn (pretty much the best bike riding season here in Japan). I guess I still have my current bike I sure hope they have everything they need for full assembly by the end of August, but I won't be surprised if there are more delays or issues with supplied parts.

FolderBeholder

I have no dog in this fight so to speak....not a backer, nor an interested potential client. Just another spectator (Im guessing one of many here) watching, waiting to see how this plays out.

I am however, a firm believer in the “how you do anything, is how you do everything” school of thought, and thats the part that concerns me for those who DO have a vested interest in this bicycle product.

Fingers crossed for those of you who do....and I hope the outcome is spectacular.

Lalato

There have been times in this odyssey that I have envied backers and pre-orderers, but that was mostly in the early days. Now I'm just in it for the guilty pleasure of watching a slow motion train wreck.

Even if the backers get the goods,.. this will still have been a bit of worthwhile drama for me. If they don't get the goods, I'll be happy that the drama isn't punching me directly in the face. if they do get the goods, I'll be salivating over reading reviews and ogling pics of the new bikes.

alextide

Hi,
for backers I can see people want to get their bike.
If helix can get models into shops that you can test ride and buy on the spot would people (who haven't ordered one) on this forum go and buy them?

It seems Peter has created something people really want, except perhaps at that price it is too good to be true.

The fact that the thread is still alive, I think means people really want it and are frustrated they can't buy it. Am I wrong?

unclejemima

Gibsonsean

next weekend now.

ladi

Except that it does not exist yet. He made a prototype for the video years ago. But has any independent party tested the bike? Has anyone tested it in its entirety? Was there a trade show where people could test ride it?

Maybe it rides terrible for most people, can not handle the weight, breaks after a couple of months, the folding mechanism needs constant adjustment, it costs 5k or more to produce... There are many factors that could go wrong. And in no way should we compare this idea of a bike to any of the existing products in the folding bike market. Their promise 3 years ago was to create "The world's best folding bike.". Until now there is nothing to be seen of this.

Gibsonsean

True, and not true.

True, in that a production bike has not neen launched to market yet and until the production bike is riden and reviewed, and indeed until you can personally test ride one, it does not exist.

Not true, in that there is adequate information available to backers to understand that there is a much iterated design, a manufacturing process to realise that design and a number of production samples of the bike which all promise a great product.

The design and manufacturing process are both impressive. That does not guarantee that the end product will ride well or last, but what we know is encouraging on both fronts. Manufacturing cost and marketing strategy are largely unknowns at this stage, so commercial viability is even more of a guess.

Only time will tell if the product is good to ride, reliable and commercially viable.

Alextide is right though that there is a waiting market for this product if it is realised to expectation. Many have already backed or bought sight unseen and bike unproven. If it is not terrible or overpriced, many more will buy once the bike is released and reviews are in, but long before longevity is proven.

avole

A waiting market? As I've already mentioned, the market has changed since the design was first announced. There's a strong chance it has missed the boat. After all, if you want to produce a bike that will better the best - and that is the stated market - then there's only one or maybe two companies that are your targets, and both are flourishing. The rest of the folding bike market is happy, and rightly so, with inexpensive bikes made in one of the Chinas.

Gibsonsean

The 'market' has changed in the last 3 years. The folder market has grown and continues to grow strongly, as does the bike market in general. The new dynamics really are the e-bike market, dockless bike schemes and other such schemes.

The Helix is a unique design which shifts the balance of compromise on a folder significantly. If the price is right it will pick up market share from established premium folder brands for that reason primarily. It may also attract some who would normally go for a hybrid for similar reasons.

They certainly will need to address the e-bike side of things, as some of the established players are doing, but plenty of people want a bike over an e-bike and prefer to own over shared options.

avole

Gibsonsean

​​​My points above are in reference to the premium folder market specifically, not the general market.

Do you know something about the final pricing that the rest of us don't? We don't know what final costs will be or where they will drive the pricing. Helix will definitely be targeting the premium market but where in this is yet to be seen.

Which brands do you see it trying to compete with?

Seems strange for Helix to have invested so heavily in highly scalable, cost reducing automation of the manufacture process if they are aiming at a tiny niche at the very top end.

On the cost front, which tariffs do you mean and how do you see these putting Helix at a market disadvantage? As far as i am aware Canada has not instated any tariffs on titanium tubing or bike parts from the east and no country has recently changed their tariffs on folding bicycles from Canada?

Jipe

As you say, the real dynamic of the bike market growth is Ebike, not folders or any other type of bike.

There is a big demand and no fully valid offer for a folding Ebike not for a premium folding bike and actually until a test ride proves it, Helix has no proven advantage compared to a Brompton. The bigger wheel size is not sufficient to provide better performances but will surely increase the weight and as we know from other kickstarter project the announced weight may be wrong.

Imagine you are a multimodall commuter, what would Helix bring compared to a Brompton ? Brompton is smaller folded, ride very well and has a lot of practical advantages (it is fully equipped with mudguards, hub dynamo lights and a full range of bags and other accessories). Those people do not care about having a titanium frame, this is something for high end bike geeks, not for dally commuters.
And so, even if Helix is a very good bike, it will remain a niche market for beautiful high end bike lovers.

About the growth of the folding bike market, note that Brompton CEO promises for growth (when Brompton moved to its new, much bigger, factory) didn't happen and Brompton has a real brand name and is cheaper than what can be expected from Helix.

avole

No need to be so aggressive. I think you probably already know the answers to your questions, so I'm not going to bother other than to say I'm assuming they'll want to be selling into the US market.