The beginning of end... automotive industry?
#51
☢
Little more than 100 years ago... governments didn't have hardly any regulations for highway use. It didn't matter if you walked, rode your safety bicycle, or saddled on a horse, a carriage, or new fangled horseless carriage.... there just wasn't many restrictions. I can't imagine anything other than increasingly more and more..... restrictions. I hope YOU'RE right... and I am wrong.
Last edited by KraneXL; 06-13-18 at 09:57 PM.
#52
Senior Member
Thread Starter
Join Date: Oct 2013
Location: D'uh... I am a Cutter
Posts: 6,139
Bikes: '17 Access Old Turnpike Gravel bike, '14 Trek 1.1, '13 Cannondale CAAD 10, '98 CAD 2, R300
Mentioned: 62 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1571 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 12 Times
in
9 Posts
Sure! Because no one complains if something brand new that they don't have is regulated. If cyclists end-up regulated to using bike paths only.... what portion of the population would care.... be upset... or cheer because the finger-flippers are off "their" highways? I really hope my thoughts are wrong. But I think road use for bicycles with be restricted as well as for human driven cars. I expect a quick change to all computer control... very quickly.
#53
Been Around Awhile
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Burlington Iowa
Posts: 29,965
Bikes: Vaterland and Ragazzi
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 12 Post(s)
Liked 1,530 Times
in
1,042 Posts
This includes your claims about so-called testing and stats demonstrating how much safer so-called self driving cars are than the current methods. Nothing but guesses founded on your cursory reading of press releases and click bait articles ("historical events" in DaveSpeak) from industry flacks with a stake in the promotion of the latest thing.
#54
Senior Member
Thread Starter
Join Date: Oct 2013
Location: D'uh... I am a Cutter
Posts: 6,139
Bikes: '17 Access Old Turnpike Gravel bike, '14 Trek 1.1, '13 Cannondale CAAD 10, '98 CAD 2, R300
Mentioned: 62 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1571 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 12 Times
in
9 Posts
Of course... self driving works... and will change forever the automotive industry. And with that change will come a huge change in the culture and society we live in. You did read the piece at the beginning of this thread... right?
#55
Been Around Awhile
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Burlington Iowa
Posts: 29,965
Bikes: Vaterland and Ragazzi
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 12 Post(s)
Liked 1,530 Times
in
1,042 Posts
No, no, no.... based on everything I've read this new tech works great. And it/this represents the normal advancement of technology. Since ole Ned Ludd…. took a large heavy tool and severely beat his loom (and supervisor)… tech has advanced faster than people can adapt.
Of course... self driving works... and will change forever the automotive industry. And with that change will come a huge change in the culture and society we live in. You did read the piece at the beginning of this thread... right?
Of course... self driving works... and will change forever the automotive industry. And with that change will come a huge change in the culture and society we live in. You did read the piece at the beginning of this thread... right?
Yes I read the "piece" in your OP, see post #15 https://www.bikeforums.net/20388993-post15.html for my comments.
#56
Senior Member
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 4,355
Mentioned: 90 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 8084 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 14 Times
in
13 Posts
I once heard a bus driver describe their bus as driving more like a Cadillac than other buses. As passengers, we don't generally pay attention to the brand of bus we're in, but we recognize that some buses feel more comfortable to ride in. I think it will be the same with self-driving cars. Some will feel better, look better, etc. and auto companies will put lots of market research and development into figuring out what appeals to passengers in order to market their cars in bulk to ride-share operators that buy lots of cars in bulk.
Probably the more sparsely-populated an area is, the more privately-owned self-driving cars there will be. In more populous areas, there will be more shared self-driving vehicles and less privately owned ones, while the opposite will be the case in less-populous areas, and it will take longer to wait for a ride-share in those less-populated areas because of that, which will prompt more people to want a private self-driving vehicle instead of waiting for a share-car.
Speed limits will decrease and there will be more roundabouts as self-driving cars gain popularity because that allows people to go the same distance in the same amount of time with less stopping and starting. Already these changes are happening because it's just silly to have 45mph speed limits when the average 5-mile trip still takes 15 minutes due to intersections and traffic. Human-driven cars give people the illusion of control over their speed when in reality they are just dependent on traffic patterns, light-timings, etc. When self-driving cars can cooperate to allow each other to enter a roundabout better than humans by adjusting their speed slightly long before entering the roundabout, traffic will flow much smoother without human drivers than with them.
Maybe driving jobs will be replaced with traffic-management jobs where people are assigned to monitor roundabouts and send out signals to certain clusters of vehicles to adjust their speed to stop congestion. Probably algorithms will be able to do a lot, but there may be some subjective/heuristic analysis and tweaking that benefits from including one or more human brains in the traffic management process.
Probably the more sparsely-populated an area is, the more privately-owned self-driving cars there will be. In more populous areas, there will be more shared self-driving vehicles and less privately owned ones, while the opposite will be the case in less-populous areas, and it will take longer to wait for a ride-share in those less-populated areas because of that, which will prompt more people to want a private self-driving vehicle instead of waiting for a share-car.
Speed limits will decrease and there will be more roundabouts as self-driving cars gain popularity because that allows people to go the same distance in the same amount of time with less stopping and starting. Already these changes are happening because it's just silly to have 45mph speed limits when the average 5-mile trip still takes 15 minutes due to intersections and traffic. Human-driven cars give people the illusion of control over their speed when in reality they are just dependent on traffic patterns, light-timings, etc. When self-driving cars can cooperate to allow each other to enter a roundabout better than humans by adjusting their speed slightly long before entering the roundabout, traffic will flow much smoother without human drivers than with them.
Maybe driving jobs will be replaced with traffic-management jobs where people are assigned to monitor roundabouts and send out signals to certain clusters of vehicles to adjust their speed to stop congestion. Probably algorithms will be able to do a lot, but there may be some subjective/heuristic analysis and tweaking that benefits from including one or more human brains in the traffic management process.
#57
Senior Member
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Atlanta, GA. USA
Posts: 3,804
Bikes: Surly Long Haul Disc Trucker
Mentioned: 2 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1015 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 1 Time
in
1 Post
+1. IMO the real world and real weather conditions and the expense of good sensors and unresolved liability issues will keep self driving at bay for much longer than many pundits like to wish.
#58
What happened?
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Around here somewhere
Posts: 7,927
Bikes: 3 Rollfasts, 3 Schwinns, a Shelby and a Higgins Flightliner in a pear tree!
Mentioned: 57 Post(s)
Tagged: 1 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1835 Post(s)
Liked 292 Times
in
255 Posts
As long as my mom is driving me there no machine will do.
__________________
I don't know nothing, and I memorized it in school and got this here paper I'm proud of to show it.
#59
Been Around Awhile
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Burlington Iowa
Posts: 29,965
Bikes: Vaterland and Ragazzi
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 12 Post(s)
Liked 1,530 Times
in
1,042 Posts
"Like to wish" is an apropos description of the "critical thinking" process of BF dreamers deluded by the wishful thinking from pundits and media flacks who regurgitate Silicon Valley press releases.
#60
Senior Member
Thread Starter
Join Date: Oct 2013
Location: D'uh... I am a Cutter
Posts: 6,139
Bikes: '17 Access Old Turnpike Gravel bike, '14 Trek 1.1, '13 Cannondale CAAD 10, '98 CAD 2, R300
Mentioned: 62 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1571 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 12 Times
in
9 Posts
Electric cars have been easily available (and even affordable) in the American car market since 2012. Yet even with (I believe... ) an anxious pool of consumers waiting for electric cars.... far less than a million electric cars have been sold in the US. Yet... Apple has managed to sell over BILLION iphones (since 2007) world-wide.
I myself.... am very active with "smart home" technology (Home Automation)… which has been around for over 40 years. And even with HUGE advancements recently... smart homes are still somewhat (if not extremely) rare. It's hard to figure.
Last edited by Dave Cutter; 06-15-18 at 08:16 PM.
#61
Senior Member
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Atlanta, GA. USA
Posts: 3,804
Bikes: Surly Long Haul Disc Trucker
Mentioned: 2 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1015 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 1 Time
in
1 Post
You may very well be correct. Your guess of the time-table of future events.... should be as good as anyone's… certainly as good as mine. In my lifetime... I've seen some advances take place seemly overnight. Television went from a 3 city market of a few thousand households.... to nearly 80% of America... in a timespan of just two years. At the time.... it seemed like over night. Yet... the "advanced (better) battery" that will change everything.... has been as elusive as flying jetpacks.
Your battery thing is a great example. Of course people would like more powerful longer lasting quick charging lightweight inexpensive batteries. We know the market would be huge especially to improve by orders of magnitude. I don't doubt that improvements will be seen. Maybe even dramatic improvements. But also maybe never. Or at least not till many other enabling and unlikely achievements are made. And when it comes to what discoveries are likely, who the hell can decide that?? If the discovery has already been made but faces some market development issues and economy of scale barriers then yes you could reasonably estimate something forthcoming. But otherwise you have little to go on when predicting specific technologies based on unknown discoveries.
Electric cars have been easily available (and even affordable) in the American car market since 2012. Yet even with (I believe... ) an anxious pool of consumers waiting for electric cars.... far less than a million electric cars have been sold in the US. Yet... Apple has managed to sell over BILLION iphones (since 2007) world-wide.
I myself.... am very active with "smart home" technology (Home Automation)… which has been around for over 40 years. And even with HUGE advancements recently... smart homes are still somewhat (if not extremely) rare. It's hard to figure.
Last edited by Walter S; 06-16-18 at 03:30 AM.
#62
Been Around Awhile
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Burlington Iowa
Posts: 29,965
Bikes: Vaterland and Ragazzi
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 12 Post(s)
Liked 1,530 Times
in
1,042 Posts
People tend to both over-estimate or under-estimate forecasts of technological progress in specific areas.
[SKIP]
I recently setup my home entertainment system around a Harmony Elite. I have a A/V receiver in my closet along with some remote-control devices including a roku, apple tv, google chromecast inputs to the receiver as well as a Echo Dot in my living room also wired to the A/V. When I say "alexa turn on cnn" the system turns on my A/V receiver, selects the roku receiver source, tells the roku to select sling-tv and choose cnn as the channel, turns on my tv screen and picks the hdmi1 input source. Now cnn plays on the tv. If I then say "alexa turn on youtube" it will know the receiver is already on and roku is already selected and will just tell the roku to exit to the main menu and then pick youtube were I see my home feed selections. While this is all cool and I've had fun making it work it did take quite a number of hours to configure it all and work thru the details. Not all of it was obvious. For example the harmony uses RF to talk to a hub in my closet to control my devices. But my tv is not in the closet with the other devices. I could have hooked up a "IR blaster" and wired that so my tv in the living room could receive instructions from the hub. But ultimately I found the hub could be configured to control the tv with IR instead of RF in which case you only need to point the remote at the tv, which comes naturally anyway. But getting all this figured out and teaching the harmony what all my devices are and arranging them into "activities" the harmony understands - that's a lot of work. WAY easier than stuff like this used to be (for example auto-discovery of many devices by scanning your home wifi router). But still a market that IMO is not ready for prime time. It's still for tech people.
[SKIP]
I recently setup my home entertainment system around a Harmony Elite. I have a A/V receiver in my closet along with some remote-control devices including a roku, apple tv, google chromecast inputs to the receiver as well as a Echo Dot in my living room also wired to the A/V. When I say "alexa turn on cnn" the system turns on my A/V receiver, selects the roku receiver source, tells the roku to select sling-tv and choose cnn as the channel, turns on my tv screen and picks the hdmi1 input source. Now cnn plays on the tv. If I then say "alexa turn on youtube" it will know the receiver is already on and roku is already selected and will just tell the roku to exit to the main menu and then pick youtube were I see my home feed selections. While this is all cool and I've had fun making it work it did take quite a number of hours to configure it all and work thru the details. Not all of it was obvious. For example the harmony uses RF to talk to a hub in my closet to control my devices. But my tv is not in the closet with the other devices. I could have hooked up a "IR blaster" and wired that so my tv in the living room could receive instructions from the hub. But ultimately I found the hub could be configured to control the tv with IR instead of RF in which case you only need to point the remote at the tv, which comes naturally anyway. But getting all this figured out and teaching the harmony what all my devices are and arranging them into "activities" the harmony understands - that's a lot of work. WAY easier than stuff like this used to be (for example auto-discovery of many devices by scanning your home wifi router). But still a market that IMO is not ready for prime time. It's still for tech people.
#63
Senior Member
Thread Starter
Join Date: Oct 2013
Location: D'uh... I am a Cutter
Posts: 6,139
Bikes: '17 Access Old Turnpike Gravel bike, '14 Trek 1.1, '13 Cannondale CAAD 10, '98 CAD 2, R300
Mentioned: 62 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1571 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 12 Times
in
9 Posts
I use the terminator quote... to describe technologies progress:
Yes.... I (somewhat) recently set-up several Amazon devices around the home.... as much of my lighting and other devices are also automated. I originally added Home Automation to control my Home Theater, and added voice control more than a decade ago using Microsoft's old SAPI5 Voice Recognition (running 24/7 on an XP laptop). The conversion to Amazon devices was a great step towards reducing the required technology and hardware. I now use a Raspberry Pi and the cloud allows for world-wide control (using my smart phone). But... IMHO I think Home Automation will never be more than a niche market.
#64
Senior Member
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Atlanta, GA. USA
Posts: 3,804
Bikes: Surly Long Haul Disc Trucker
Mentioned: 2 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1015 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 1 Time
in
1 Post
The difference is between locating four different remote controls and operating them correctly in the right sequence versus saying "alexa turn on cnn".
#65
Been Around Awhile
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Burlington Iowa
Posts: 29,965
Bikes: Vaterland and Ragazzi
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 12 Post(s)
Liked 1,530 Times
in
1,042 Posts
#66
Senior Member
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Atlanta, GA. USA
Posts: 3,804
Bikes: Surly Long Haul Disc Trucker
Mentioned: 2 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1015 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 1 Time
in
1 Post
Also cool to me is I have no visible equipment or hdmi cables or speaker wires or even power cords visible in my living room (except for a subwoofer on a shelf and the echo DOT that listens for commands). The speakers and the tv are in the wall. Everything else is behind a shut door in a closet.
Last edited by Walter S; 06-17-18 at 05:21 PM.
#67
Senior Member
Thread Starter
Join Date: Oct 2013
Location: D'uh... I am a Cutter
Posts: 6,139
Bikes: '17 Access Old Turnpike Gravel bike, '14 Trek 1.1, '13 Cannondale CAAD 10, '98 CAD 2, R300
Mentioned: 62 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1571 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 12 Times
in
9 Posts
Another cool function.... Alexa will call, connect, and [then] act as a hands-free phone for.... every number in my mobile phone directory.
#68
What happened?
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Around here somewhere
Posts: 7,927
Bikes: 3 Rollfasts, 3 Schwinns, a Shelby and a Higgins Flightliner in a pear tree!
Mentioned: 57 Post(s)
Tagged: 1 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1835 Post(s)
Liked 292 Times
in
255 Posts
That is like leaving a cellphone near a five year old. Make sure you tell it to ignore that feature until you give it password...
__________________
I don't know nothing, and I memorized it in school and got this here paper I'm proud of to show it.
#69
☢
Does all that technology make you're more connected or less connected to everything around you?
#70
Senior Member
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: Dallas Fort Worth Metroplex
Posts: 5,058
Bikes: 2013 Haro FL Comp 29er MTB.
Mentioned: 9 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1470 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 45 Times
in
35 Posts
That was good, but it made me think, i guess you aren't married or have a interest in another person? MTBing must take up most of your time? LOL
#72
Senior Member
Thread Starter
Join Date: Oct 2013
Location: D'uh... I am a Cutter
Posts: 6,139
Bikes: '17 Access Old Turnpike Gravel bike, '14 Trek 1.1, '13 Cannondale CAAD 10, '98 CAD 2, R300
Mentioned: 62 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1571 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 12 Times
in
9 Posts
I am positive my [mobile smart] phone has increased my connectivity to family. And.... my phone is also pretty solidly "remotely" connected to my home as well. So as far as "operatively connected" to my home... the answer would have to be a yes. But if the connectivity you refer to is the modern emotional connection people feel with other people then no. I don't feel [emotionally] connected to the machinery.
#73
Senior Member
Exactly… It's the beginning of the end of personal car ownership... IMO...
#74
Senior Member
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: Dallas Fort Worth Metroplex
Posts: 5,058
Bikes: 2013 Haro FL Comp 29er MTB.
Mentioned: 9 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1470 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 45 Times
in
35 Posts
Not sure how a shared rental vehicle would feel about a dead animal in the trunk or strapped over the hood. If any of those people had the option of owning a personal vehicle just how long before a we’ll to do business man wanted a stretch self driving luxury car?
#75
What happened?
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Around here somewhere
Posts: 7,927
Bikes: 3 Rollfasts, 3 Schwinns, a Shelby and a Higgins Flightliner in a pear tree!
Mentioned: 57 Post(s)
Tagged: 1 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1835 Post(s)
Liked 292 Times
in
255 Posts
I used to be attached to a battery powered device that took my attention away from the world, but they don't make cassette albums anymore and I want to hear the squealing tires before I die.
I'm practical now.
I'm practical now.
__________________
I don't know nothing, and I memorized it in school and got this here paper I'm proud of to show it.