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Florida Derby Day

Old 03-28-20, 05:03 AM
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Florida Derby Day

And...I don't get to go to the track to see the spectacle in person...

...but, it's still on!

And...it is about the only sport still taking place, so I thought maybe someone, possibly, might have some interest.

You can watch the races live here: https://www.gulfstreampark.com/racing/live-stream

They also have a wagering account site there, or you can bet through the Daily Racing Form: https://www.drf.com/

They still have to take care of the horses, so there is little extra risk to going ahead and running the races without fans. They have extensive testing protocols, and to my knowledge, only one jockey has tested positive. That was Javier Castellano. who was set to ride my pick in the big race. With all the New York jockeys in town, I will take my chances with whoever Pletcher puts in the saddle (Zayas would be my choice, and Leparoux is available, too, but there are many good jocks without a mount in this race...Panici, Landeros, Davis, etc...). So, anyway, I know this is off the radar for most people, but in case anyone is interested, here is what I see on paper:

In race 2, Top Seed looks like value. He was never asked for his best in his maiden win despite pressure all the way around. He probably has more to show.

In race 4, Mr Hustle is 12:1 on the morning line. If you can get double digits on Paco riding a horse that's 3 for 3, you should probably take it.

In race 8, Garter and Tie returns at a level where he made a lot of noise last year against some good horses. The price is right at 15:1 m/l.

In race 9, Newspaperofrecord seems vulnerable at a short price. Her only big number was on a yielding course in a 1:39 mile, BC or not. I will try to beat her with a combination of #2,4,and 9.

In race 11, I doubt the m/l is on the mark for Tonalist's Shape, who will probably be less than 2:1. Spice is Nice seems at least as good, and the extra distance seems to favor her if you can get close to the 3:1 m/l price.

In race 12, Zulu Alpha is probably just too good for them. But, there is no pace signed on, and Spooky Channel could get first run and maybe hang on for second or third at 20:1 m/l.

In the Florida Derby, I like Candy Tycoon. He passed the class test last time, and also passed a lot of horses despite a rough trip. This looks like a pace meltdown, so he should be sitting in the middle pf the pack with something left for the stretch if he gets a better trip this time.

Good luck to anyone who might be playing.
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Old 03-28-20, 05:39 AM
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Best of Luck!
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Old 03-28-20, 05:48 AM
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Good luck.

Santa Anita shut down yesterday. GP may not be far behind.
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Old 03-28-20, 06:19 AM
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Thanks chewybrian, it'll help keep some people's mind off other troubles today. The big races leading up to the Kentucky Derby are going to be kind of anticlimactic this year. I'll watch the Florida Derby for sure. I know the Derby is postponed till Labor day, haven't seen how the horses qualify for it though. How about the Preakness and the Belmont?
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Old 03-28-20, 06:37 AM
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Originally Posted by 308jerry View Post
Thanks chewybrian, it'll help keep some people's mind off other troubles today. The big races leading up to the Kentucky Derby are going to be kind of anticlimactic this year. I'll watch the Florida Derby for sure. I know the Derby is postponed till Labor day, haven't seen how the horses qualify for it though. How about the Preakness and the Belmont?
There is a points system for the Derby that starts with the Champagne and BC Juvenile the year prior and then the big preps, like the Arkansas Derby, Louisiana Derby, Florida Derby and such, with a smaller number of points for the minor preps like the Fountain of Youth. They will lose the Santa Anita Derby and the Wood this year, and probably add points to some of the later races for 3 year olds, like the Haskell and Travers. It's possible the Preakness and/or Belmont could be run first this year--that part is still up in the air. You might want to add an asterisk if someone gets a Triple Crown under these terms, though I would argue it is harder with the split sequence, and does not favor the horses that mature earlier, as the 'normal' format does. The Labor Day weekend Derby gives the strong late bloomers a chance, too, and should be much more competitive as a result.
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Old 03-28-20, 08:09 AM
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Oh yeah, I get the normal point system. It's gotta be different than from years past. If they don't move the other two Jewels, will a horse that wins the Belmont auto qualify for the Derby? Just a lot of variables... It's going to be interesting going forward to say the least.
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Old 03-28-20, 05:40 PM
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I was picturing the Florida Derby being a group if Florida men being turned loose and seeing how much damage they cause during a set time.
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Old 03-29-20, 12:29 AM
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How ironic, as the country goes into lock down with the various laws from state to state. Tiz The Law wins easily.........
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