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Should we expect aluminum frames to get more expensive?

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Should we expect aluminum frames to get more expensive?

Old 03-09-18, 12:51 PM
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TheRef
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Should we expect aluminum frames to get more expensive?

With the recently announced tariffs on imported aluminum and steel should we expect to see aluminum frames to get more expensive? It would definitely close the price gap between aluminum and carbon and likely kill the resurgence of metal frames which would be a pity.

I don't intend for this post to get political but I'm not too familiar with the process of import and export and I'd like to discuss the direct implications to the resurgence of aluminum bikes (and steel for that matter).
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Old 03-09-18, 12:54 PM
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Abe_Froman
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@ ~$1/LB, I can't possibly imagine so.

I mean...perhaps ~$2 per bike if AL priced double.

https://www.infomine.com/investment/m...uminum/5-year/
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Old 03-09-18, 12:57 PM
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How could it affect prices of aluminum frames? Virtually all aluminum frames in the US are imported as finished goods, not tariffed raw materials.
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Old 03-09-18, 12:59 PM
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Originally Posted by Kontact View Post
How could it affect prices of aluminum frames? Virtually all aluminum frames in the US are imported as finished goods, not tariffed raw materials.
The global market will likely get mucked up because of us. Shouldn't have any kind of noticeable effect on the bike world though.
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Old 03-09-18, 01:16 PM
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Originally Posted by Kontact View Post
How could it affect prices of aluminum frames? Virtually all aluminum frames in the US are imported as finished goods, not tariffed raw materials.
+1. However, I only buy foil hats fabricated in the U.S. from fancy aluminum imported from France, so I am bound to pay more.
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Old 03-09-18, 01:26 PM
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+1) they're made abroad anyhow, so US tariff on raw sheet metal really won't apply..

Taiwan does not re import US aluminum, originally from PRC, do they?

Of course not..






...

Last edited by fietsbob; 03-10-18 at 05:09 PM.
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Old 03-09-18, 01:46 PM
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The raw material cost has nothing to do with fair market price. The value of a good is determined by the highest price the market will bear. I wouldn't be surprised if a seller tried to use the 14 cents in material cost as an excuse to add a $10 surcharge to the end user. But it would be a dishonest profit grab based on consumer ignorance. My company did the same with fuel surcharges when gas prices went up, but never repealed when they went down again. Some restaurants are doing the same with automatic gratuities and using the minimum wage law as an excuse to grab another revenue stream...Celebrity Chef Tom Douglas, a chain of mexican restaurants in my town and a Latte stand I no longer frequent come to mind.

In reality though, the pennies in production cost per unit, on the products the tariffs would affect to are so small they will most likely be absorbed by the producer. The savvy producer *may* try the strategy (& why wouldn't they?) But don't be fooled.

Last edited by base2; 03-09-18 at 01:51 PM.
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Old 03-09-18, 01:50 PM
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The spin doctors from the big bike manufacturers will easily figure out how to 'rationale' a bump in price.

At my local gas pumps, a bump in the world price for a barrel of oil translates to a bump in gas prices almost immediately. But inexplicably, it doesn't go the other way.
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Old 03-09-18, 02:22 PM
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I am a serious cyclist so aluminum fames are not on my radar screen anyway.
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Old 03-09-18, 02:34 PM
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Originally Posted by indyfabz View Post
I am a serious cyclist so aluminum fames are not on my radar screen anyway.
Good one!
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Old 03-09-18, 02:51 PM
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If the aluminum (and steel) tariffs cause a glut on the international markets, it is quite possible we'll see the prices of imported aluminum and steel products fall.
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Old 03-09-18, 02:57 PM
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Isn't the USA buying most of it's aluminum from Canada anyway? I think Canada will not be targeted by these tariffs, so I guess it won't change much. Also, I don't think the price of aluminium represent a big share of the full price of a bike. it's probably under 10%.
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Old 03-09-18, 02:59 PM
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No, it won't affect aluminum frames at all for the simple reason that theyre not being built in the USA, and therefore unaffected by the cost of aluminum here.
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Old 03-09-18, 03:00 PM
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Originally Posted by generalkdi View Post
Isn't the USA buying most of it's aluminum from Canada anyway? I think Canada will not be targeted by these tariffs, so I guess it won't change much. Also, I don't think the price of aluminium represent a big share of the full price of a bike. it's probably under 10%.
I'm pretty certain it's under 1%.
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Old 03-09-18, 03:02 PM
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Originally Posted by mpath View Post
The spin doctors from the big bike manufacturers will easily figure out how to 'rationale' a bump in price.

At my local gas pumps, a bump in the world price for a barrel of oil translates to a bump in gas prices almost immediately. But inexplicably, it doesn't go the other way.

Don't you remember gas at $4.50/gal a few years ago? Oh wait, you're Canadian. Never mind.
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Old 03-09-18, 03:06 PM
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Originally Posted by Abe_Froman View Post
That's not political so much as channeling your inner charlottesville...
Yikes... must have gotten into P&R forum and didn't know it... God save the Queen and all of that. Stupid America. Give a Nobel to... Pelosi?
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Old 03-09-18, 03:10 PM
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Originally Posted by FBinNY View Post
No, it won't affect aluminum frames at all for the simple reason that theyre not being built in the USA, and therefore unaffected by the cost of aluminum here.
Until Trump puts a tariff on bicycles.

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Old 03-09-18, 03:12 PM
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Originally Posted by DiabloScott View Post
Until Trump puts a tariff on bicycles.

Don't worry. We can look forward to government subsidies for bikes such as this one:

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Old 03-09-18, 03:15 PM
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Originally Posted by DiabloScott View Post
Until Trump puts a tariff on bicycles.

What was the example... no import duty on motorcycles manufactured in India but they put a 100% import duty on Harley Davidsons? The non-duty import restrictions are the less obvious ways to cheat free and open trade. I remember decades ago Japan required an imported Ford to be completely taken apart and reassembled before it could be sold there... to meet their high standards.
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Old 03-09-18, 03:23 PM
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Originally Posted by McBTC View Post
Not to get political but worthless Eurocommies and lying Chinese are facts of life in global economics and they'll take advantage of a careless and ambivalent America any chance they get.


dots
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Old 03-09-18, 05:28 PM
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Originally Posted by Abe_Froman View Post
Don't worry. We can look forward to government subsidies for bikes such as this one:

Wait, isn't that French?
Sorry, my bad, I see Fuji has trademarked that French town name so it must be Japanese.


Back on track, Aloominum will be more expensive than carbon, hence more exclusive. All the cool kids will be riding it by christmas.
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Old 03-09-18, 06:03 PM
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What exactly is the tax on? Raw materials? That would seem pretty stupid, and force companies to manufacture more overseas.

Structural components such as structural steel and billet aluminum?

It would certainly be fun trying to determine exactly how much steel and aluminum is in a new car.
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Old 03-09-18, 06:21 PM
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An example for the rise in cost of Aluminum was concerning the price of beer. the can uses .03 for each can. the tariff is 10%, which equates to .003 per can. Not much of a price increase if the total cost was passed through.
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Old 03-09-18, 10:10 PM
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Originally Posted by Baldy1953 View Post
An example for the rise in cost of Aluminum was concerning the price of beer. the can uses .03 for each can. the tariff is 10%, which equates to .003 per can. Not much of a price increase if the total cost was passed through.
And yet somehow...

The Beer Institute, a trade group, said the 10 percent tariff on imported aluminum would amount to a $347 million tax on the beverage industry. It estimated that higher expenses and lost sales would force the layoff of about 20,300 workers.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/02/b...-beer-can.html
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Old 03-09-18, 10:19 PM
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Originally Posted by znomit View Post
And yet somehow...

The Beer Institute, a trade group, said the 10 percent tariff on imported aluminum would amount to a $347 million tax on the beverage industry. It estimated that higher expenses and lost sales would force the layoff of about 20,300 workers.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/02/b...-beer-can.html
Image if the government reduced the alcohol tax 1 cent? 20,000 more people would have a job. I know I'll stop buying bear if it goes up 1 more cent per can..

Last edited by u235; 03-09-18 at 10:26 PM.
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