Lazyass

How many more years do you think the industry can milk the dollars before serious riders decide to go back to aluminum, ti and steel? I mean, there has been a slow resurgence, but when do you think it will pick up speed?

D1andonlyDman

As soon as Titanium, or some other better material than Carbon-fiber becomes cheaper. Which means not in the foreseeable future. Steel is heavier relative to strength than CF, and Aluminum is vertically stiffer, whereas CF can be designed to be stiff in one dimension while compliant in another, meaning it's easier to make it comfortable while laterally stiff than Aluminum.

Frankly, I like steel and I like CF, and if I got a deal on a frame, I'd try Ti, but I won't buy another Aluminum frame, because I can get steel that I prefer riding (despite it being heavier), for less than Aluminum.

dtrain

That could be a long wait, Lazyass.

cale

Steel. How quaint.

mercator

Not in our lifetimes.

Silvercivic27

Won't happen with existing materials. Will happen when the next Wundermaterial is discovered/invented.

Worknomore

When unobtainum becomes obtainium.

Dave Cutter

Some serious audiophiles enjoy vinyl records... with amps that use vacuum tubes (low hum). But.... I don't see an end to MP3 or apple tunes for a resurgence to the OLD days of spinning records. Rarely... if ever does technology ever turn back the clock.

The appreciation of steel among serious cyclists could last for as long as with have cyclist (or bicycles). But steel will never return as the dominate bicycle material. And carbon can't remain on top forever ether... but carbon will never likely hold a place as number two.

I can't guess or predict what new material will replace carbon fiber. But as sure as sales drop low enough... big name bicycle makers will come up with something stronger... and maybe even lighter... as well as cheaper.

AMusingFool

When people stop caring about aero frames?

Trsnrtr

In this age of computer design and analysis and custom lay-up of carbon, they aren't going away any time soon.

kbarch

Say what you will about the merits of various materials, but it does seem that CF is the default for those who are superficially indifferent to or ignorant of those merits, simply because it is "the latest and greatest," regardless of whether it is ultimately the most appropriate for the buyer/rider. So looking at it that way, unless something new is developed beforehand, I'd say it will take another 10 years or so for it to lose that cachet.

cale

The sort of thing that puts the end to something is a serious health risk. For example, asbestos is a miracle fiber but fortunately it was discovered, after a great deal of it had already been used, to be harmful to one's health. That put an end to asbestos.

If you could imagine a carbon fiber flaw so great that it posed a risk to riders and the public, THEN I think the end of carbon fiber will be near.

cale

There are always exceptions to the rule, but questioning the intelligence of buyers is a lot like questioning the intelligence of oneself. After all, it isn't long before everyone get wrapped up in someone's definition of a rube, so we all must be rubes. I don't like to think I'm a rube so I try not to make a fuss about how other people make decisions.

Silvercivic27

As soon as we start bike racing on Mars or the moon.

Silvercivic27

Gee...I don't know... Have you ever gotten a Carbon Fiber Splinter? Yowch!!!

KevinF

Haven't you heard? Carbon fiber frames explode without warning.

dmanthree

Interesting question. I think when Captain Wrongway Peachfuzz finally does find Mt. Flatten, and it's determined that Upsadasium, of which said mountain is composed of, is shown to have sufficient qualities to serve as a bike frame, it's over for Carbon. Mt. Flatten, a floating mountain, proves that Upsadasium is very light, lighter than air, actually, so if it's stiff enough we can finally have frames that weight nothing. And that's with components installed. I look forward to the day when Captain Peachfuzz finally does find Mt. Flatten. It will be a great day for cycling. More info here:

The HJO3 Project

greenlight149

when they can mass produce graphene cheaply

transporterjr

When people care about end of life cycle recyclability, I guess.
Steel (or aluminum bike) strip the tires, throw in the metal bin at the dump and it gets turned back into steel. Of course I'm still riding a 32-33 year old steel bike and I am going to turn my 40 year old Raleigh into a single speed, so I have not reached end of life with those bikes yet.

I did buy a 90's carbon and aluminum bike, but I probably would not buy a new carbon fiber bike.

bikemig 

I'm sticking with steel bikes and MP3 files.

Vicegrip

Carbon will only get better and less expensive. Unlike many other materials it is early in its development overall and has an open-ended future. Unlike heat fused round tubes CF can be designed and tuned intricately and it will only become better as time passes.

StanSeven

Carbon is the only material that can be selectibly formed. This allows certain areas to be stronger while the rest stays light. It also allows for aero shaping.

Nothing else can match the weight but will be in readily important with the UCI limit lowered.

popeye

CF rules not because it is the "latest-greatest", it rules on merit. It will only get cheaper to the point where there will be nothing else.

cale

I'm trying to feel guilty but I only have a aluminum and a carbon fiber bike. If I keep that bike or, more to the point, it remains undamaged, should I worry about its end of life? It's less than 2 lbs of carbon fiber.

StanSeven

I don't see a slow resurgence with anything except maybe hand built custom steel. Those are in very small numbers.

Carbon has been around for 20 years and it keeps growing. It's hard to find a mid to high end bike in anything but carbon. If you don't mind no name Chinese, carbon doesn't cost more than anything else.