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It's not a hoax

Old 04-07-20, 02:00 PM
  #26  
79pmooney
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Originally Posted by Clyde1820 View Post
History has strictly localized examples only.

...
Native Americans and smallpox 400 years ago? The African population and malaria (twice), perhaps a 1000 years ago. Both reduced populations by as much as 90% (We know this because sickle cell anemia, which should be a tiny percentage of the African population is far higher. The very small percentage of Africans in active sickle crisis survived the malaria scourges because their blood hemoglobin didn't carry enough oxygen for the parasite to live boosting their percentages in the population enormously.
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Old 04-07-20, 02:26 PM
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Originally Posted by washed up View Post
I'm pretty confident this is 100% wrong.

That a 3% fatality rate for a virus that's spreading rapidly would be a disaster? Do tell.

I'm pretty confident you got nothing.
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Old 04-07-20, 02:51 PM
  #28  
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Originally Posted by livedarklions View Post
That a 3% fatality rate for a virus that's spreading rapidly would be a disaster? Do tell.

I'm pretty confident you got nothing.
Every location which has instituted a stay-at-home policy has seen a significant drop in the rate of growth. It's still a little early to tell but one would hope we could get the growth rate down to something similar to South Korea. Hopefully the growth reduction coupled with an eventual vaccine will be enough to prevent most people from being infected.
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Old 04-07-20, 03:11 PM
  #29  
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Originally Posted by gregf83 View Post
Every location which has instituted a stay-at-home policy has seen a significant drop in the rate of growth. It's still a little early to tell but one would hope we could get the growth rate down to something similar to South Korea. Hopefully the growth reduction coupled with an eventual vaccine will be enough to prevent most people from being infected.
We won't get anywhere near Korea. How you start out is probably the single biggest factor in the growth rate. Korea immediately took this seriously. Followed the early cases and who they had contact with. Masks. Got the tests out quickly. Started quarantines early. We had our first case the same time as Korea, spent a month developing a better test to higher standards that didn't work, stopped the work of private companies because they weren't going through the time consuming FDA regulatory challenges, delayed on social distancing and quarantines and generally followed the Italian model. Still have a president modeling the no-mask look. Plus this is a country wedded to freedom of speech and behavior. Nobody's gonna tell us to stay home. We're Americans!

I predict a slower developing and slightly better version of Italy and Spain, but being a much bigger country, the end totals are going to be much higher. Maybe we will be lucky enough to get vaccines out in time. Hopefully those will protect those who take them from those who refuse..

And my cynical comment - the solution is denial. Nobody practicing enough denial will get sick. (Those who fail will get on their tombstones "He died of natural causes. Insufficient denial."

Ben
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Old 04-07-20, 04:28 PM
  #30  
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Originally Posted by 79pmooney View Post
Native Americans and smallpox 400 years ago? The African population and malaria (twice), perhaps a 1000 years ago. Both reduced populations by as much as 90% (We know this because sickle cell anemia, which should be a tiny percentage of the African population is far higher. The very small percentage of Africans in active sickle crisis survived the malaria scourges because their blood hemoglobin didn't carry enough oxygen for the parasite to live boosting their percentages in the population enormously.
Yes, "local" to that community or region. Not global. Disastrous as such diseases were in the Americas for the indigenous populations once Europeans arrived (and brought their illnesses), that regional issue didn't have global impacts.

Which is the point I was making. THIS example is, perhaps outside of the 1918/1919 influenza pandemic, about the only modern example of widespread impacts that can be found. And THIS example is rougher, in a sense, because such global interconnctedness and travel simply has never before existed.

In that sense, it's uncharted territory. And the longer-term global impacts of economic non-activity are hard to predict, given the scale of the shut-down (slow-down). If it lasts too long, whole industries and major players, to say nothing of the "little guys," are likely to get wiped out. Being global in nature, if the damage is too deep, it'll be hard to find the means of relatively easy rebuilding (as, say, was the case at the end of WWII when the U.S. still stood as an economic behemoth, Russia's economy had hit the higher gears, and vast sums of money and effort could pour across the world to aid in the rebuilding). Again, if all of this goes on too long, irrespective of impacts upon the actual individuals who "drop" because of this illness, the ramifications of whole swaths of global socioeconomic activity being more than decimated are hard to predict.

Last edited by Clyde1820; 04-07-20 at 08:09 PM. Reason: grammar
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Old 04-07-20, 04:43 PM
  #31  
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Originally Posted by 79pmooney View Post
We won't get anywhere near Korea. How you start out is probably the single biggest factor in the growth rate. Korea immediately took this seriously. Followed the early cases and who they had contact with. Masks. Got the tests out quickly. Started quarantines early. We had our first case the same time as Korea, spent a month developing a better test to higher standards that didn't work, stopped the work of private companies because they weren't going through the time consuming FDA regulatory challenges, delayed on social distancing and quarantines and generally followed the Italian model. Still have a president modeling the no-mask look. Plus this is a country wedded to freedom of speech and behavior. Nobody's gonna tell us to stay home. We're Americans!

I predict a slower developing and slightly better version of Italy and Spain, but being a much bigger country, the end totals are going to be much higher. Maybe we will be lucky enough to get vaccines out in time. Hopefully those will protect those who take them from those who refuse..

And my cynical comment - the solution is denial. Nobody practicing enough denial will get sick. (Those who fail will get on their tombstones "He died of natural causes. Insufficient denial."

Ben
The thing about Korea is that they tested and tested and tested and tracked and isolated infected people. I dont think any of the Western countries tested such a large proportion of the population, or spent so much time tracing contacts and testing them and isolating them. It takes huge effort but it it has to be less costly than shutting massive portions of the economy down.
Its too late to start doing that now and I'm not sure you could get enough tests even if you wanted to do it.

Pretty sad that we did not learn from the experiences of others.
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Old 04-07-20, 04:57 PM
  #32  
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Originally Posted by Seattle Forrest View Post
Texas Woman Who Claimed COVID-19 Was ‘Media Driven’ Hoax Dies From Virus

A friend sent this to me. The article is written in such a way that I can't quote much without getting this sent to P&R. The title says everything you need to know.

Please take this seriously.
An article from a religious "news" website with a politically charged them vs. us, "I told ya so".

Certainly appears to be P&R material to me.

Why are so many news "articles" and TV news segments just cherry picked summaries of social media quotes? No reporting, just copy and pasting.

Gotta love social media.

Last edited by FiftySix; 04-07-20 at 05:06 PM. Reason: social media
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Old 04-07-20, 04:57 PM
  #33  
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Originally Posted by livedarklions View Post
Gotta push back on one thing--the estimates are that about 70% of the population will end up getting this. A 3% death rate would mean about 7 million deaths in the US. That's horrible numbers. And there's no reason to assume they'll be evenly distributed geographically.
Livedark, are you an experienced expert in epidemiology or virology?

If you are, considering you are a scientist who has worked many years in the field and in the lab studying virii pandemics and epidemics, would you be willing to accept other fellow experts ( equally skilled and experienced ) opinions on the matter? Even if they differ? This would be in the name of science, or truth, of course, which is the objective of science.

In order to be informed, and not a public relations victim, I seek out and interpret different opinions from different experts on issues such as this. They are most certainly not all saying the same thing. A scientific conclusion can not be derived therefore as there exists no concensus.

I'd be happy to entertain your expert and experienced opinion on the subject.
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Old 04-07-20, 05:00 PM
  #34  
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Originally Posted by Seattle Forrest View Post
Texas Woman Who Claimed COVID-19 Was ‘Media Driven’ Hoax Dies From Virus

A friend sent this to me. The article is written in such a way that I can't quote much without getting this sent to P&R. The title says everything you need to know.

Please take this seriously.
Pretty bizarre rant she made, no matter how she died.

Did she die of or with the virus. Any pre-existing conditions she may have had that have been verified? She could have stood to lose some weight by the looks of things. Some reports have been revised to state cause of death as unknown.
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Old 04-07-20, 06:29 PM
  #35  
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Originally Posted by prairiepedaler View Post
Livedark, are you an experienced expert in epidemiology or virology?

If you are, considering you are a scientist who has worked many years in the field and in the lab studying virii pandemics and epidemics, would you be willing to accept other fellow experts ( equally skilled and experienced ) opinions on the matter? Even if they differ? This would be in the name of science, or truth, of course, which is the objective of science.

In order to be informed, and not a public relations victim, I seek out and interpret different opinions from different experts on issues such as this. They are most certainly not all saying the same thing. A scientific conclusion can not be derived therefore as there exists no concensus.

I'd be happy to entertain your expert and experienced opinion on the subject.
I have no idea what that petty personal attack has to do with that quote. The only point I was making is that a 3% death rate on the curve of infections we appear to be on would be disastrous. I have no opinion on the likelihood of that death rate, nor do I know whether or not we know where the peak is going to be, but I did some very simple math using a percentage of infection that I heard Dr. Fauci project, and I come up with 7 million dead. I haven't seen anyone predict a number of deaths anywhere near that, so all I was pointing out is that Clyde throwing that number out like it was no big deal was just wrong.

You might want to actually look at what I'm arguing with before you jump on me because he's actually arguing for a quick end to the shutdown and justifying it by arguing a few million deaths aren't that big a deal.

And virii isn't a word. Viruses is the plural. If you're going to pretend to be well-read on the subject, you should probably know that. And it isn't even correct in Latin.

Last edited by livedarklions; 04-07-20 at 06:34 PM.
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Old 04-07-20, 06:48 PM
  #36  
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Originally Posted by FiftySix View Post
An article from a religious "news" website with a politically charged them vs. us, "I told ya so".

Certainly appears to be P&R material to me.

Why are so many news "articles" and TV news segments just cherry picked summaries of social media quotes? No reporting, just copy and pasting.

Gotta love social media.
Clickbait. I agree it's a very low quality article and didn't recommend it. I distrust anything with an obvious agenda. But it did happen, and that much sets an example for the rest of us. If her death convinces anybody to not take chances on this, that's better than dying for nothing.
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Old 04-07-20, 06:49 PM
  #37  
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Who is to say any of the actual numbers we are getting are factual?

anyone with another serious condition who dies and also has corona is automatically listed as a corona death.

and why are John Hopkins numbers different from the numbers listed by each state?

and the China, Korea and Russia numbers? Ha ha
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Old 04-07-20, 06:50 PM
  #38  
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Originally Posted by livedarklions View Post
And virii isn't a word. Viruses is the plural. If you're going to pretend to be well-read on the subject, you should probably know that. And it isn't even correct in Latin.
What about viratti from the Illuminati? That's an accepted term in peer reviewed science, right?
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Old 04-07-20, 08:40 PM
  #39  
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Originally Posted by Rajflyboy View Post
Who is to say any of the actual numbers we are getting are factual?

anyone with another serious condition who dies and also has corona is automatically listed as a corona death.
As usual, it is the exact opposite of what you claim:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/05/u...ndercount.html

But keep making stuff up. That is the only way we can ever get through this. We have to pretend the problem doesn't really exist.
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Old 04-07-20, 08:48 PM
  #40  
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Originally Posted by Seattle Forrest View Post
Clickbait. I agree it's a very low quality article and didn't recommend it. I distrust anything with an obvious agenda. But it did happen, and that much sets an example for the rest of us. If her death convinces anybody to not take chances on this, that's better than dying for nothing.
Sure, some will learn something from this.

What I wonder is, was this person as well known before she died or did she only become well known after she died?
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Old 04-08-20, 04:58 AM
  #41  
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Originally Posted by Rajflyboy View Post
Who is to say any of the actual numbers we are getting are factual?

anyone with another serious condition who dies and also has corona is automatically listed as a corona death.

and why are John Hopkins numbers different from the numbers listed by each state?

and the China, Korea and Russia numbers? Ha ha

I agreed the numbers are probably wrong. The real numbers are probably far worse. And you're just making crap up to claim an overcount of deaths. Not sure why you want to keep this denial up, but good luck with that. And from the Johns Hopkins faq:

Why does data here differ from data on other websites?

The website relies upon publicly available data from multiple sources that do not always agree. More frequent updates of the map often result in higher case numbers than may be available from other sources that are updated less frequently.
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Old 04-08-20, 07:58 AM
  #42  
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Originally Posted by livedarklions View Post
That a 3% fatality rate for a virus that's spreading rapidly would be a disaster? Do tell.

I'm pretty confident you got nothing.
A 3% fatality rate would be a disaster however, the fatality rate is nowhere near that in the US so saying 7 million people will die in the United States is just irresponsible and wrong.
You made the initial claim so prove it.
I'm pretty confident you got nothing.
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Old 04-08-20, 08:09 AM
  #43  
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Originally Posted by washed up View Post
A 3% fatality rate would be a disaster however, the fatality rate is nowhere near that in the US so saying 7 million people will die in the United States is just irresponsible and wrong.
You made the initial claim so prove it.
I'm pretty confident you got nothing.

All you proved is your lack of reading comprehension. I did not claim that 7 million people would die. I was responding to this:
"A ~3% death rate (if contracted) is nothing to sneeze at. Though it's no smallpox or plague."

My point was that a 3% death rate would be a hell of a lot worse than "nothing to sneeze at" by pointing out that IF it was that high, we could expect 7 million deaths. We all agree that no one is projecting that, and I have no idea where the poster I was responding to got the 3% figure. I know where I got the 70% figure.
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Old 04-08-20, 08:23 AM
  #44  
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Originally Posted by livedarklions View Post
My point was that a 3% death rate would be a hell of a lot worse than "nothing to sneeze at" by pointing out that IF it was that high, we could expect 7 million deaths.
I think the confusion is that the 3% fatality rate that has been reported for Coronavirus is relative to the number of confirmed infected persons not the total population. Given the restrictions on testing it's reasonable to assume the actual fatality rate will be under 1% of those infected.
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Old 04-08-20, 08:24 AM
  #45  
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Originally Posted by livedarklions View Post
All you proved is your lack of reading comprehension. I did not claim that 7 million people would die. I was responding to this:
"A ~3% death rate (if contracted) is nothing to sneeze at. Though it's no smallpox or plague."

My point was that a 3% death rate would be a hell of a lot worse than "nothing to sneeze at" by pointing out that IF it was that high, we could expect 7 million deaths. We all agree that no one is projecting that, and I have no idea where the poster I was responding to got the 3% figure. I know where I got the 70% figure.
You're right...I went back and read the post again. You were not the one making the 3% claim. My bad.
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Old 04-08-20, 08:43 AM
  #46  
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Originally Posted by gregf83 View Post
I think the confusion is that the 3% fatality rate that has been reported for Coronavirus is relative to the number of confirmed infected persons not the total population. Given the restrictions on testing it's reasonable to assume the actual fatality rate will be under 1% of those infected.

My guess is since we really have no way of reliably estimating the actual number of undiagnosed infected at this point, we won't have any real figure until widespread antibody testing is done. I think 3% of infections is probably crazy high.
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Old 04-08-20, 09:47 AM
  #47  
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Who knows

I can't claim to know where this coronavirus came from I will say makes me wonder if our economic system it is totally failed system. We rely on continued ggrowth for it to provide job. Even if no growth was required we still need mass production and consumption of goods for it to provide jobs. So when you have a period where you can't produce you have a period of massive panic for both the health and your ability to support yourself. I have always thought even as a very young man, that a syssystem can not be based on mass production/ mass consumption/ mass pollution. Ultimately I feel this is what needs to be dealt with if we truely care for our children's health. If not then lets just go about our business.....
ps ,​​​​​​the comments on the news ,as to when we will get back to normal? Why would we want to get back to that normal, a system that just feeds on natural resources and polluting ? My pessimism or perhaps realism tells me, we as humans just are not looking at the bigger picture? Who wants to be told we have a whole system we built that is a fail ?? . When you build a bike and it is a fail ,, you just start over, this requires a mind frame change a bit more complicated

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Old 04-08-20, 10:03 AM
  #48  
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Originally Posted by washed up View Post
You're right...I went back and read the post again. You were not the one making the 3% claim. My bad.
I, too, was making no claim of 3% being how it'll end up.

It comes from the actual data, so far, using "3% death rate" as one of the levels reported in nations across the world. Taken from the data the Johns-Hopkins "dashboard" website shows. (Actually, the USA has a 3.2% death rate, of confirmed infections, at least so far.) The number was used for a back-of-napkin eval of what the impacts could be like (above and beyond mere deaths), not as a prediction so much as providing an idea of what that might mean if it did kill that many ultimately. Was merely using the data as shown.

From the Johns-Hopkins website just a moment ago, supplemented with general population figures:
7.8B world population
330M USA population
400K infections confirmed, in USA
0.12% rate of infection, in USA
3.2% death rate of confirmed infections, in USA
1.45M infections confirmed, globally
0.019% rate of infection, globally
83.6K deaths, globally
5.8% death rate of confirmed infections, globally


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Old 04-08-20, 10:31 AM
  #49  
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Originally Posted by Clyde1820 View Post
I, too, was making no claim of 3% being how it'll end up.

It comes from the actual data, so far, using "3% death rate" as one of the levels reported in nations across the world. Taken from the data the Johns-Hopkins "dashboard" website shows. (Actually, the USA has a 3.2% death rate, of confirmed infections, at least so far.) The number was used for a back-of-napkin eval of what the impacts could be like (above and beyond mere deaths), not as a prediction so much as providing an idea of what that might mean if it did kill that many ultimately. Was merely using the data as shown.

From the Johns-Hopkins website just a moment ago, supplemented with general population figures:
7.8B world population
330M USA population
400K infections confirmed, in USA
0.12% rate of infection, in USA
3.2% death rate of confirmed infections, in USA
1.45M infections confirmed, globally
0.019% rate of infection, globally
83.6K deaths, globally
5.8% death rate of confirmed infections, globally



As we know, percentage of confirmed cases is probably close to a totally meaningless statistic since the numbers tested (confirmed) are so much smaller than the likely number of people infected..

I think you made an off-hand comment and I just spelled out the actual implications if you were literally correct. I think we can stipulate that neither of us has any idea what the true death rate is, that it's probably less than 3% of infections, and that neither of us is predicting 7 million deaths in the U.S. and leave it at that.

This conversation got sidetracked by one guy who admittedly misunderstood what I wrote and another who's been using any excuse he can to troll me (he knows who he is). You have, otoh, been very reasonable in discussing our disagreements, and I have no desire to beat the 3% dead horse again. You deserve more respect than that.
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Old 04-09-20, 07:56 AM
  #50  
OBoile
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Originally Posted by Rajflyboy View Post
Who is to say any of the actual numbers we are getting are factual?

anyone with another serious condition who dies and also has corona is automatically listed as a corona death.

and why are John Hopkins numbers different from the numbers listed by each state?

and the China, Korea and Russia numbers? Ha ha
You know, it's okay to admit you were wrong. You don't have to keep doubling down.
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