Platy

Okay, here's a thread to discuss peak oil from the Living Car Free point of view.

kf5nd

In a nasty peak oil scenario (with shortages), cyclists will still be on the move. Everyone else will be weeping and wailing by the side of the road, unable to disconnect themselves emotionally from their useless hunks of steel.

gerv 

I first read about Peak Oil here on BF a while back. It was in a hugh thread started by tightwad and frankly it seemed a little 'out there" (although when you think about it, seems like common sense... all good things come to an end).

However, recently, I've noticed a lot of people talking about it. Colleagues I haven't seen in years and would never have thought they'd be interested. One of them mentioned that Peak Oil was his main reason for dumping a largish vehicle and purchasing a hybrid car.

I think recent shortages in the US midwest and in Canada... mainly due to refinery issues... have really brought this topic to the forefront.

Wogster

There are three possible scenarios, the doomsday scenario, the economic scenario, and something that resembles a cross between the two.

The doomsday scenario. In this case there is a rapid decrease it available supply it really only needs to be about 5%, this leads to some stations running out of gas, panic buying spikes demand, which also spikes prices and leads to much larger shortages, which leads to even more panic buying, which leads to further even larger shortages (and higher prices), the cycle continues until the whole system collapses. People of course unable to get to jobs 40 miles from home, and unable to get to stores 30 miles away, end up unemployed and hungry leading to more crime. Eventually with a massive decrease in population, we get to a point where things become sustainable.

The economic scenario. In this case there is a relatively small decrease in available supply, which leads to higher prices, which leads people to look for alternative means to get around. There is a much larger demand for things like transit, you see a lot more motorcycles, scooters and bicycles on the roads. People start moving back into cities, there is a massive building boom, to add new density to the cities, many far flung suburbs become ghost towns, others become towns or cities on their own right. Increased shipping costs, mean that people buy more stuff made locally, so there is a new demand for small scale manufacturing, and a lot more foods are eaten that are grown locally. A lot of the anal retentive zoning laws get repealled or simply ignored, in order to make the thing work. Government passes new laws, so that the remaining supply is used for manufacturing and fuel for industries like railways and farming. New low energy technologies replace high energy ones. Eventually you get to the point where most people use very little petroleum products, and what little demand is left, is less then the supply available.

I expect that different scenarios will actually happen in different places. The US will follow the doomsday scenario, Europe will follow the economic one, and most other places (including Canada and Australia) will end up somewhere inbetween. For example Canada will see panic buying and massive price increases, but will also see people moving back into cities and using alternative ways to get around.

pedex

the 60 top producing fields are in decline........and these are the big ones for the most part, the types of oil fields that havent been found since the 60's

oil discovery has lagged production for decades

all the new projects coming online the next 3 years wont even cover existing declines from depletion of the above mentioned fields and even running at 100% wont be enough in 3 years to even hardly make a dent

^^^ thats a very brief distilled overview which has been hashed and rehashed on theoildrum.com which is prettymuch one of the defacto energy forums, from average joe to guys in the oil biz post on it and participate in various conferences around the world

every country im aware of off the top of my head with the exception of norway that has encountered a peaking of their own domestic oil fields has failed to heed the data in front of their faces and face up to what depletion means............and some countries have been royally burned by it, the US is on that list

same scenario every time:
they drill
they core
they map
they pump
now they know how much is there
they pump as fast as possible
they get to around 50% and all of a sudden their predictions were spot on and they IGNORE it, act like it isnt possible

then 3 years later when they have years of declining production despite frantic drilling they go "oh sheot"

and in the case of modern oil operations the declines can be damn steep, like more than 10% per year......modern extraction methods havent really increased the amount of recoverable oil, just made it come out faster

2006 saw world records being set in the gulf of mexico........drilling records, deepest deep water wells ever, you dont do this kind of nonsense unless you HAVE TO

are we at peak oil, I think we are on a plateau soon to be on a decline that may be bumpy at times but downward anyway, I think so far the numbers are showing a peak about 2 years ago of crude plus condensate production, time will tell, should know more in june if or when Saudi Arabia is forced to back up their claims with actual oil production

what will that mean for us? not much, not for awhile yet.......other less fortunate and poorer countries will be priced out long before we are, lots of shortages will happen before we deal with anything more than small ones assuming no more wars or big storms wiping out stuff

do we have time to deal with it the right way? doubt it, im not counting on the govt even being much help, probably make things worse, ethanol from corn is one of those decisions thats already happened


then we have peak coal too, the US peaked in btu's of coal per year long ago, the easy to get good stuff is gone, now we level mountains to get at the mediocre stuff or dig way way deep into the ground

not very cheerful news is it? isnt the first time a civilization has pinned its whole existence on a finite resource with no back up plan, the problem is record big in scale though this time around

cerewa

... and public transit won't be doing too bad. Electric trains and electric buses/trolleys will be doing fine as long as electricity is doing fine (and coal and nuclear plants will have fuel for quite some time). Diesel buses will gain passengers if cars lose them, and will use less fuel per passenger. Fuel will remain available for making bicycles and their component metals because, whatever the cost of making bicycles, transportation-bikes will be cheaper than cars and public transit.

Meanwhile, the heating of homes will go through an upheaval if/when oil and natural gas prices skyrocket. Electric heat costs more and the electric grid can't handle the load if everybody switches quickly to electric heat. If you can't get natural gas or oil at a price you can afford, your natural gas or oil heater will be useless and you'll have to shell out for whatever system (if any) is affordable.

bragi

This is a serious problem, one that, along with global warming, makes me very, very nervous. It's the kind of problem that will, by necessity, utterly transform the culture, but it needn't destroy it. If we act rationally and quickly, we could avoid the worst effects. My great fear, though, which I think is a well-founded one, is that there is no one in a leadership position, in the US at least, that's up to the challenge. The people currently infesting the White House are venal, dishonest, and cowardly; they are, in effect, a catalyst for disaster. The people who want to replace them are, at best, depressing. Even more scary are the public at large, who seem oblivious to what's in front of their noses, even though their very livelihoods may be at stake. Right now would be a really good time to come up with a controlled fusion reaction...

AverageCommuter

I think Wogster and Pedex are spot-on. Personally I feel it's already too late, especially for the US. The changes we need to make needed to be made 15 or 20 years ago. When we start sliding down the back side of that peak, if we aren't already, things are going to fall apart fast.

Aren't I just little Mary sunshine.

wahoonc

Gloom and doom merchant However I agree with you. The change IS NOT going to be coming from the goverment, it is going to come from the local grass roots organizations and the individuals.

Aaron

maddyfish

You guys get a little too giddy when you talk about this stuff.

In your doomsday senario, personally, I think in most cities ( excluding the truly functional cities, NY, Seattle, Portland, ect) will turn into refuges for the poor, diseased, and homeless ( even more than they are now), and buisness of all types will move to the suburbs. Buisness will need it's jobs filled NOW, it won't be able to wait for big cities to be cleaned out enough to be liveable for the working people. So, buisness will move to wear the capable workers are.

JugglerDave

One possible economic side effect -- for every car that someone doesn't use or someone doesn't purchase (as gas becomes scarce or expensive) there is $8000 per year (or similar) to be spent on other transportation, whether it be taxes to fund public transit, shared-ride services, etc.

I predict that the suburbs will continue to exist, but the demand for public or private "point to point shared carpool" or "efficient hub-and-spoke" infrastructure and the money will be there to create it.

Many of the 'planned' neighborhoods have homeowner associations. The ones that are senior-citizen-oriented *already* have shopping shuttles etc. This will spillover to all neighborhoods.

Probably bicycles will take a large part in the "first/last mile" portion of the infrastructure -- getting to a neighborhood "transit hub" or the bus stop that is on the major street that many of these enclosed neighborhoods dump out on.

Wogster

The problem is, if you take the typical low density, transit deficient suburb that is so common in the US, then if you have a lot of jobs to fill, and require skilled labour, there may not be enough people in a suburb to supply enough of the right kind of labour, within a small enough geographical area, that people will be able to get to those jobs.

For example, say you need 125 people, 20 of them need to be tool and die makers, another 90 must be skilled machinists who can operate a metal working lathe, drill press and milling machine, which are computer controlled. The remaining 15 people must have various office skills.

If they travel by foot, then they must live within 3 miles of the plant, if they travel by bicycle then they must live within 15 miles of the plant. A suburb with 4 families per square mile, will not have enough people within 15 miles of the plant, and since most suburbs are not dense enugh for transit to make sense, we can't even depend on that.....

maddyfish

Then that buisness will be broken up into to smaller departments, placed where there are workers available, and what can be done in a certain neighborhood, will be done in that neighborhood. Still easier than cleaning out inner cities.

thimblescratch

Buying local will be crucial. Perhaps some of the jobs that are currently overseas come back, companies begin to value the employee once again, job security goes up, and they create campuses around the company, housing and everything centered around the workplace.

I do think if we start NOW we will avoid the majority of the doomsday scenario. But the people (in the US) must begin the change, because the corporations that own this country won't.

I think Cuba is a fascinating story, they went through this and it looks a bit like foreshadowing to me:
https://globalpublicmedia.com/articles/657

Platy

If you'd like to see the amount of engineering brainpower being put into peak oil analysis, take a look at these articles. This is how outsiders know Saudi Arabia's oil production is likely to decline sharply in the next few years.

https://www.theoildrum.com/node/2462
https://www.theoildrum.com/node/2494

Roody

BTW, everybody knows that gasoline is not the biggest use of fossil fuel? Home heating, industry, agriculture all use more than cars do.

I think we'll just start using nuclear power to make electricity for industry and home heating. The electricity would also power cars indirectly by making ethanol or hydrogen, or directly by switching to plug-in vehicles. That's my doomsday scenario. I don't think nuclear is a good "solution". Just the most likely one.

HoustonB

The end of the article posed the most interesting questions; "In the face of peak oil and declining oil production, will America do what it takes to survive, in spite of its ideology of individualism and consumerism? Will Americans come together in community, as Cubans did, in the spirit of sacrifice and mutual support?"

To paraphrase the actor Charlton Heston (that thought he really was Moses and ex head of the NRA) "from the USA's cold dead hands". The American dream looks set to become it's nightmare. Rampant consumerism, unfathomable levels of debt at personal, federal and international levels. Everything about the USA is unsustainable. The only real questions are when will the big crash occur and how bad will the anarchy be?

Being able to cycle to work is not much of a plus, if there is no work to cycle to.

pedex

actually its right around 50% I do believe

gwd

Americans can come together in community in ways that the Cubans could not- we could force the rest of the world and the lowest classes of Americans back to a subsistance level to give the rich a few more generations of consumerism. As the supply of labor increases from population increases and robotics we can reduce workers wages and increase their hours until their every waking hour is spent acquiring sustenence. They will only use the minimum amount of energy to live while well off Americans can continue as usual. We have to prevent other countries from grabbing our oil and resources somehow. If we present the project to Americans in the right way we will come together as a community- War On Terror or Spreading Democracy and Freedom or Protecting Families. Anyway we do it if we can drastically reduce the standard of living for the rest of the world we can live the way we want, delay oil depletion and maybe help the global warming problem too. Imagine if we could prevent China from acquiring resources and they have to go back to riding bikes, then we could keep on driving.

Wogster

Suppose you can't break up the business, because you need expensive machinery, and have heavy metal pieces that need to move from department to department, maybe some of those parts weigh in at over 1000lbs, the transportation costs would be massive, especially if you need to move them by truck.

I don't think most inner cities are really that bad, and those that are, well land developers go where the money is, for 50 years in the US, that has been buying up $100/acre farm land, and developing on that, when oil starts running out, developers will start looking at cities, because that is where the most jobs are, and you will see a transformation, in a city, you see a 25 block area, of abandonned houses, in the middle of the city, some old factories, and maybe a row of old mom and pop businesses that collapsed when Walmart took over, one day it looks like a slum, the next day you see all the windows boarded up, then the construction machines move in, and flatten the whole thing, and you see big holes dug and new foundations laid, and then new buildings rising, and an whole new city. Historiically it's happened before, where 5 or 6 cities were built on top of the ruins of old ones....

bragi

Oh my God! You're Karl Rove!

thimblescratch

What we need is to be less selfish, and consider the future. We, just like the Corporations whose short-sided profit goals have rubbed off on us, have a hard time thinking about consequences of our consumption.

"In every deliberation we must consider the impact on the seventh generation... even if it requires having skin as thick as the bark of a pine."
- Great Law of the Iriquois.

kf5nd

Of course companies, families, and governments will be trying to compensate. But peak oil is going to unfold over decades, it won't be just a one-time event. So, year after year, we'll have "X" percent less than the year before. The previous adapatations will be inadequate for each new price regime. So the price will continually go up, which will force continual adaptation, or doing without.

Well, we are not overdue. We are due just about now, give or take a few decades. Understand that geological predictions are very probabilistic and imprecise.

pedex

problem with the "slow and gradual" theory of oil depletion is that it again discounts the fundamental nature of the problem and doesnt even deal at all with what the ramifications mean

gains and declines are typically measured in %'s..........but what does that really mean? most people dont have a freakin clue

a mere 5% means doubling or halving in just 14 years !!

other big issue here is the side effects, and the big one there is growth........we have an economic and monetary system that is 100% predicated on unlimited growth on a finite planet with finite resources, we in the US are the world's largest debtor nation, once the world wraps its collective head around what peak oil really means guess what? one of the conclusions will be that the US will not be able to grow out of its debt unless an energy source that is portable and at least as dense as petroleum happens, and that isnt looking very good

another issue is once you hit the decline side the cost of producing more starts multiplying instead of small incremental changes they start getting really big really fast

economic contraction for those that have ever actually been thru it(I have) is an ugly ugly process, especially when you get blindsided and go in unprepared, and in the face of a situation where you KNOW that further growth isnt an option, well that kinda blows almost everything we are ever taught right out of the water, our system and way of living just isnt built for this

gwd

Pedex and everybody...It is a fun mental game to think about alternate futures but how should we change our behavior now and why? Going car free for me is fun and all but I'm also helping the car dependent by reducing traffic and saving gas for them so I'm not sure going car free is doing anything positive about this peak oil stuff.

Are there things you guys think I should do for me?

Are there things you guys think I should do for others to help them?